Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/21:

Feb 8, 2018; Tucson, AZ, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Deandre Ayton (13) shoots a free throw during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at McKale Center. Mandatory Credit: Casey Sapio-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!
Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 212.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -2.0
We’ll kick the slate off with the Cavaliers, it looks like they’re finally healthy for once. Jarrett Allen is coming off a real stinker last time out and hasn’t looked all that impressive since returning from injury, so I’ll likely go elsewhere on this slate. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are very similar prices and very similar plays here, I have no issue going to either of them, they’ve both shown a nice ceiling and floor combo as of late. Larry Nance should return in this one but we just haveing seen him be all that productive in the month of April, so I’ll wait for him to show it to me before I go back to him. Lastly, Kevin Love will continue to be in play for tournaments for me due to his upside. He’s gotten at least 30 minutes in two straight and looks to be secured in that rotation going forward. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine will continue to be out for them, so we can run some data with him off the, I’m going to pull a date range of the past four weeks instead of the season to get a better idea:
- Coby White – 25.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 29.1% usage rate; 1.53 fpm
- Lauri Markkanen – 19.8% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Patrick Williams – 18.0% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Bulls, but you can make a case for guys like Daniel Theis, Thad Young, and Denzel Valentine for GPPs. I do like the price on Thad Young much better on FanDuel at $4.8k. Vucevic looks like a top option at center on FanDuel as well, he and Coby White have looked great in LaVine’s absence.
5-star play: Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Coby White
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, Daniel Theis
Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: GSW -2.5
This game should come with plenty of fantasy production as it opens with an implied total of nearly 240. We’ll start with the Warriors, Kelly Oubre Jr. returned last game but Steph Curry didn’t seem to be impacted as he dropped another 60 point night on DraftKings, giving him four of his last five games, I’ll go right back to him here, he’s on a heater. Oubre played just 22 minutes and came off the bench, I’ll stay away from him until he’s back in that starting unit and back up around 35 minutes. Draymond Green is a solid option on both sites, you’ll have a good chance at the double-double/triple-double bonus on DraftKings while he gets a boost on those blocks and steals on FanDuel. I can never get Andrew Wiggins right, but he’s in play for tournaments at the very least due to the pace of this game. From the Wizards, it’s pretty easy, it’s Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal, and that’s about it. Westbrook continues to drop triple-doubles like they’re going out of style, he’s one of the top raw options on the slate on both sites due to the consistent upside and floor he’s bringing to the table. It’s pretty ridiculous that Luka Doncic is more expensive than him on FanDuel. The minutes on Beal have come up, he has at least 35 in four straight and a guy you can go back to here as well. Outside of them, it’s really just Daniel Gafford that I would have any interest in. He has at least 22 FanDuel points in three straight, he’s in play on both sites due to being a PF on FanDuel.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Daniel Gafford
GPP Sleeper: Davis Bertans
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Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -2.5
Starting with the Nets, James Harden suffered a setback yesterday so he won’t be back any time soon for them, while Kevin Durant is considered “very questionable” for tonight’s game with a bruised thigh. If they both miss we can just fire Kyrie Irving back up tonight. He was a bit disappointing last night as he had like 11 fantasy points going into halftime, but he came out alright and is a guy I would get to here if both of these guys were to miss. A guy I got more of than I was expecting to last night was Landry Shamet, and man does he look good right now. He’s probably more of a DraftKings play due to the three-point bonus you get over there but I have no issue getting to him in tournaments on FanDuel if Durant is going to miss again. Bruce Brown looked solid last night as well and is a guy you can get to here, outside of those guys, you can make a case for guys like Joe Harris, Blake Griffin, and Jeff Green in tournaments. However, on a big 12-game slate, I’ll have a tough time prioritizing them. From the Raptors, just keep your eye on the Breaking News Feed when it comes to this team, none of the big names are on the injury report but they’ve been getting fined from the NBA for not reporting their resting players correctly. Kyle Lowry hasn’t played in four games and hasn’t been on the injury report, Fred VanVleet and Pascal Siakam are complete question marks as well. If we don’t get news on them then I guess you can run them out there, but not a team I really want to invest all that heavily in unless we do get confirmation that these guys are out and we can play the scrubs. One guy that will get run regardless is Khem Birch, they want to see what they have in this guy as they round out the season with him. I like him slightly more on FanDuel because you don’t need to use your center spot on him over there.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Landry Shamet, Khem Birch
