Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/31:

Mar 23, 2019; Hartford, CT, USA; Murray State Racers guard Ja Morant (12) attempt a layup against Florida State Seminoles forward Mfiondu Kabengele (25) during the second half of game in the second round of the 2019 NCAA Tournament at XL Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!
Portland Trailblazers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Por -6.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Blazers, Damian Lillard’s price tag is going in the right direction, with CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic returning we knew his production would decrease. I wish he was slightly cheaper yet, but I’m okay with him in GPPs at this rate. McCollum seems to have gone back to the production that we were seeing from him before he was injured. The minutes will continue to be huge on him, he’s a great play. Norman Powell is going to have to share usage with these two guys so I’ll have a hard time paying $7k for him. The same can be said for Enes Kanter, I don’t really want to play him at this price tag with Nurkic back. Nurkic has seen 19 minutes in each of his last two games, going for at least 20 DraftKings points in them both. I think you can do worse in this price range for a center option, especially given the chance that his minutes get raised to the 25 mark. From the Pistons, Dennis Smith Jr. is out, Rodney McGruder is doubtful, and with Delon Wright now out of town, the Pistons are short on point guards. That being said, Saben Lee did see the start the past two games, he played at least 24 minutes in both games while scoring at least 25 DraftKings points. If he starts again here I’ll go right back to the well at this price tag. Keep an eye on what they do with Cory Joseph as well, he’s another potential starter at the position, he scored 35.5 DraftKings points last time out. Outside of them, it’s really just Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant here for me due to how deep the Pistons are going into their bench with rotations.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Saben Lee
Deeper Value: Saben Lee, Cory Joseph
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, still, no Victor Oladipo for them tonight, and Kendrick Nunn is questionable as well. If Nunn is out we should see more secure minutes on guys like Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic who are both hovering around that point-per-minute mark with Nunn off the court. Jimmy Butler is averaging 43.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pacers this season, he’s a solid option but I just don’t love the matchup, this game should be pretty slow and low scoring. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo, he’s fared better in this matchup however going for 47.8 DraftKings points per game against the Pacers this season. You can beat Myles Turner down low with athletic bigs, so I like going to Bam in this one at this price tag. From the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis had a big 60 point fantasy outing last time out but is averaging just 38.3 DraftKings points per game in this matchup this season. The price has come down on his which makes him a little more playable but he’s not a priority by any means. Malcolm Brogdon had a big game last time out, but the matchup was much better. I still think he’s a solid play in this one but Caris LeVert kills his ceiling a bit in less than ideal matchups. Myles Turner is more of a GPP guy in hopes he can rack up some blocks and knock down some threes in the mid-tier center range. Lastly, TJ McConnell makes sense as a last piece in, but not a guy I’ll be prioritizing.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Domantas Sabonis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Duncan Robinson, Malcolm Brogdon, Caris LeVert, Myles Turner, TJ McConnell
Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Mavericks, as always, it’s the Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis show for me again from this team. Doncic bounced back slightly against the Thunder but the game was a blowout so he played just 28 minutes. I have no issue going to him here even after two down games. Kristaps Porzingis has been on a roll lately, picking up the “slack” for Doncic. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in three straight games and his price has come down. The Celtics are going to struggle with opposing big men so I like getting to him here in GPPs. Outside of these two, it’s really just Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway as deeper GPP guys. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown missed the last game and comes into this one listed as questionable so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he plays but we’ll need news on him before we feel all that comfortable going to anyone here. Jayson Tatum has at least 57 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and playing pretty big minutes right now. The Mavs interior isn’t something that scares me either, I like Tatum a good deal here. Kemba Walker continues to look solid, but I just don’t see the upside at this price range, I don’t see him going out there and dropping a 45-50 point game. Robert Williams is going to continue to play big minutes with Tristan Thompson out, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a great point-per-minute guy. If you missed the Evan Fournier debut, well, I think he did too. He played 33 minutes and shot 0-10 from the field on his way to just 10 fantasy points. He’s obviously not going to be this bad going forward, but I would prefer Brown be out to play him again. Lastly, Marcus Smart is a solid last piece for all formats at this price tag.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Kristaps Porzigins, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Marcus Smart
Houston Rockets @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Rockets, Christian Wood missed the last game but comes into this one as probable so I think it’s safe to assume we’re good to go here. It’s an elite matchup against the Nets who are going to struggle with his size on the offensive end making him a solid play if he’s not limited at all. John Wall comes in questionable here, so again watch that Breaking News Feed, he is a guy I’ll go right back to as well, he has a 37% usage rate and 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Oladipo off the court this season and scored 49 DraftKings points on the Nets earlier this season. Kevin Porter got his minutes all the way back last time but shot terribly, I like him as a GPP option and should start alongside Wall going forward. People might chase the Kelly Olynyk games but those were with Christian Wood out, if he continues to start I’ll have some tournament interest, however. The rest of this team just doesn’t do it for me, as I mentioned earlier we can afford to get picky on such a big slate. From the Nets, Kyrie Irving returned last game to play 33 minutes so it doesn’t appear there will be any limitations on him. I like the matchup quite a bit making him a solid option in all formats. James Harden gets another revenge game against his old squad. He scored 73 DraftKings points in this spot earlier on in the season and is an elite raw option as usual. Outside of those two, it’s hard to get all that pumped about anyone on this team due to the usage they’ll have to fight for. Guys like Joe Harris and Nicolas Claxton would be my favorite ancillary pieces.
