Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/21:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!

Early Slate:

Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0

We just saw this game a couple of days ago so we have something to go off of here. Starting with the Pacers, Caris LeVert has gotten his minutes up into the 30s and should stick there going forward, due to the matchup I don’t have a ton of interest on DraftKings, but I do still think he’s just a hair too cheap on FanDuel. They finally priced him up a bit, but of the two sites, I would get my exposure over there. Malcolm Brogdon has been pretty consistent over his last few games going for at least 34 fantasy points in all of them and is priced nicely here, the price has come down under $7k now on DraftKings which is really intriguing. Lastly, Domantas Sabonis has been pretty boom or bust over the last week. He has two games of over 60 DraftKings points and two games under 40. He scored 39.25 in this matchup on Friday, I still like the price tag though. From the Heat, Jimmy Butler put up 35.5 DraftKings points in this spot last time out. With Bam back and the matchup not being all the great along with his price coming up, I’m okay getting away from him here. Speaking of Bam, he scored 41 DraftKings points last time out and his price has really come down, I don’t love this game as a whole but I think he would be pretty easily my favorite option here. Kelly Olynyk came down to Earth last game, he’s simply outpriced with Bam back now. Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are solid options as well at good price tags, secondary options, but if you land on them I’m okay with it. Lastly, Duncan Robinson is always a GPP option as he can get hot in the blink of an eye, but tournaments only on him as he’s very scoring dependent.

5-star play: Bam Adebayo

4-star play: Caris LeVert, Domantas Sabonis, Malcolm Brogdon, Jimmy Butler

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Myles Turner, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Hou -4.0

Starting with the Thunder, they’re a bit of a mess right now. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Al Horford, Darius Bazley, and George Hill have all been ruled out for this game, so let’s run some numbers on the expected starting five:

• Theo Maledon – 19.9% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
• Lu Dort – 32.2% usage rate; 1.09 fpm (small sample)
• Aleksej Pokusevski – 17.5% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
• Isaiah Roby – 19.4% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
• Moses Brown – 18.5% usage rate; 1.26 fpm

Of the five, my favorite options would be Maledon, Roby, and Brown because we’ve seen them due it without the volatility of Dort and Pokusevski, who are more of tournament options here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. is expected to miss this game as well with injury so take him out of your player pool. Christian Wood got his minutes up to 28 last time out and I would expect he’s right around that 30 range again here. He makes for a solid option even with a small minutes restriction. Whenever John Wall and Victor Oladipo are both healthy it’s hard for me to love them, but this DraftKings price tag on Wall is pretty nice. I would save Oladipo for your tournaments. Lastly, Jae’sean Tate continues to play well and seems to have grabbed that PJ Tucker role on this team, he’s a solid secondary option.

5-star play: Moses Brown, Christian Wood

4-star play: Theo Maledon, Aleksej Pokusevski, Isaiah Roby, John Wall, Victor Oladipo, Jae’sean Tate

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Victor Oladipo

New Orleans Pelicans @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 230.5

Vegas Spread: Den -6.0

Starting with the Pelicans, Lonzo Ball comes into this game as questionable, so keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him and the rest of this lineup, I will operate under the assumption that he is in. Zion Williamson gets a tough matchup against a good interior defense in this one but does have at least 47 DraftKings points in two straight, he’s more of a tournament option. I just haven’t been playing Brandon Ingram this season, he’s taken a back seat to Zion in this offense but we know the upside is there if he decides to take over one game. Lonzo has been on a roll as of late going for at least 36 DraftKings points in three straight games and playing heavy minutes. Then you can round this team out with GPP options like Steven Adams, Josh Hart, and Eric Bledsoe. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic put up a massive game on the Bulls last time out and is an elite raw play as usual here, the Pelicans defense has been pretty brutal as of late. We kind of know the story on Jamal Murray by now, he’s a GPP guy that could get you 60 or could get you 20, but I like this spot quite a bit for him against a struggling defense. Michael Porter Jr. seems to have found his footing a bit as of late, I like him as a tournament option here and we know he has a huge upside as well. Will Barton is fairly priced as a tournament option as well, but I don’t have a strong lean on him in this one.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Lonzo Ball, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Steven Adams, Josh Hart, Eric Bledsoe, Will Barton

Orlando Magic @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 216.0

Vegas Spread: Bos -8.5

We’ll round out the early slate starting with the Magic. Nikola Vucevic put up 58 DraftKings points last time out but struggled in his one matchup with the Celtics this season. At under $10k on DraftKings, it’s hard for me not to have an interest here, however. Aaron Gordon got his minutes all the way up to 36 last time out and dropped 53.5 DraftKings points on the Nets. With that minutes limit lifted, he’s a pretty strong option in this price range. Evan Fournier now has at least 37 DraftKings points in his first two games back as well and makes for a solid option in all formats. Lastly, Michael Carter-Williams is questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him, if he sits we’ll likely see Chasson Randle get the start again. From the Celtics,  Jayson Tatum had a pretty ugly game against the Kings last time out, in fact, this whole team really looked pretty terrible. I’m okay just washing that game from my memory and going back to him in a good matchup. Jaylen Brown was the one guy that looked solid last game going for 45 DraftKings points, I just have a hard time playing him at this price when Tatum is just a little more expensive. Kemba Walker has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games and makes for a fine secondary option here if you’re in need of another guard. Robert Williams has been the lone bright spot in this NBA frontcourt, he now has at least 25 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games, and makes sense as a tournament option here. Lastly, Marcus Smart got his minutes up to 34 last time out and scored 26 DraftKings points, I don’t hate a tournament flyer on him at this price tag in this matchup.

