NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 24th, 2021

NBA DFS Strategy starts with a quality slate breakdown full of tips, picks, plays and strategy. Join MadnessDFS as he...

NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Apr. 24th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/24:

Mar 16, 2018; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Michael Porter Jr. (13) controls the ball against Florida State Seminoles guard Terance Mann (14) during the first half in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Early Slate:

Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 214

Vegas Spread: Nyk -1.5

We’ll kick the slate off with the Raptors, if you’ve been playing NBA DFS for the past few months, you know that the Raptors are a mess right now. They just lost Chris Boucher, so he’ll be out here, but he’s the only guy that’s currently ruled out. That doesn’t mean they won’t rule any more guys out, it’s what they’ve been doing lately, so just keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but we’ll operate under the assumption that outside of Boucher, this team is good to roll. Pascal Siakam has at least 50 fantasy points in two of his last three games and gets a pretty solid matchup here, we know these Raptors starters are going to play big minutes. Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry are pretty similar plays to me, they’re similarly priced as well, but if they’re starting you can go ahead and fire them up. I like the price tag on Lowry quite a bit on FanDuel. Khem Birch is going to have to play even more minutes now that Boucher is out, the price is better on DraftKings, but the PF eligibility on FanDuel is nice on him. Lastly, OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. are solid secondary options especially if you’re playing on the two-game early slate. From the Knicks, Julius Randle bounced back in a big way last time out, he now has at least 64 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. The Raptors have struggled with opposing power forwards on the season as well. RJ Barrett is a guy that I’m fine with if you land on him as a filler piece, especially on FanDuel where he’s SF which can be a tough position to find guys that you love having in there. Other than those guys, you can make a case for Derrick Rose and Reggie Bullock as GPP guys due to their prices.

5-star play: Julius Randle

4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Kyle Lowry, Khem Birch, RJ Barrett, Nerlens Noel

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr., Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock

Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks

Vegas Total: 228.5

Vegas Spread: Mil -7.5

Starting with the Sixers, it sounds like Ben Simmons is going to miss this one again and Joel Embiid comes in as questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him, but he made it sound like he was going to play in his postgame interview on Thursday. These two teams have a race for that #1 seed in the East, so I would imagine he gives it a go. He’s an elite option on this two-game slate on both sites. Tobias Harris is a solid option as well, he’ll take over more usage in this offense with Simmons out. Shake Milton got the start for this team on Thursday when Simmons was out, I would expect they do the same here but he’s a great option if that’s the case at a nice price tag. Then you can round this team out with those three-point snipers in Danny Green and Seth Curry. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo is too cheap on DraftKings. He’s played 35 minutes in two straight games and said postgame on Thursday that he’s treating these Sixers games like a playoff game, he’s absolutely going for it in this one, I’ll probably have him in all my lineups on the early slate. Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton will go back to the backseat now that Giannis seems like he’s fully back, but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, they both are still solid plays especially on the early slate. Then the trio of Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, and Bobby Portis are GPP guys that you can get to here, but nobody that I’m making a priority.

5-star play: Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo

4-star play: Tobias Harris, Shake Milton, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Danny Green, Seth Curry, Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis

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Main Slate:

Detroit Pistons @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 226.5

Vegas Spread: Ind -4.5

Starting with the Pistons, they should be at full strength here so we can’t really just jam in three Pistons and move on, they’ll probably go 12-13 guys deep in their rotation tonight. It is a nice matchup however, the Pacers are playing pretty fast and loose as of late. My favorite guys on this Pistons team would be Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey, and Killian Hayes, they seem like the surest bet to get big minutes. It’s hard to trust the minutes on Mason Plumlee but he played 30+ last game and if he’s going to get that kind of run he’s going to blow his price tag out of the water making him a really solid GPP option. Josh Jackson is another guy I would have interest in for GPPs as well. From the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner will continue to be out which opens up a ton of frontcourt minutes. We saw Oshae Brissett get the start last time out and play 42 minutes. We’ll need to keep an eye on the status of Doug McDermott and Goga Bitadze, but he seems like a solid bet to get big minutes yet again here. If Goga is active he’s a great option as well, he would likely get the start at center. Then the trio of guards on this team are great options as well and had huge games last time out. Malcolm Brogdon would be my favorite but Caris LeVert and TJ McConnell are certainly in play with how much usage is going to be missing from this offense.