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Joe Harris
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -10.5
Starting with the Thunder, Lu Dort has looked great over his past few games. He has at least 38.8 FanDuel points in three straight games and gives you a SF option that can look pretty ugly, even on a 12-game slate. The price tag is much better for him on FanDuel as well, but he’s a nice play on both sites considering the matchup. He missed the last game and comes into this one as questionable, so just keep an eye on him. Moses Brown has been all over the place lately, he’s a GPP only guy considering his recent performances. Darius Bazley is in a similar boat, but he’s in much better form as of late, I have no issue going right back to him here. Lastly, Theo Maledon would really be the only other piece I would have any interest in here, he should continue to play nice minutes while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander works his way back. From the Pacers, Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis have been ruled out for this one, so let’s run some data over the past four weeks to get an idea of who to target here:
- TJ McConnell – 19.3% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Goga Bitadze – 20.0% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 24.5% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Malcolm Brogdon – 33.8% usage rate; 1.23 fpm (small sample)
These would be the four guys I have the most interest in. I like Goga Bitadze much better on DraftKings just due to the price differential, and we get two center spots over there so the opportunity cost isn’t as high. But these other three make for great options on both sites outside of him.
5-star play: Goga Bitadze (DraftKings), Malcolm Brogdon
4-star play: TJ McConnell, Caris LeVert, Goga Bitadze (FanDuel), Lu Dort, Darius Bazley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Moses Brown, Theo Maledon
Phoenix Suns @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.0
Starting with the Suns, Devin Booker and Chris Paul kind of grade out similarly in two different price ranges. I’ll like them both a bit better if Ben Simmons ends up sitting for the Sixers, due to the defensive trouble he’ll cause for both of them. That being said, they’re both coming off 50 burgers against the Bucks and are in play regardless here. DeAndre Ayton is a fine option, but he struggled in this matchup last time these two teams played, I would be careful with him, he could pick up some early foul trouble against Embiid down low. Then you can round this team out at the wings with Mikal Bridges and Jae Crowder as filler pieces. From the Sixers, we’ll need some news here as Tobias Harris and Ben Simmons both come into this one listed as questionable. If they’re both out you can go right back to Joel Embiid, in fact, you can go right back to Joel Embiid regardless. He’s been in great form since returning from injury and I think he thinks he still has an outside shot at the MVP award with Harden going down. Outside of him, keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding who is impacted when we get that Harris and Simmons news.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Chris Paul, Devin Booker
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, TBD depending on PHI injury news
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Utah -11.0
Starting with the Jazz, they’ll be without Donovan Mitchell again here, so we can run some numbers with him off the court:
- Jordan Clarkson – 31.5% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
- Rudy Gobert – 18.8% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
- Mike Conley – 23.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Joe Ingles – 16.3% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
These would be the four main guys I have an interest in, you can throw Bojan Bogdanovic in there as well but he’s more of a DraftKings guy due to the three-point bonus. On FanDuel I like pivoting to Royce O’Neale to take advantage of the three-point block/steal scoring. The Rockets don’t play any sort of defense so this Jazz team should have plenty of opportunities to score. From the Rockets, John Wall returned last game to ruin everyone else’s value and play horribly… thanks Johnny. Jokes aside, this is a much better matchup even though it may not seem like one. Even though the Jazz play pretty good defense, they play incredibly fast which bodes well for Wall’s skill set, I like him for tournaments. Christian Wood looked fine last game, he’ll get a tough matchup with Gobert down low in this one however, more of a deeper GPP guy here. Kelly Olynyk had a down game last time out as well, I almost like pivoting off Wood and getting to him due to Olynyks ability to space the floor, but again on a 12-game slate, I don’t think you need to go here. Finally, Kevin Porter Jr. is really just a guy I get to when Wall is out, so not a guy I’m looking to prioritize here either.
5-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, John Wall
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Christian Wood, Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Porter Jr.
Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young is averaging 49.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season. I don’t love the pace of this one, the Knicks play pretty slow, but he’s in play for GPPs on both sites. Clint Capela continues to crush, he has at least 43 fantasy points in five straight games, center is going to be deep today though so more of a GPP guy. Bogdan Bogdanovic is probably too priced up for me with this team starting to get healthy. The minutes will still be there on him, but he won’t have near the usage he had when Young and Collins were out. It’s a big slate so we can afford to be picky here, the rest of this team is just MME-type guys at best. From the Knicks, Julius Randle came down to Earth last night but still a guy that’s going to play around 40 minutes nightly, that’s enough for me to have interest here. RJ Barrett is a guy that I’m fine with if you land on him as a filler piece, but not a guy I’m going to build around. Other than those guys, you can make a case for Derrick Rose and Reggie Bullock as GPP guys due to their prices.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Trae Young, Clint Capela, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, Derrick Rose, Reggie Bullock
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Sas -1.0
Starting with the Heat, we’re going to need some injury news on them as Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler come in as questionable tonight after missing their last game. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they play, if they end up missing, check out the Breaking News Feed for updates on who is impacted and who becomes a good play. Butler’s price is beginning to get up there, especially on DraftKings. He’s probably a bit too overpriced for me, but I do like getting to Bam here assuming he plays. Kendrick Nunn had a massive game last time out and would become a good play again if any combination of Tyler Herro or Jimmy Butler sit. The same can be said for Goran Dragic, the Spurs don’t play very good defense against opposing point guards. From the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan looked fine last game, but he’s priced up especially given the matchup. The Heat play great defense and play really slow, so I’ll likely go elsewhere here. The price on Dejounte Murray is a bit better on both sites, he’s shown a nice floor/ceiling combo this season and is a guy I’ll have some interest in here as well. Derrick White is a fine mid-range option on both sites if you need him, but he’s more of a filler piece. I do like getting to some Jakob Poeltl even on FanDuel if you’re looking to save a little off of the top guys, Poeltl comes in with good recent production. Then, as always, Keldon Johnson is your GPP special. His floor is extremely low, but we’ve seen him pop off for a 50 burger a few times and I would actually consider him in cash games over on FanDuel at a dirt-cheap price tag.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Keldon Johnson (FanDuel)
GPP Sleeper: Jimmy Butler, Keldon Johnson, DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl, Derrick White
Detroit Pistons @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -10.5
Starting with the Pistons, they should be near full strength here which decreases their fantasy value as a whole. Jerami Grant is a fine option but I just have a hard time trusting this Pistons team on a huge slate. Isaiah Stewart is a FanDuel only option for me tonight, not only is he much cheaper, but he’s also PF eligible. Saddiq Bey seems like he’s going to continue to get big minutes regardless of who is active, I’m good with him as a secondary option. Josh Jackson sees the bigger hit with these guys all active, he’s more of an MME guy for me on this slate. I like the price tag quite a bit on Mason Plumlee on DraftKings but man those minutes are going to be hard to trust, it’s going to be hard to use a center spot on him here. Cory Joseph is another guy that should see minutes regardless of who is active, but the price on him has come up as well. Really just a hard team to like on a 12-game slate. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is in better form over his last three games, but I just have a hard time playing him over Russell Westbrook who has been doing it every night for the past three weeks. Kristaps Porzingis is a volatile option but should do what he wants here, he’s a solid GPP guy. The rest of these ancillary pieces are just MME guys for me, players like Tim Hardaway, Jalen Brunson, and Josh Richardson.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Isaiah Stewart (FanDuel), Saddiq Bey, Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson, Mason Plumlee, Tim Hardaway, Jalen Brunson, Josh Richardson
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -1.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been struggling a bit lately, but we know that upside is somewhere in there, the price tag is nice considering the upside but the matchup kind of sucks. Jonas Valanciunas has been ruled out here, so let’s run some numbers with him off the court this season:
- Xavier Tillman – 14.9% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Brandon Clarke – 19.6% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Ja Morant – 30.0% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
It also sounds like Jaren Jackson Jr. could make his season debut tonight, but I would expect him to be limited. Tillman dropped 45 DraftKings points last time out and didn’t see a big enough price boost, he’s an elite option yet again here on both sites. FanDuel did a better job of pricing him up but he’s still a good option. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard is going to be out here, and considering it’s a back to back I wouldn’t be surprised to see Paul George be rested either, but until we hear otherwise he’s a great option and is in awesome form coming into this one. Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson both see a nice boost with Kawhi out as well, this Grizzlies team has struggled with opposing wings this season. Terance Mann has been pretty awful as of late, so I’ll fade him here unless George gets ruled out. Lastly, Ivica Zubac makes sense as a secondary option as well and will see a nice boost with Joe Val out for the Grizzlies.