5-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Jayson Tatum

4-star play: Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier, Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Robert Williams, Daniel Theis

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Main Slate:

Washington Wizards @ Brooklyn Nets

Vegas Total: 247.5

Vegas Spread: Bkn -8.5

We kick the main slate off with a gigantic implied total of 247.5, neither of these teams plays much defense and are capable of running, so there should be plenty of DFS options here. We’ll start with the Wizards, Russell Westbrook is averaging 61.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nets this season, and coming off an 82.25 fantasy point outing last time out, he’s an elite option here. Bradley Beal under $9.5k is really interesting as well, he is averaging 52.5 DraftKings points in this matchup, there will be plenty of opportunities for him to grab some production as well. Rui Hachimura came down to Earth in a tough matchup last game but I like this as a nice bounce-back opportunity, he was playing really well for a few games there. You can make a case for whoever the Wizards decide to start at center, but it’s GPP only due to the volatility that comes with guys like Alex Len and Robin Lopez as Mo Wagner has been exiled from the rotation suddenly. From the Nets, it sounds like Blake Griffin has a chance to make his Nets debut here but will be on a minutes limit if so, so he’s not much in play here. James Harden and Kyrie Irving are the pieces you want in this one with Kevin Durant still out. Harden hasn’t played against the Wizards yet this season but you know there’s some “beef” between him and Westbrook, even if it’s not bad blood, they both want to show each other up when they’re out there. Kyrie Irving is averaging 50.6 DraftKings points per game against the Wizards in two matchups with them and is a strong play as well. Then we get to these ancillary pieces like Joe Harris, DeAndre Jordan, and Jeff Green. I wouldn’t have a whole lot of interest in Jordan just because the Wizards can go small and play Avdija as their big and run Jordan right off the court. Lastly, Nic Claxton continues to look good and has at least 23 minutes in two straight games, but he did get a small price bump.

5-star play: Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, Kyrie Irving, James Harden

4-star play: Rui Hachimura, Davis Bertans, Joe Harris, Jeff Green

Deeper Value: Nic Claxton

GPP Sleeper: Deni Avdija, Alex Len, Joe Harris, Jeff Green, Nic Claxton

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: 217.0

Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5

Starting with the Raptors, this team is finally back to full strength so guys like Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, and Chris Boucher are probably a bit too priced up for me as they’re still priced for this team to be shorthanded. You can still get to Powell in GPPs and maybe Lowry, but I struggle to pay that price on Boucher when we know the big thing with him is minutes. Fred VanVleet bounced back last game to score 42.5 DraftKings points and makes for a solid option here. You can say the same for Pascal Siakam who dropped a 50 burger on the Jazz last time out. Lastly, OG Anunoby played 34 minutes in his first game back, so it doesn’t appear he will be limited at all and makes for a solid mid-range option. From the Cavs, Jarrett Allen finally had a decent game last time out against the Spurs, I have no issue going back to him here but no major lean on him in this one. Collin Sexton and Darius Garland are going to continue to play heavy minutes and make sense here, Garland has been in better form but both are solid options due to the minutes they’ll play. Larry Nance Jr. came down to Earth last game but is still getting heavy minutes, he’s still a few hundred dollars too cheap, so he’s firmly in play here as well. Outside of these guys, I don’t have much other interest in this team.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Collin Sexton, Darius Garland, Larry Nance Jr., Jarrett Allen

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, OG Anunoby

Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons

Vegas Total: 217.5

Vegas Spread: Chi -3.0

Starting with the Bulls,  I would expect them to leave Tomas Satoransky in the starting lineup as he’s producing really nicely, he’s finally above $4k on DraftKings but I still think he works in a pinch as a value option due to his performance. Zach LaVine scored 56.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and under $9k is a pretty solid price tag for him, he’s in play for GPPs at the very least. Coby White is a guy I don’t ever get much of, he’s a really volatile tournament option at very best. Thad Young continues to look great even in a matchup against a tough defense last time out, he’s a solid option again here but the price is beginning to climb on him. Lastly, Lauri Markkanen is fine for GPPs as well, he hasn’t been in the best form over his past couple of games but this is a nice matchup. From the Pistons, Jerami Grant has seen his consistency fall a bit as of late, he just feels overpriced right now, but this is a solid bounce-back spot if you want to go here in tournaments. Mason Plumlee has at least 29 DraftKings points in four straight and gets a pretty nice matchup against the Bulls here, I love the price tag on him as well, there’s a nice ceiling on that. Delon Wright is another guy that I like the price on, we know he’s going to play big minutes and it’s a solid matchup against an average at best defense. Then we can round this team out with GPP guys like Josh Jackson and Saddiq Bey as “last guy in” type plays.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Zach LaVine, Thad Young, Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee, Delon Wright

