NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Mar. 29th, 2021

NBA DFS Strategy starts with a quality slate breakdown full of tips, picks, plays and strategy. Join MadnessDFS as he...

NBA DFS Slate Breakdown Strategy, Picks, and Plays for FanDuel and DraftKings - Mar. 29th, 2021

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/29:

Feb 2, 2019; Seattle, WA, USA; UCLA Bruins center Moses Brown (1) shoots over Washington Huskies forward Noah Dickerson (15) during the first half at Alaska Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

We’ll kick this slate off with the Pacers, this is a pretty solid pace-up spot for them so we should be able to find a few guys worth noting. Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been as productive over his past few as we’ve seen throughout the season, but he’s still had at least 45 DraftKings points in two of the three games. Malcolm Brogdon continues to show some nice consistency but I worry we’ve lost the ceiling on him with Caris LeVert now in town. Myles Turner has been really solid as of late and the Wizards are at the bottom of the league in defense against opposing big men. Lastly, TJ McConnell makes sense as a last piece in, but not a guy I’ll be prioritizing. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal comes into this one as questionable so we will need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his availability. I’ll operate under the assumption that he is in, but if he does get ruled out that news feed will help guide you to the correct plays from this team. Beal has seen his production come down a bit in the second half of the season, but we know the ceiling is still there on him for tournaments. Russell Westbrook is now healthy and putting up massive games. He has at least 58 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games and is an elite raw option here. Rui Hachimura has been good as of late as well, but coming off a bad game last time out. The minutes will be there on him but I just don’t love the matchup. The rest of this team is basically deeper GPP flyers, I do have a soft spot for Alex Len for some reason. With Mo Wagner out of town, we don’t need to worry about him swooping in and grabbing random minutes so I do like him a bit at this price tag.

5-star play: Russell Westbrook

4-star play: Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner

Deeper Value: Alex Len

GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Alex Len, TJ McConnell

New Orleans Pelicans @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 230.5

Vegas Spread: Bos -4.0

Starting with the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball comes into this one as questionable so keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed again for news surrounding him. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in for the sake of this article. Zion Williamson scored 48.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier on in the season and comes into this one in really good form. Brandon Ingram also had a nice game against the Celtics this season but is coming in off two bad games where he was held under 27 DraftKings points in both. I’ll go right back to Nickeil Alexander-Walker if Lonzo Ball is out, but only if Ball is out, as he’ll likely get the start in that situation. We saw why Eric Bledsoe is priced the way he is last game. He has an upside as we saw against Denver but you can’t chase with him because he’ll go out and give you a 17 point game like last time out. Then you can round this team out with GPP guys in Josh Hart and Steven Adams. From the Celtics, it sounds like Evan Fournier is still questionable to make his Celtics debut, I’ll probably just fade him until we see a significant role from him here. Jayson Tatum scored 51.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier on in the season and the Pels have been struggling on defense which makes me like him a decent amount here. Jaylen Brown had a nice game in this spot as well but coming off two lower-scoring games, we know the ceiling he brings to the table, however. Kemba Walker has been pretty consistent as of late going for at least 30 DraftKings points in his last six games, but I just don’t know that the upside is there on him to pay off a $6.8k salary on DraftKings. Lastly, Robert Williams should continue to play nice minutes with Tristan Thompson out and this team not finding a buyout big man yet.

***The below assumes Lonzo Ball is in***

5-star play: Zion Williamson, Jayson Tatum

4-star play: Brandon Ingram, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams

Deeper Value: Eric Bledsoe

GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart, Steven Adams, Marcus Smart, Kemba Walker