5-star play: Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Oshae Brissett, Goga Bitadze

4-star play: Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey, Killian Hayes, TJ McConnell

Deeper Value: Oshae Brissett, Goga Bitadze

GPP Sleeper: Mason Plumlee, Josh Jackson, Doug McDermott

Chicago Bulls @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 206

Vegas Spread: Mia -4.5

Starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine will continue to be out for them, so we can run some data with him off the, I’m going to pull a date range of the past four weeks instead of the season to get a better idea:

  • Coby White – 25.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
  • Nikola Vucevic – 29.1% usage rate; 1.53 fpm
  • Lauri Markkanen – 19.8% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
  • Patrick Williams – 18.0% usage rate; 0.76 fpm

These would be my favorite options on the Bulls, but you can make a case for guys like Daniel Theis, Thad Young, and Denzel Valentine for GPPs. Vucevic looks like a top option at center on FanDuel as well, he and Coby White have looked great in LaVine’s absence. The only issue I have with these Bulls guys is the matchup, the Heat play very slow and play really solid defense. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler comes into this one priced up on both sites but has looked good as of late. I think you can get to him here, I would think we get some decent value on this slate to make him work, but he didn’t look all that special last night. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo, but I do like his price tag on DraftKings, there’s some meat on the bone there. Tyler Herro followed up his good game with a stinker last time out, he’s more of a GPP guy due to the volatility he’s shown this season. Then you can round this team off with a few ancillary tournament pieces like Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, and Goran Dragic.

5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Bam Adebayo (DraftKings)

4-star play: Coby White, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo (FanDuel)

Deeper Value: Daniel Theis, Denzel Valentine

GPP Sleeper: Thad Young, Denzel Valentine, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Kendrick Nunn, Goran Dragic

San Antonio Spurs @ New Orleans Pelicans

Vegas Total: 228.0

Vegas Spread: Nop -3.0

Starting with the Spurs, we’ll need some news from them. DeMar DeRozan comes in as questionable after Popovich TRIED to Popovich some of us last time out. It does look like Dejounte Murray will return here however, you can go right back to him and Derrick White if DeRozan sits. The Pelicans are awful against opposing point guards on the season. Jakob Poeltl has at least 31 DraftKings points in four straight games and seems like a solid option here. Although, I don’t love targeting big men against Steven Adams. Lastly, Keldon Johnson is always in play for GPPs, he’s extremely volatile but we’ve seen a huge ceiling from him this season. I like the price on him much better on FanDuel and he’s SF eligible. From the Pelicans, Zion Williamson is coming off a down game last time out but it was due to getting limited minutes in a blowout. You can go right back to him in this one. Brandon Ingram was on his way to a big game but the same story, he got shut down early due to the blowout. I like him a bit more on FanDuel due to the price and the position scarcity. Lonzo Ball hasn’t been anything special lately, but the Pelicans have also been pretty terrible against opposing point guards this season so you can make a case for him here. Lastly, Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams are fine secondary filler options if you happen to land on them. Not really guys that I’m looking to prioritize though.

5-star play: Zion Williamson

4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Keldon Johnson, Derrick White, Eric Bledsoe, Steven Adams

Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks

Vegas Total: 217.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -2.5

Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis returned last game to play 17 minutes and looked pretty rusty, I’ll go ahead and wait for his minutes to come up before I go back to him. Andre Drummond had his first big game as a Laker last time out in this same matchup, you can go right back to him here in GPPs we know he’s an elite point-per-minute guy. Dennis Schroder had a big game last time out as well, he’s playing big minutes and is a solid secondary option. I probably won’t get to Kyle Kuzma much here, I think you can do better than him in this spot. Lastly, Montrezl Harrell has seen his minutes cut pretty substantially since Drummond arrived and now with Davis back he’ll just be a fade for me here. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic is in better form over the past week or two which is nice to see. Keep an eye on Kristaps Porzingis as he comes into this one listed as questionable. If Kristaps were to miss Luka would jump into elite play territory if he isn’t already there. The rest of these ancillary pieces are just MME guys for me, players like Tim Hardaway, Jalen Brunson, and Josh Richardson.