5-star play: Xavier Tillman, Paul George
4-star play: Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Kyle Anderson, Ivica Zubac
Denver Nuggets @ Portland Trailblazers
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Den -1.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is an elite option here as always. He’s been in great form and taking on even more of a role with Jamal Murray out. Nurkic is a solid defender down low, but Jokic is as matchup-proof as they get, especially against a bad defense as a whole. Michael Porter Jr. continues to put up good numbers and makes sense in all formats especially on FanDuel where SF is ugly in a great matchup. Monte Morris will be out here as well as Jamal Murray who is done for the season, so we should see a healthy amount of Facundo Campazzo and PJ Dozier in this one. It sounds like newly signed Austin Rivers is available to make his debut as well, so monitor this game as to how they use him. Then you can round this team out with tournament options in Aaron Gordon and Will Barton. Barton had a massive game last time out! From the Blazers, it sounds like Damian Lillard is going to return tonight so we can get off CJ McCollum a bit especially now that he’s priced for Dame being out. Lillard scored 50+ fantasy points in this matchup earlier this season and makes for a solid GPP guy. Norman Powell has seen his price come up as well with Dame being out for a few games, he’s more of a GPP guy as well. Lastly, I’m not all that interested in the frontcourt with Jusuf Nurkic available, the matchup isn’t good enough to take the risk on this slate.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Michael Porter Jr., Damian Lillard
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Facundo Campazzo, PJ Dozier, Aaron Gordon, Will Barton, Norman Powell, CJ McCollum
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
We just saw this game last night, so we have something to work off of here. This game has a massive implied total, as both teams don’t play much of any defense. Starting with the Wolves, D’Angelo Russell had a big game off the bench last night and played 25 minutes. Coach Finch stated that Russell is capable of playing heavy minutes and will return to the starting rotation at some point, if he returns as a starter here, I will be all over him in this matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns had a big night last night as well, he’s an elite raw option again here. No issue going back to Anthony Edwards as well, he’s pretty scoring dependent but in a game that will have a ton of scoring, it makes sense. Then you can round this team out with Ricky Rubio as a tournament option as well. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox had a rough game last night but if he’s going to be low-owned due to this, I’ll go right back to him. He’s probably a better option on DraftKings, but you can still make a case for him on FanDuel. He did tweak his ankle last night which played into his production, he comes in as questionable, so just keep an eye on his status. Both Harrison Barnes and Buddy Hield are solid options as well, they’ll play a ton of minutes. Hassan Whiteside started last night, but the minutes are going to be volatile regardless. It’s a great matchup which makes him a solid tournament play. It sounds like Richaun Holmes has a chance to return here but we’ll need that news before you can throw Whiteside in your lineup at his price tag.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell (if starting), De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Anthony Edwards, Ricky Rubio, Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Ricky Rubio
NBA Lock of the Day: Xavier Tillman (DK – $4.2k; FD – $5.0k)
We’re waiting on a bunch of news from the Grizzlies still, but one thing we do know is Jonas Valanciunas will be out here which will lead Tillman to additional minutes and opportunity. With Valanciunas off the court this season Tillman is at about 0.91 fantasy points per minute which is more than enough to pay off this salary. The nice thing about him on FanDuel is he’s PF eligible so he’s not taking up a center spot. The Domination Station currently has him projected to be one of the better point-per-dollar plays on both sites and is a guy I’ll get plenty of exposure to in this one. He dropped 45 fantasy points last time out, so it’s pretty obvious he can handle the role. At this moment I would imagine they make my Core on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, come check out the other core plays as well! These notes include Core plays, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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