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Brooklyn Nets

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns is back under $10k which is something I always look for. He has at least 56 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and gets an elite matchup here against the Nets. Anthony Edwards didn’t seem too bothered with Malik Beasley returning to the lineup last time out. He still shot the ball 22 times in 34 minutes of work, I’m good going back to him as a GPP option. Speaking of Beasley, he played 30 minutes in his first game in about a month and produced 27.5 DraftKings points, I think he’s a solid option as well. Lastly, it’s really just Ricky Rubio that I would have interest in for tournaments but that about does it from this game. One last thing to watch on this team is Juancho Hernangomez has been getting big minutes and is under $4k on DraftKings if you’re looking for a value option but did see those minutes come down with Beasley back, but I’m not sure that’s directly correlated. From the Nets, it looks like Kyrie Irving will return this one so we don’t necessarily need to force James Harden in. Kyrie’s price is up there though so if you want him you’ll have to spend up for him, it is a good matchup, however. Harden’s rates will take a hit but it doesn’t mean he’s not a great play, he’s still played at least 39 minutes in three straight games. Outside of those two, it’s hard to get all that pumped about anyone on this team due to the usage they’ll have to fight for. Guys like Joe Harris and Nicolas Claxton would be my favorite ancillary pieces.

5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, Kyrie Irving

4-star play: Anthony Edwards

Deeper Value: Juancho Hernangomez, Nicolas Claxton

GPP Sleeper: Ricky Rubio, Anthony Edwards, Malik Beasley, Joe Harris, Nicolas Claxton

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Heat, still no Victor Oladipo for them tonight, and Kendrick Nunn is out as well. With Nunn out we should see more secure minutes on guys like Tyler Herro and Goran Dragic who are both hovering around that point-per-minute mark with Nunn off the court. Jimmy Butler is averaging 50.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season, he’s a solid option but I just don’t love the matchup, this game should be REALLY slow and low scoring. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo, I don’t have an issue going to him here but on an 11-game slate, we can afford to be picky. From the Knicks, Julius Randle missed the last game and is questionable here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. If he plays I don’t exactly love the spot or the price tag, so I’ll probably just go elsewhere up top. RJ Barrett has played at least 38 minutes in six straight games, I would expect that to continue here in a tougher matchup. Alec Burks is playing huge minutes as well, I would want Reggie Bullock to be out for me to pay this price tag on him however, Bullock being out secures those big minutes that he’s seeing. Lastly, with Mitchell Robinson hurt again you can go right back to Nerlens Noel as the center of this team, he’ll likely see around 30 minutes again.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic, RJ Barrett, Alec Burks

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Duncan Robinson, Alec Burks, Nerlens Noel

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Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons

Vegas Total: 218.5

Vegas Spread: Tor -4.5

Starting with the Raptors, Kyle Lowry was a surprise inactive yesterday and comes in as questionable today, keep an eye on his status but I’m assuming he’s good to in this one. He’s averaging 41 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pistons this season and is at a really nice price tag. Fred VanVleet is going to continue to see massive minutes and makes sense as well but if you’re deciding between the two, I’m just going to take the savings on Lowry. Pascal Siakam is another guy we can look at here, he has at least 51 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. OG Anunoby continues to produce as well, he has at least 32 DraftKings points in five straight games and playing a ton of minutes. Lastly, Gary Trent Jr. is basically taking on that Norman Powell role but is too scoring dependent for me to love him on a big slate. From the Pistons, Dennis Smith Jr. is out, Rodney McGruder is doubtful, and with Delon Wright now out of town, the Pistons are short on point guards. That being said, Saben Lee did see the start on Saturday night, he played 24 minutes on his way to 25.25 DraftKings points and makes for a pretty nice value option if he’s going to start again. Keep an eye on what they do with Cory Joseph as well, he’s another potential starter at the position. Outside of them, it’s really just Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant here for me due to how deep the Pistons are going into their bench with rotations. In fact, the Pistons went 13 deep which calls for a fantasy disaster.

