Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/17:

Mar 16, 2018; Nashville, TN, USA; Missouri Tigers forward Michael Porter Jr. (13) controls the ball against Florida State Seminoles guard CJ Walker during the first half in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
I want to give a quick shoutout to VIP Member “TheSoprano12” on their $100,000 win earlier this season!! Better go buy a Boban jersey after that one!
Sacramento Kings @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 245.5
Vegas Spread: Was -3.0
We kick this slate off with a massive 245.5 implied total, so we should be able to find some pieces right off the bat. Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has at least 51 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and I like his chances of continuing that here in a great matchup against the Wizards. Buddy Hield and Harrison Barnes have looked great as of late, particularly Hield. They’ve both been getting massive minutes and are guys I like to get to here. Marvin Bagley is going to miss some time with a fractured hand which all but locks Richuan Holmes into 30+ minutes and is coming off one of his better games of the season. The Wizards rank dead last in fantasy points allowed to big men so Holmes is a guy I like going right back to here. With Bagley out it likely becomes the Nemanja Bjelica show at the PF position. At under $4k he becomes a great value guy and someone who has always been good when given the opportunity. Lastly, it looks like Tyrese Haliburton got his minutes back up to 28 last game, I would think he gets over 30 here and probably frees himself from that minutes limit. I love the price tag on him considering the matchup. From the Wizards, Russell Westbrook and Bradley Beal are the pieces you’ll want here for the most part. They’re both elite options given the pace of this one and how bad the Kings are on defense. Westbrook scored 59 DraftKings points last time out and is a guy I love in this one as well. Beal was the sole reason the Wizards kept the game semi-close with the Bucks last game as he went for 54 DraftKings points, most of which coming in the second half. At under $9.5k, he’s a great option here. Rui Hachimura followed up his 50 point outing with a 41 point fantasy outing. I don’t know if we can keep riding that hot streak but with Bagley out for the Kings, I don’t hate chasing him a bit here. Just know he’s shot extremely well over his last two games and at some point that will regress. Then this frontcourt has been a mess, Alex Len started this game last time out and burned me as the Wizards went small in the second half. I don’t really have any interest in the three stooges consisting of Len, Wagner, or Lopez here.
5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal
4-star play: Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Richaun Holmes, Nemanja Bjelica, Rui Hachimura
Deeper Value: Nemanja Bjelica
GPP Sleeper: Davis Bertans, Tyrese Haliburton
Toronto Raptors @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Raptors, we need some news on these guys before we can truly break this team down. It sounds like Fred VanVleet is closer to the doubtful side of questionable but Pascal Siakam has a true questionable tag heading into this one. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, I will operate under the assumption that they are both out again for the sake of the article. Kyle Lowry has been pretty meh with these guys out, but he really doesn’t see that big of a usage/point per minute bump with them off the court, so I’m not sure the ownership increase is warranted especially at this price tag. Norman Powell continues to be the model of consistency, he’s going to play big minutes as long as VanVleet is out and a guy I like getting to here. Chris Boucher scored 34.5 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and is a GPP guy as always, but his price is starting to get to an uncomfortable point. Then guys like Aron Baynes, DeAndre Bembry, and Stanley Johnson are all GPP value options, but nobody that I love between them. From the Pistons, Jerami Grant had a down game last time out but only played 27 minutes due to a blowout. You can go back to him here if you want, the Raptors have been really bad against opposing PF’s, but I just don’t love the form that he’s been in as of late. Mason Plumlee has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a solid GPP option here. Delon Wright has seen his minutes restriction removed and is still too cheap here, he has at least 31 DraftKings points in his last two games. Then we can round this team out with GPP guys like Josh Jackson and Saddiq Bey as “last guy in” type plays.