5-star play: James Harden, Christian Wood (if not limited)
4-star play: John Wall, Kevin Porter Jr., Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Keving Porter Jr., Kelly Olynyk, Joe Carris, Nic Claxton
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Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
If you’ve been reading the Full Court Press throughout the year you’ll know I hate targeting this Jazz team when they’re at full strength, well guess what, we can go to them today! Donovan Mitchell has been ruled out for this game, so let’s run some data with him off the court this season:
- Jordan Clarkson – 31.6% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Rudy Gobert – 20.0% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- Joe Ingles – 15.5% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Mike Conley – 23.2% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
These would be the main four guys I would have interest in with the ancillary pieces in Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O’Neale flying in as tournament options. We will probably see Joe Ingels get the start for Mitchell, I’ll always have some Jingles love when he’s starting. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant is averaging 36.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Jazz this season. It’s a tough matchup, but we know he can get there which makes him in play for GPPs. Jonas Valanciunas has performed well in this matchup too, averaging 39.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Jazz. It’s a tough matchup against Rudy Gobert, but they’ll need his size out there to battle him down low. Dillon Brooks has been solid as of late, but I would want a better matchup to go for any of these other guys on the Grizzlies. With this Grayson Allen questionable and Justise Winslow out it does open up a few more wing minutes to bring guys like Kyle Anderson and Brandon Clarke in to play, but I think we might be reaching at that point due to the size of the slate.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert, Jordan Clarkson
4-star play: Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bojan Bogdanovic, Royce O’Neale, Dillon Brooks, Kyle Anderson
Toronto Raptors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5
Starting with the Raptors, Kyle Lowry only played 24 minutes last game which felt odd, but he wasn’t playing all that great either, so I like this a bounce back for him here at a nice price tag. Fred VanVleet is going to continue to see massive minutes and makes sense as well but if you’re deciding between the two, he’s a solid price tag as well. Pascal Siakam is another guy we can look at here, he had a down game against the Pistons last time out, but I’m willing to overlook it and pick on this young Thunder frontcourt. OG Anunoby continues to produce as well, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in six straight games and playing a ton of minutes. Lastly, Gary Trent Jr. is basically taking on that Norman Powell role but feels a bit too scoring dependent for me to love on this slate. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be out for a while and it sounds like Al Horford’s time with the Thunder may be done. That means it’s Moses Brown time! He just agreed to a multi-year deal with the Thunder, so it’s clear they want to commit to him as their big man moving forward. He has at least 30 minutes in four straight games and should be their starting center moving forward. The price has come way up on him which makes him more of a secondary option for me but we know the ceiling is there on him. Aleksej Pokusevski has put up some big games as of late, but he’s going to be volatile so he’s more of a GPP guy, he’ll see his assist equity pick up with SGA out, however. Lastly, the backcourt is mostly GPP guys as well with Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, and Lu Dort trying to pick up the slack.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Moses Brown
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Aleksej Pokusevski, Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, Lu Dort
New York Knicks @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 218
Vegas Spread: Nyk -4.0
Starting with the Knicks, Julius Randle returned last game to play 36 minutes so he should be without restriction here. It’s a great matchup against a Timberwolves team that is struggling on all facets of their defense but in particular opposing big men. Randle scored 49 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and makes for a strong play here. RJ Barrett is coming off a dud last game, but that game was so ugly I’m willing to overlook it as a whole, I’m good with going right back to him here. Alec Burks saw his minutes come down with Bullock and Rose back last game so he’s overpriced right now. Derrick Rose played 26 minutes last game and seems like he’ll be in that 25-30 minute range going forward, it’s surprising he’s playing this much off the bat as it sounded like he was having a tough time with conditioning after having Covid, but he’s a solid tournament option nonetheless. Lastly, with Mitchell Robinson hurt again you can go right back to Nerlens Noel as the center of this team, he’ll likely see around 30 minutes again. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns has at least 62 DraftKings points in two of his last three games, this is a slower matchup but scored 61.25 fantasy points in it earlier this season, he’s a strong play under $10k on DraftKings. Anthony Edwards didn’t seem too bothered with Malik Beasley returning to the lineup last time out. He still shot the ball 22 times in 35 minutes of work, I’m good going back to him as a GPP option. Speaking of Beasley, he played 30 minutes in his two games back but appears a little rusty, he’s a fine GPP option but I don’t love the pace of this one. Lastly, it’s really just Ricky Rubio that I would have interest in for tournaments but that about does it from this game.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Karl-Anthony Towns
