Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/23:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Steve aka @Mutt18 on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. We also have NEW pricing options, where you can sign up for WEEKLY access as opposed to be committed for a full month, so you have no excuse to try us out! With that said, let’s get it started!

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Denver Nuggets @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Den -7.5

Here we have the 2nd lowest total on the slate, as the Magic are traveling all the way across the country to Orlando to take on the Magic. There are a lot of rumors about Aaron Gordon being traded, so that is something for us to monitor tonight as it could open up some value for the Magic. However, starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has been a walking triple-double all year long, and he has one of the highest ceilings of anyone on the slate that isn’t named James Harden. Jamal Murray hasn’t been lighting it up as he’s been hampered a bit by the emergence of MPJ, but he’s in play for GPPs as the Magic have been lacking against opposing guards lately. Michael Porter Jr. has also been on his game over the past 2 weeks, and he’s priced right in that mid-range to where if he goes for 40+ he can help you climb the ladder in those GPPs. Will Barton is also playing heavy minutes, but his ceiling is capped as long as Murray and Porter are both healthy. Paul Millsap is also a decent value here, as he played 30 minutes last game and he plays better against bigger 4s like he should be facing tonight. I don’t have any interest in anyone on their bench. For the Magic, there really isn’t a ton to love here unless Gordon somehow gets traded before the game. Nikola Vucevic has been their main source of offense all year long, but the matchup leaves a lot to be desired here going up against the Joker. Evan Fournier has been playing heavy minutes as well, and he gets the best matchup of any of the Magic players, but that’s not saying much. You can also go to Michael Carter-Williams for value but I don’t really see a reason to. Overall I don’t think it’ll kill you tonight to fade the Magic all together unless we get some other news.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Michael Porter Jr., Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier

Deeper Value: Paul Millsap, Michael Carter-Williams

GPP Sleeper: Paul Millsap

Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 224

Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.5

The Wizards really need to get it going here, as their playoff hopes are really dwindling despite having a very talented team. Starting with the Wizards, Russell Westbrook is going to be your main target as the Knicks don’t have anyone that can contain him, and he’s been white hot in all aspects as he can triple-double in any game it seems like at this point in his career. Your other target here is going to be Bradley Beal but his ceiling is a bit capped as long as Westbrook is playing. Rui Hachimura has also been heating up, and his price hasn’t caught up to his recent production especially on FanDuel. Alex Len also played really well last game, but I wouldn’t bank on that here as the Knicks are a much tougher matchup than the Nets, but he is a decent value. They do have a tight rotation as well, and Garrison Mathews has been the main beneficiary of Bertans being hurt, and he’s out again tonight. He’s a decent value as he saw 30 minutes last game but didn’t do much with it. The Knicks are trying to hang onto a playoff spot, and they’re going to continue to play their guys heavy minutes and they have a tight rotation with all the injuries they have. Julius Randle played 46 minutes last game, and he should see 40+ again tonight as he is their main source of offense and the matchup doesn’t get much better. The big news ranges on Immanuel Quickley, as it looks like Rose and Payton are out again tonight, so if he plays then he will be in line for big minutes. Reggie Bullock is a solid value as well, as he should play 40+ minutes here as well as Thibs loves him. RJ Barrett has also been solid, but he’s more of a cash game play with how the usage breaks down for this Knicks team. Alec Burks would be a great play here as well if Quickley if out, but either way he’s solid as he’ll play heavy minutes off the bench and he’s pretty cheap everywhere. Mitchell Robinson has also returned but they’re ramping him up as he only played 17 minutes last game, but it is something to watch as he should take over for Nerlens Noel at some point in the near future.

5-star play: Julius Randle, Russell Westbrook

4-star play: Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, Reggie Bullock, RJ Barrett

Deeper Value: Immanuel Quickley, Alec Burks, Garrison Mathews

GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Immanuel Quickley

Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans

Vegas Total: 220

Vegas Spread: Nop -6.5

For the Lakers, we now have a pretty solid idea of how their rotation is going to shake out with LeBron and AD out, and the main guy we’re going to want to target is Dennis Schroder as he is now the unequivocal leader on this offense as he’ll run the point. Kyle Kuzma has also made his way to the starting lineup, and he played 36 minutes last game so he’s in play in all formats tonight. Markieff Morris started as well, but he’ll lose minutes to Harrell as we saw. Speaking of which Montrezl Harrell has looked absolutely phenomenal in these past 2 games, and he’s firmly in play in all formats here tonight on both sites. Talen Horton-Tucker‘s price also hasn’t caught up yet, even coming off the bench he’s going to be one of the best value plays on this slate once again tonight. Alex Caruso also saw 25 minutes off the bench as well, and he’s a decent value at PG if you need one. Now for the Pelicans, we have a bit of a revenge game for Brandon Ingram here tonight, as he was outcast in the AD trade, I expect him to have a really good game here without LeBron to be there to defend him. Zion Williamson has also been on fire and with no AD or LeBron the Lakers don’t have anyone that can matchup with his physicality, as he should absolutely destroy Kyle Kuzma inside. Big news hinges on the health of Lonzo Ball as he missed last game, if he were to miss again tonight then it would be a nice boost to Eric Bledsoe but it also allowed Nickeil Walker-Alexander to start and play 31 minutes, he’d be a premier play again tonight here for value if Ball were to miss. Josh Hart would also see a nice boost as he plays heavy minutes off the bench and does a bit of it all.