5-star play: Kyle Lowry

4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Saben Lee, Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant

Deeper Value: Saben Lee, Cory Joseph

GPP Sleeper: Mason Plumlee, Jerami Grant, Saddiq Bey, Josh Jackson

Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: NA

Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been in much better form over his past few games than he had been previously. I say that as he comes off an 18 point outing last time out, but that was on a back-to-back where he played just 26 minutes in a blowout, so I’m willing to overlook it and go to him in a much better spot here. Jonas Valanciunas is in good form as well and should be able to do whatever he wants against this weak Rockets frontcourt. Dillon Brooks was a fine last night, but hes’ never really a guy I get to all that much, he’s a fine secondary option if you happen to land on him. With this team now fully healthy outside of Jaren Jackson, the minutes are going to be spread out on the rest of these guys to a point where I don’t think you need to go here on such a big slate. From the Rockets, Christian Wood comes into this one as questionable after seeing 36 minutes last time out, if he plays he’s a solid option, he’s had nice per-minute production on the season. John Wall is a guy I’ll go right back to as well, he has a 37% usage rate and 1.3 fantasy points per minute with Oladipo off the court this season. Kevin Porter got his minutes back up to 31 last game and seems like he’s back as a full go, I like him as a GPP option and should start alongside Wall going forward. The rest of this team just doesn’t do it for me, as I mentioned earlier we can afford to get picky on such a big slate.

5-star play: John Wall

4-star play: Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas, Christian Wood, Kevin Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Jae’sean Tate, Danuel House Jr.

Dallas Mavericks @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -9.5

Starting with the Mavericks, as always, it’s the Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis show for me again from this team. Doncic had a down night last time out against the Wolves, but I’m okay going right back to him here due to the production we know he’s capable of putting up in a pretty solid matchup. Kristaps Porzingis scored 62 DraftKings points last time out, but that was with Doncic off the court so we can assume that production comes down as well, but he still makes for a solid play against an inexperienced frontcourt. Outside of these two, it’s really just Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway as deeper GPP guys. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to be out for a while and it sounds like Al Horford’s time with the Thunder may be done. That means it’s Moses Brown time! He just agreed to a multi-year deal with the Thunder, so it’s clear they want to commit to him as their big man moving forward. When he’s out there he’s a great per-minute producer and a guy I like in this spot against a weak frontcourt. Aleksej Pokusevski has put up some big games as of late, but he’s going to be volatile so he’s more of a GPP guy, he’ll see his assist equity pick up with SGA out, however. Lastly, the backcourt is mostly GPP guys as well with Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, and Lu Dort trying to pick up the slack.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Moses Brown

4-star play: Theo Maledon

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Roby, Aleksej Pokusevski, Ty Jerome, Theo Maledon, Lu Dort, Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway

Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs

Vegas Total: 228

Vegas Spread: Sas -2.5

Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox is cookin’ right now, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games and the Spurs have struggled with opposing point guards this season, but you’ll have to pay for him here as that price tag continues to climb. Richaun Holmes is in great form as well and the Spurs aren’t a team that scares me on the interior. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes are solid options as well, they’re going to play big minutes and have been nice producers this season. Hield comes in with the better form if you want to ride each other’s hot streaks. Lastly, Tyrese Haliburton has at least 33 minutes in four straight games and is a solid option in all formats due to his floor and ceiling. From the Spurs, DeMar DeRozan has seen his price come down to a more comfortable range and gets an elite matchup against a Kings team that doesn’t have much interest in playing defense. We kind of know what Dejounte Murray brings to the table from a fantasy perspective, he’s a risky cash guy but has huge upside for tournaments. Jakob Poeltl hasn’t been all that great as of late either but should still see the big man minutes on this team with Aldridge out of town.  Then we can round this team out with Keldon Johnson as the ultimate boom or bust play.

5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, DeMar DeRozan

4-star play: Richaun Holmes, Harrison Barnes, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Haliburton, Dejounte Murray

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 223.0

Vegas Spread: Utah -16.0

Starting with the Cavaliers, Jarrett Allen will be out here, freeing up some big man minutes. We saw Dean Wade get 31 minutes with Allen out last game and Larry Nance will likely slide over and play some five as well. The only issue is the matchup, it’s probably the worst matchup you could ask for for an opposing center. I’m fine with Larry Nance here because we know he can get it done in multiple areas but the price tag is up enough on Dean Wade where I don’t have an issue fading him. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are going to continue to play heavy minutes and make sense here, particularly in tournaments given the size of the slate we can be picky for cash games. From the Jazz, they’re very similar to the Suns that we talk about a lot in that I don’t get to them much when they’re at full strength. Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert highlight the team on the top end, but I just think we’ll have better plays in their price range as the day goes on. Mitchell is in great form. We can probably get some Gobert here as well now that Allen is out for the Cavs, he should be able to do whatever he wants here. Then you get to the mid-range of GPP guys in Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Joe Ingles. This team spreads the ball out really well so I just don’t have a need to prioritize any of these guys tonight.