***The below assumes VanVleet and Siakam are out again***
5-star play: None
4-star play: Kyle Lowry, Norman Powell, Chris Boucher, Delon Wright, Jerami Grant, Mason Plumlee
Deeper Value: DeAndre Bembry, Stanley Johnson
GPP Sleeper: Chris Boucher, Aron Baynes, DeAndre Bembry, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Saddiq Bey
Brooklyn Nets @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -4.0
Starting with the Nets, both Kevin Durant and Blake Griffin will be inactive here so it will be the James Harden and Kyrie Irving show. Harden scored 64 DraftKings points last time out but sees a pretty heavy pace down spot here against the Pacers. He’s a fine option here, the Nets have actually played a bit slower as of late as well, but I guess that’s to be expected when James Harden dribbles the ball as much as he does. Kyrie Irving scored 58 DraftKings points against the Pacers earlier this season and around $9k is a price point where I’ll have some interest in him. Bruce Brown has now been held under 10 DraftKings points in three straight, he’s a straight fade until he proves otherwise. DeAndre Jordan is a fine mid-range cash option but he doesn’t bring much upside with him, I don’t see myself getting a ton of him here either. I would rather take a value shot on Nic Claxton at under $4k, his minutes have been pretty consistent, and got near 20 last time out, he’s not going to see huge minutes but he’s been effective in his short spurts. From the Pacers, Caris LeVert played 29 minutes on his way to 29.5 DraftKings points, I don’t have much interest in him on DraftKings, but FanDuel doesn’t feel like adjusting his price apparently, he’s certainly in play at $4.4k over there. Malcolm Brogdon has been pretty consistent over his last few games going for at least 38 fantasy points in all of them and is priced nicely here. Lastly, Domantas Sabonis is a guy I like a good deal here. The Nets won’t have an answer for him defensively and his price has come down a bit from what we saw toward the end of last week.
5-star play: James Harden, Domantas Sabonis, Caris LeVert (FanDuel)
4-star play: Kyrie Irving, Malcolm Brogdon, Myles Turner
Deeper Value: Nic Claxton
GPP Sleeper: DeAndre Jordan, Joe Harris
Milwaukee Bucks @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 236
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.5
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo has at least 70 DraftKings points in two straight games and is an elite raw option as always particularly with Joel Embiid not clogging up the paint for the Sixers right now. Khris Middleton looked solid last game in 34 minutes, his price isn’t anything that I want to target, but I’m okay playing him if I land on him here. Jrue Holiday appears to be off his minutes limit and his price came down from the last game. I think he’s a really strong option at this price tag. Then the trio of Donte DiVincenzo, Brook Lopez, and Bobby Portis are all volatile tournament options to round out this game, all of them looked pretty solid last time out especially DiVincenzo and Portis. You can make a case for DiVincenzo for cash as well, he’s been in really good form. From the Sixers, here is how the team fares with Joel Embiid off the court this season:
- Ben Simmons – 23.2% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 28.4% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Dwight Howard – 18% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Shake Milton – 28% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
These would be my favorite options on this team, you can make a case for guys like Seth Curry and Danny Green due to the amount of three’s this Bucks team is giving up but nothing that I love. Tony Bradley will also see extended minutes as well if you want him as a value option.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: Tony Bradley
GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Dwight Howard, Shake Milton, Seth Curry
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum has at least 42 DraftKings points inf rout straight games and seems like a good option to keep that going tonight, he’s seen a ton of minutes and is priced nicely. We finally got a bigger game out Jaylen Brown last time out as he went for 50 DraftKings points and his price has come down to a more playable range, he’s a guy I don’t mind getting to here either. Kemba Walker scored 40.75 fantasy points in this spot earlier this season in just 23 minutes, I don’t love him here as I think I would just find the money for Brown but he’s a fine GPP guy. Robert Williams has been the lone bright spot in this frontcourt, he now has at least 25 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and