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Anthony Edwards
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Derrick Rose, Nerlens Noel, Malik Beasly, Ricky Rubio
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Sas -2.5
We just saw this game a few days ago so we have something to work with here. Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox is cookin’ right now, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and the Spurs have struggled with opposing point guards this season, but you’ll have to pay for him here as that price tag continues to climb. Richaun Holmes dropped a 52 point fantasy game on this team last time out and is a great option again here against a weak frontcourt. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are solid options as well, they’re going to play big minutes and have been nice producers this season. Hield comes in with the better form if you want to ride each other’s hot streaks. Lastly, Tyrese Haliburton is a strong play in all formats due to his ceiling/floor combo. From the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan has seen his price come down to a more comfortable range, he started slow last game but was able to salvage his night going for 31.75 fantasy points, I have no issue going right back to him here. Just the opposite for Dejounte Murray, he started really well and tapered off toward the end of the game but a solid option here nonetheless. Jakob Poeltl has at least 38 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, I like the price tag under $6k, he’s in play as well. Then we can round this team out with Keldon Johnson as the ultimate boom or bust play.
5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson
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Chicago Bulls @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -7.0
Starting with the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic had 42 DraftKings points last time out against the Warriors. He’s not going to see the same amount of usage as he did with the Magic due to the other pieces that the Bulls have, so at the moment, he’s just overpriced. Zach LaVine feels very questionable here as he nurses an ankle injury, so keep an eye on the status of him. If he’s to miss, Vucevic would be more in play along with Coby White in particular as he would soak up more usage in this offense, he’s also questionable, however, so clearly a spot where we’ll need some news. Thad Young had a down game last time out, with Vucevic in there as well as newly acquired Daniel Theis, it’s going to be a fight to get Thad bigger minutes, he’s overpriced for me in this matchup. From the Suns, they have a similar story as the Jazz, I don’t love getting to this team when they’re fully healthy. It is a nice matchup so you can look toward the big three in tournaments in Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and DeAndre Ayton, but these ancillary guys are more of GPP flyers than anything on a big slate.
***The below is without Bulls players as we wait for status updates on LaVine and White***
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, DeAndre Ayton, Jae Crowder
Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -8.5
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo looked better last game but was still held under 50 DraftKings points. This is a much better matchup overall and will be a nice bounce-back spot for him. I don’t love the price tag on Khris Middleton but he can be played as a GPP option if you happen to fall on him. Jrue Holiday looked great last time out and a guy I’ll go right back to here at a solid price tag. Then you can get to Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo as tournament options. I loved Lopez last game with PJ Tucker and Bobby Portis out, but man was he awful. The same thing applies tonight, he should have those minutes secured with those guys out, but he’s just not been a good basketball player this season. From the Lakers, Kyle Kuzma should continue to see heavy minutes while LeBron and Davis are out, he’s a solid option in a pace-up spot for the Lakers. Montrezl Harrell has at least 40 DraftKings points in two straight and is a guy I like in pace-up spots as well. The same can be said for Dennis Schroder, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a guy that we know can push the ball up and down the court. I do like taking a shot on Talen Horton-Tucker in tournaments if you think the Bucks run away with this one, but the price is just really hard to stomach on him. One last thing to note, Andre Drummond is expected to make his Lakers debut here, he’s not in the player pool for some reason on DraftKings, but he’s pretty cheap on FanDuel… I don’t know how much run he’ll see however, he hasn’t played live basketball in a while as he sat with the Cavaliers.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Kyle Kuzma, Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Khris Middleton, Talen Horton-Tucker, Andre Drummond (FanDuel)
NBA Lock of the Day: Jordan Clarkson (DK – $5.5k; FD – $5.0k)
As I mentioned in the game breakdown, the Jazz will be without Donovan Mitchell tonight against the Grizzlies. Jordan Clarkson should see an increase in opportunity in this one due to this, his price is at a really nice level as well and has some nice upside due to the spot he’s in. The Research Station has him (at the moment) projected to be the highest point per dollar option on the slate at 5.3x, I would even expect that number to come up as the day goes on. At this point in the day, I would expect Clarkson makes one of my core plays over on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, as we know news tends to pop up out of nowhere so this could change so make sure to come join us! These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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