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Tomas Satoransky, Coby White, Lauri Markkanen, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey

Philadelphia 76ers @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 213.5

Vegas Spread: Phi -1.0

Starting with the Sixers, we’ll need some news on this team before we can really break them down, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we await the status of Ben Simmons. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in for the time being. Simmons makes for a great option with Embiid and Curry still out for this team, but he struggled in this matchup last week. It’s a slow-paced Knicks team so nothing I absolutely love. Tobias Harris is a guy I’ll get to regardless of if Simmons plays or not, he sees a big boost with Embiid off the court. He scored 61.25 DraftKings points last night, it was a much better matchup than this one but his price went down a couple hundred bucks as well. Dwight Howard continues to produce good numbers off the bench for the Sixers, he’s a solid mid-range center option. Shake Milton entered the starting lineup last night for Simmons and put up 33.75 DraftKings points in 36 minutes, he’s a good play if Simmons is in and a great play if he’s out. Lastly, Tony Bradley will likely start at the five again and makes sense as a value option in this one. From the Knicks, we’re just going to need some news here… even more so than the Sixers. They have Immanuel Quickley, Elfrid Payton, and Mitchell Robinson all coming in as questionable. We’ll keep you guys updated in the VIP Coaching Forums on this one and will get a better idea of who the plays are once we get some news on this team.

*** The below is without the Knicks, as we wait for news on their injury report ***

5-star play: Tobias Harris

4-star play: Ben Simmons, Shake Milton, Dwight Howard, Tony Bradley

Deeper Value: Tony Bradley

GPP Sleeper: Danny Green

Dallas Mavericks @ Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Total: 228.5

Vegas Spread: Dal -2.0

We just saw this game the other night so we have something to go off of here. Starting with the Mavericks, it’s mostly just Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis that I’ll have an interest in. Kristaps is a guy I like for GPPs at the very least due to the lack of defense in the Blazers frontcourt, he just always seems to be priced a few hundred dollars too high and hasn’t performed all that well against the Blazers this season. Doncic is averaging 65.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Blazers this season and makes for an elite raw play as usual. Then you can round this game out with guys like Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. as GPP options. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard is averaging 51.5 DraftKings points per game against the Mavs this season. The thing that will hurt him is CJ McCollum coming back, he played 28 minutes last game, I want that Lillard price to come down a bit for me to have more interest. McCollum looked really good in that game last time out and would think he gets his minutes into the 30’s here so you can get to him at this price tag. I do like this spot for Enes Kanter, the Mavericks have been struggling pretty heavily against opposing big men and his minutes are incredibly secure right now. Lastly, I got to more Robert Covington that I was comfortable with last night but ended up working out, he’s going to see big minutes as he’s essentially this team’s back up center right now, he’s a solid final piece.

5-star play: Luka Doncic

4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Enes Kanter, Robert Covington

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Enes Kanter, Damian Lillard

Los Angeles Lakers @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 214.5

Vegas Spread: Pho -10.0

The Lakers got some bad news that LeBron James will be out indefinitely with a high ankle sprain, they’ll need to fight like hell to keep this team in the playoff race until LeBron and Anthony Davis return from injury. This is a pretty tough matchup with the Suns, but let’s run some numbers on the projected starting five for the Lakers tonight (and Montrezl Harrell):

• Dennis Schroder – 27.4% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
• Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – 12.9% usage rate; 0.67 fpm
• Kyle Kuzma – 22.2% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
• Markieff Morris – 16.9% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
• Marc Gasol – 12.9% usage rate; 0.78 fpm (small sample)
• Montrezl Harrell – 28.1% usage rate; 1.34 fpm

My favorite options would pretty easily be Schroder, Kuzma, and Harrell of that group. Another guy that I would really like is Talen Horton-Tucker. I don’t know that he’ll get the start but with these two off the court this season he sees a 27.6% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute. This could be his coming out party with LeBron and Davis sidelined for a while, get on him before his price takes a jump. From the Suns, I’m going to have a really tough time getting to them here now that they’re at full strength. I just don’t see how the Lakers keep this one close. If by the off chance they do, Devin Booker and Chris Paul have some nice price tags, but I really don’t have much interest in the rest of this team.

5-star play: Dennis Schroder, Montrezl Harrell, Talen Horton-Tucker

4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Markieff Morris, Chris Paul, Devin Booker

Deeper Value: Markieff Morris, Talen Horton-Tucker

GPP Sleeper: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Cameron Payne

NBA Lock of the Day: Cheat Sheets

It’s Sunday NBA, which means I’m going to keep the lock of the day for VIP Members so grab that promo code below and come join us! I’ll keep the lock of the day in our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes for tonight, as we know news tends to pop up out of nowhere on these big slates, come join us! These notes include a Core, player ranks, and tiers notes, so come check them out! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game.  Come inside and check us out!!  We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis.  Combine that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.

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Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action.  And, our dynamic modeling over at SportsBetArmy adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit.  Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…