if Tristan Thompson is forced to miss again here he makes sense as a GPP guy. Lastly, Marcus Smart got his minutes up to 25 last time out, but he’s still too priced up for me to have much interest. From the Cavs, Jarrett Allen has been in a bit of a rut being held under 25 fantasy points in two of his last three. That said, he should do what he wants against this Celtics frontcourt. Collin Sexton hasn’t been so great as of late either after he dropped that 50 burger on the Pacers, I don’t mind getting to him for GPPs. Darius Garland returned last game and didn’t seem to be limited at all but didn’t look all that great either. This was a tough matchup against the Heat, so I don’t mind going back to him here. Lastly, Larry Nance Jr. is a guy I like a lot here with Kevin Love likely out. He played 38 minutes last game on his way to 34 DraftKings points. At this price tag, it’s really hard not to like him.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Kemba Walker, Robert Williams, Collin Sexton, Jarrett Allen, Larry Nance Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kemba Walker, Robert Williams, Darius Garland
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Golden State Warriors @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry looked pretty solid before being removed due to blowout last game, he should do what he wants here, the Rockets have been dreadful as of late. I like him in all formats especially under $10k. Draymond Green had a down game last time out, but as I mentioned they were blown out pretty good, I would expect his minutes to come back up in this one. Kelly Oubre and Andrew Wiggins are fine GPP options, as usual, coming off the wing. Lastly, James Wiseman saw his minutes get up to 28 last game. That may have been due to the blowout as well as they try to get the rookie some run, but if he’s going to see 25+ minutes, I want him, especially in this matchup. From the Rockets, it sounds like there’s a chance Christian Wood could return here so watch out for that news, I would expect he’s on a minutes limit if he does, however. Victor Oladipo will miss this game as well, so we can go right back to Kevin Porter Jr., who saw a price decrease from yesterday. He has at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his first four games as a Rocket and getting all the minutes he can handle. He’ll be a staple of a lot of my lineups. Jae’sean Tate had a really nice game last night but gets a tougher matchup tonight as he’ll likely see a lot of Draymond Green down low. Lastly, KJ Martin Jr. is a guy I don’t mind going back to as well, the minutes will be there on him, and has produced nicely in most of his game as of late. You can make a case for Sterling Brown as well who dropped 29 DraftKings points in last night’s game.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Kevin Porter Jr.
4-star play: Draymond Green, Jae’sean Tate, Sterling Brown, KJ Martin
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre, Andrew Wiggins, James Wiseman, Sterling Brown, KJ Martin Jr.
San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Spurs, it sounds like DeMar DeRozan will miss this game as well due to personal reasons. We kind of know what Dejounte Murray is at this point, he can be a consistent producer with massive upside, I have no issue with him here especially in a nice matchup with the Bulls. Jakob Poeltl looked great last game and his minutes are more secure now with Aldridge off the team, I like him in this spot as well. The same can be said for Rudy Gay, I don’t love the upside on him, however. Derrick White had a down game last time out but he’s a guy I’ll go back to as long as DeRozan is out for the Spurs. Lastly, I may need to just see if from Keldon Johnson before I go to him with any sort of real ownership, he’s been terrible. From the Bulls, I would expect them to leave Tomas Satoransky in the starting lineup as he’s producing really nicely and DraftKings just hasn’t priced him up for some reason. He’s a great value option should he continue to start especially against the Spurs who have struggled with opposing point guards all season. Zach LaVine has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is a guy I’ll have interest in anytime he’s under $9k. Coby White is a guy I don’t ever get much of, he’s a really volatile tournament option at very best. Thad Young had a big night last night but didn’t start the second half, so keep an eye on if he’s starting this one or not. Regardless, he’s a solid secondary option due to his consistency. Lastly, Lauri Markkanen has at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and under $6k is a price I like to see.