5-star play: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson

4-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Montrezl Harrell, Eric Bledsoe, Talen Horton-Tucker

Deeper Value: Nickeil Walker-Alexander, Josh Hart, Alex Caruso

GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart

Phoenix Suns @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 215.5

Vegas Spread: Phx -1

This game has the lowest total on the slate, so it isn’t one that I’ll be targeting too heavily unless we get some type of injury news. Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul has been the undisputed leader on this team, and he just set a career mark in assists the other night. He’s a great cash game play at his price, but the Suns are fully healthy so his upside is a bit capped. Devin Booker has been heating up, but with CP3 in the fold his assist numbers have really taken a hit which hurts his upside, and the matchup is tough here as he’ll likely see a lot of Jimmy Butler. DeAndre Ayton has been playing horribly, but he showed some signs of life last game, but I don’t like his matchup going up against Bam tonight. Mikal Bridges has been a great GPP play as well, and his upside is there tonight in games like these where he has to do the dirty work. Dario Saric and Jae Crowder have also been splitting minutes at the 4 and its a coin flip between the two as to who is going to have a better game. Now for the Heat, your main target here is going to be Jimmy Butler as he has the highest ceiling of anyone in this game given his ability to triple double at various points in the year. Although the low total he is really the only guy that I’ll go out of my way to play tonight. Bam Adebayo has also been hot as he has 29 points last game and he does it all for this Heat team as well, he is probably the most underrated big man in the NBA. Goran Dragic is on the injury report, if he were to miss then it would put both Kendrick Nunn and Tyler Herro into play, but if he is healthy then I won’t have any exposure to those guys. Overall, I like Butler here but if you were to fade this game altogether I don’t think it will kill you tonight especially considering how good the hammer game should be.

5-star play: Jimmy Butler

4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges

Deeper Value: Kendrick Nunn, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder, Dario Saric

GPP Sleeper: Mikal Bridges

Philadelphia 76ers @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 220.5

Vegas Spread: Phi -3.5

Here is another game that we can target here, as both of these teams are dealing with injury issues and it should stay pretty close here tonight. Starting with the Sixers, Ben Simmons is a premier play here tonight, as the Warriors don’t have anyone that can matchup with him, and he’s their primary ball handler. Tobias Harris is also safe in all formats here, as he has as nice ceiling but his price has come way up with Embiid’s injury. Tony Bradley has been solid as well, but its been a crapshoot guessing between him and Dwight Howard as to who is going to have the better game, I prefer Dwight here tonight. Seth Curry looks like he’s out again tonight as well, which puts Furkan Korkmaz into play here as he started with him out last game. And for guys coming off the bench, your target is going to be Shake Milton as he is a scoring machine for them and the matchup doesn’t get much better for him tonight. Now for the Warriors, it looks like Steph is out again tonight, which makes Jordan Poole a premier play once again. His price has come up quite a bit, but it has been warranted, although I don’t love the matchup for these guards here tonight. Draymond Green isn’t on the injury report either so he’s a nice cash game play as Paschall and Wiseman have already been ruled out tonight so they don’t have many bigs. Juan Toscano-Anderson makes for a solid play here as well as he may start after the dumpster fire that was Alen Smailagic last game, either way he’ll be in line for solid minutes and he’s cheap everywhere. Andrew Wiggins and Kelly Oubre are both in play as well, but their prices have come up as well with Steph’s injury so I won’t be overweight on them here in this spot. UPDATE: Looks like the Golden State bigs will be back tonight, so that takes Juan Toscano-Anderson out of play.

5-star play: Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris

4-star play: Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, Kelly Oubre

Deeper Value: Damion Lee, Juan Toscano-Anderson, Tony Bradley

GPP Sleeper: Juan Toscano-Anderson

Brooklyn Nets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Vegas Total: 233.5

Vegas Spread: Por -4

Now here is the game that we want to target tonight, as we have the highest total on the slate in the hammer game with two teams that don’t play any defense. Starting with the Nets, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant have both already been ruled out for this game, which means that James Harden will be a premier play here with his 35.4% usage rate and 1.63 FPPM with both of them off the floor. DeAndre Jordan also draws a very favorable matchup here as well, as he played solid minutes last game, but Nic Claxton has also been emerging as a threat off the bench, he’s a solid value play tonight as well. Joe Harris will also be in line for more shots tonight as well and he is firmly in play as well. Bruce Brown will also be in line for big minutes as well, and he does a bit of it all when Kyrie is out, he’s a solid play in all formats here given the matchup. Now for the Trail Blazers, Damian Lillard has been heating up, and he draws a great matchup here tonight as the Nets simply don’t play defense whatsoever. CJ McCollum has been trending up as well, but he’ll likely still be on a minutes limit here tonight. Enes Kanter should be in line for a good game here as well, he makes for a nice play at his price given the matchup. Robert Covington could also see a few more shots here tonight as he does a lot of the dirty work for this Blazers team and he thrives in faster paced games like these. Carmelo Anthony should also get plenty of opportunities off the bench to score as he continues to climb on that all-time scoring list and he’ll dominate usage with that 2nd unit. Overall, I will have a ton of exposure to this game for obvious reasons.

5-star play: James Harden, Damian Lillard

4-star play: DeAndre Jordan, Bruce Brown, Joe Harris, CJ McCollum, Enes Kanter, Robert Covington

Deeper Value: Bruce Brown, Nic Claxton, Carmelo Anthony, Joe Harris

GPP Sleeper: Bruce Brown, Nic Claxton

 

NBA Lock of the Day: 

 (James Harden FD: $11,300 DK: $11,000)

Well it appears that the bigs will be back for Golden State tonight, so we’re going to pivot to the guy with the highest ceiling on the slate. With Kyrie and KD already ruled out tonight James Harden will have a 40%+ usage rate and we just saw the other night where he went for 80+ FPs. The matchup is even better here tonight than it was the other night as well, so Harden is my lock of the day. As always, check back here for updates throughout the day, and as always, stay updated in our VIP Coaching forums as news breaks throughout the day!

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