5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert

4-star play: Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Larry Nance, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Cedi Osman, Collin Sexton, Bojan Bogdanovic, Joe Ingels

Chicago Bulls @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Chi -2.5

Starting with the Bulls, Nikola Vucevic made his Bulls debut last time out and played 32 minutes on his way to 37.75 DraftKings points. He’s not going to see the same amount of usage as he did with the Magic due to the other pieces that the Bulls have, so at the moment, he’s just overpriced. Zach LaVine played 28 minutes in that game and took a pretty big hit when Vucevic was on the court. When he and Vuc were both out there, LaVine had just a 24.1% usage rate which I would think comes up a bit, but just goes to show that he’s not going to have a massive rate like we had seen earlier in the season with another star on the court. Thad Young continued to look good in just 22 minutes, but right now this team is kind of a stay away until we get the price adjustments put in with their new acquisitions. From the Warriors, Steph Curry comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. Andrew Wiggins has looked good with Curry out the past few weeks and is a guy I have no issue going back to here if Curry is forced to miss again. Kelly Oubre is your GPP pivot off Wiggins but you’re hoping he can get hot from the field to get you to that ceiling. James Wiseman has seen his minutes trend in the right direction as of late and makes sense here in tournaments only, he’s going to be volatile just due to his inexperience. Lastly, Jordan Poole will continue to see good run in this one and makes for a solid play in all formats if Curry continues to be out.

***The below assumes Curry is out***

5-star play: None

4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre, Jordan Poole

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: James Wiseman, Draymond Green, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Thad Young

Milwaukee Bucks @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 231.5

Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0

Starting with the Bucks, this team was a disaster on Saturday, as they ruled out pretty much all their regular guys. It sounds like they’ll all return here except for Bobby Portis and PJ Tucker who will remain out. Giannis Antetokounmpo scored 71.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is an elite raw option as always. I don’t love the price tag on Khris Middleton but they’ll need him here, so more of a secondary option. Jrue Holiday was still on a minutes limit when these two teams played earlier in the season, but I do like him here as he likely avoids the George/Kawhi duo on defense. Then you can get to Brook Lopez and Donte DiVincenzo as tournament options. I actually like Lopez quite a bit here, his minutes are going to be pretty locked in with both Tucker and Portis out for this game. From the Clippers, Serge Ibaka continues to be out for this team, so we’ll likely see Ivica Zubac start at the five again. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in five of his last seven games. Both Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are solid plays as well under $9k, it’s a pretty nice pace-up spot for this Clippers team. Lastly, Reggie Jackson is a guy I’ll have some interest in as well, he’s going to continue to start with Patrick Beverley out and sees a usage bump now that he won’t have to deal with Lou Williams coming in on that second unit. Terance Mann has taken on that Lou Williams role over the past few games and looks like a nice value option in that price range.

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George

4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Reggie Jackson, Ivica Zubac

Deeper Value: Terance Mann

GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Marcus Morris, Nic Batum, Terance Mann

NBA Lock of the Day: Reggie Jackson (DK – $4.4k; FD – $4.3k)

I just talked a little bit about Jackson, but I wasn’t expecting to like him this much when I started digging into this slate, yet here I am! With Lou Williams traded and Patrick Beverley out, Jackson will start and pretty locked in to big minutes at a really low price tag. With Lou, Ibaka, and Beverley off the court this season he has a 22% usage rate and around 0.9 fantasy points per minute. The Research Station (below) also shows this to be a +5.0 pace up spot for the Clippers which bodes even better for Jackson.

At this point in the day, I would expect Jackson makes one of my core plays over on our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, as we know news tends to pop up out of nowhere so this could change so make sure to come join us! These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game.  Come inside and check us out!!  We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis.  Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.

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Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action.  And, our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit.  Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…

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Written byMadnessDFS

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