5-star play: Zach LaVine
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Derrick White, Tomas Satoransky, Lauri Markkanen, Thad Young
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Rudy Gay, Keldon Johnson, Coby White, Thad Young
Miami Heat @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -1.0
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler kept his hot streak going last night even with Bam Adebayo back in the lineup. I’m more than okay with going back to him and riding this streak out in a good matchup. Speaking of Bam, he played minutes into the 30’s last night, so it doesn’t appear he’ll have any sort of restriction moving forward. Kelly Olynyk kept his hot streak going as well, but I’m less likely to keep riding him out with the price tag he has now. His rebound equity will go down with Bam back in there. Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are solid options as well at good price tags, secondary options, but if you land on them I’m okay with it. Lastly, Duncan Robinson is always a GPP option as he can get hot in the blink of an eye, but tournaments only on him as he’s very scoring dependent. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant had a tough go of it last time out against the Suns and this matchup isn’t a whole lot better. The Heat are playing really slow and good defense as well. Jonas Valanciunas is always in play for GPPs, as it seems he can drop a 60 point game out of nowhere, so I’m good with him in tournaments. Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are fine mid-range options on this team but nobody that I’m prioritizing on this slate. Then guys like Justise Winslow and De’Anthony Melton are sort of priced out with this team healthy. Now that this team is pretty much at full strength minus Jaren Jackson, it’s going to be tough to get too much of them outside of Joe Val and Morant.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Bam Adebayo, Goran Dragic, Tyler Herro, Ja Morant, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Duncan Robinson, Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke
Charlotte Hornets @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 228
Vegas Spread: Den -6.5
Starting with the Hornets, Devonte’ Graham got his minutes into the 20’s last time out and was able to get over 20 fantasy points as well. His minutes will continue to climb so he’s an interesting cheaper option. LaMelo Ball has been pretty volatile as of late but makes sense as a GPP option, I don’t know that I can trust him in cash in this spot. Terry Rozier is priced in a spot where we can start going back to him, he had a nice game last time out and is in play for tournaments at the very least. Gordon Hayward nearly dropped a 50 burger last time out, they’ll need him in this one if they want to keep it close, so I’m good with him as a secondary option as well. With Cody Zeller expected back I think PJ Washington is overpriced, as he won’t see as much run at the five. Zeller makes sense as a cheap center option, they’ll need his size out there to help hold Jokic down. Lastly, Malik Monk and Miles Bridges will continue to provide a spark off the bench and make for decent tournament options should you land on them. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. The Hornets are one of the worst rebounding teams in the league and tend to drop into a zone every now and then. If they try that out here, Jokic has the skill set to absolutely destroy it. He’s an elite raw option as usual in a great spot. We kind of know the story on Jamal Murray by now, he’s a GPP guy that could get you 60 or could get you 20. Michael Porter Jr. seems to have found his footing a bit as of late, I like him as a tournament option here and we know he has a huge upside as well. Will Barton is fairly priced as a tournament option as well, but I don’t have a strong lean on him in this one.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Devonte’ Graham, PJ Washington, Cody Zeller, Will Barton, Jamal Murray
Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0
Starting with the Clippers, Serge Ibaka comes into this one as questionable, so be sure to keep an eye on his status. He was out last game and we saw Ivica Zubac get the start in his place. Zubac played 35 minutes in that game and scored 32 DraftKings points, if he starts again he’s a great option. Kawhi Leonard looked great last game and now has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. Paul George has been held under 30 fantasy points in two straight games but the minutes were still there on him last game, I’m more than okay going back to him here if the public is going to be off him. Lastly, Reggie Jackson and Lou Williams make for fine GPP options but I don’t see myself going there on a big slate. From the Mavericks, it’s mostly just Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis that I’ll have an interest in. Kristaps doesn’t really jump off the page at me but we know the upside he brings to the table. Doncic scored 68 DraftKings points in this spot last time out and is an elite raw option as usual. Then you can round this game out with guys like Josh Richardson and Tim Hardaway Jr. as GPP options.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac (if starting), Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Reggie Jackson, Lou Williams, Josh Richardson, Tim Hardaway Jr.
NBA Lock of the Day: Caris LeVert (DK – $6.8k; FD – $4.4k)
I normally don’t make this a FanDuel only play since I’m not a huge FanDuel player, but this is a FANDUEL ONLY LOCK OF THE DAY. Caris LeVert has returned for the Pacers and doesn’t have a minutes restriction, he’s played at least 27 minutes in his first two games and looks to be in pretty solid form. I would guess when the Research Station comes out he will have a very solid point per dollar projection. He’s just too cheap considering his role and I would imagine he makes our core in our Cheat Sheets/Coaches Notes when those come out later in the day, but check them out for an update as we get closer to lock! Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!
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