5-star play: Luka Doncic

4-star play: Andre Drummon, Dennis Schroder, Kristaps Porzingis

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway, Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 230.5

Vegas Spread: Utah -12.0

Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns draws a tougher matchup here with Rudy Gobert but he’ll still get plenty of run which puts him firmly in play here. I like the price quite a bit better on FanDuel however, but he’s in play on both sites due to the implied total in this one. Anthony Edwards had a bit of a dud last game, we may see his production start to come down a bit now that D’Angelo Russell is back in the rotation getting more and more minutes. Speaking of Russell, he has at least 38 DraftKings points in two straight games but has yet to rejoin the starting lineup. Finch said he’s capable of playing big minutes and expects him to rejoin the starting lineup at some point. If he slides into the starting lineup I’ll love him, but he’s a good play regardless. Lastly, Ricky Rubio is a fine filler piece if you need one. From the Jazz, they’ll be without Donovan Mitchell again here, so we can run some numbers with him off the court:

  • Jordan Clarkson – 31.5% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
  • Rudy Gobert – 18.8% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
  • Mike Conley – 23.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
  • Joe Ingles – 16.3% usage rate; 0.94 fpm

These would be the four main guys I have an interest in, you can throw Bojan Bogdanovic in there as well but he’s more of a DraftKings guy due to the three-point bonus. On FanDuel I like pivoting to Royce O’Neale to take advantage of the three-point block/steal scoring. The Wolves don’t play any sort of defense so this Jazz team should have plenty of opportunities to score.

5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns (FanDuel)

4-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns (DraftKings), D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Jordan Clarkson, Joe Ingles

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale

Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 221

Vegas Spread: Den -13.5

Starting with the Rockets, they’re a bit of a mess right now, they’ll be without John Wall, Kevin Porter Jr, Eric Gordon, and Sterling Brown while Christian Wood isn’t expected to play either. It sucks that this is the lone late game because a starting lineup will be huge here. If I had to guess, we’ll see something like Jae’sean Tate, Avery Bradley, Danuel House, Armoni Brooks, and Kelly Olynyk. I’ll have a ton of interest in Olynyk here, he’s been really good with the Rockets since being traded over, and I think you really have to have interest in the rest of these guys as well, they’re going to have to play big minutes. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for news surrounding this one, but I would expect at least one of these guys to make my core plays over on the cheat sheets/coaches notes tonight. From the Nuggets, Will Barton destroyed my lineups last night when he left with injury 30 seconds into the game. He feels like he’s closer to doubtful tonight than anything, so Facundo Campazzo’s minutes are all but locked in if they weren’t already. We should expect to see big minutes from Austin Rivers and PJ Dozier as well. The spend-up guys on this team are going to be Michael Porter Jr. and Nikola Jokic, they’re both great plays in a good matchup… I almost wonder if we see one of them get rested tonight on the back end of a back-to-back against a Rockets team that is without most of their starting lineup.

5-star play: Armoni Brooks, Kelly Olynyk, Jae’sean Tate, Danuel House, Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Facundo Campazzo

Deeper Value: Armoni Brooks

GPP Sleeper: Avery Bradley, Austin Rivers, PJ Dozier

NBA Lock of the Day: Armoni Brooks (DK – $3.8k; FD – $4.2k)

We just touched on this game, but the Rockets are going to be extremely shorthanded which should force Brooks into some huge minutes tonight. He’s played at least 30 minutes in two straight games and makes for a nice value option on tonight’s slate. I would imagine he makes my Core plays on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight. These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action.  And, our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit.  Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…

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Written byMadnessDFS

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