With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Justin Jefferson: Jefferson is top 5 in targets the last 5 weeks, averaging over 10 a game. He gets a great matchup against the Lions who you can convincingly argue are the worst pass defense in the league. He will need a huge game but he can still break the rookie WR yards record and with Dalvin out I think Minnesota will be feeding him more so than normal. He is also only boasting a .69 RACR over this time frame so he is leaving much room for improvement on the table.
Sterling Shepard: Shepard is only 2 targets behind Engram for the team lead over the last 5 weeks and gets a great matchup against the Cowboys this week. Dallas has a bottom 5 pass defense so the matchup is more than desirable for him, like Jefferson he is boasting a low RACR (.64) and a matchup against the lowly Cowboys is a great way to get that up to end the year. His price allows your LU to open up as well.
DK Metcalf: Metcalf’s last matchup against the 49ers saw him get 2 TDs and over 150 yards on 15 targets. Seattle is playing with the hopes of making their way to the #1 seed so I am expecting them to let Russ cook by all means necessary. $7600 is a low price for Metcalf considering how high we know his ceiling is, there are plenty of reasons to want to end up on DK this week.
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Dec 27, 2020; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) takes the field against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field. Pittsburgh won 28-24. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
TY Hilton: Hilton has been the runaway front runner in targets and air yards for the Colts over the last quarter of the season and is finally a fair price again at $6300. A matchup against the Jags who already have the #1 pick locked up while the Colts are trying to get into the playoffs is a good narrative as well. Hilton has seen an aDOT of 13.5 over the last 5 weeks, meaning he has great big-play potential and I am expecting him to cash in on that against the Jags terrible secondary.
Laviska Shenault: Chark will be missing the last game of the season leaving almost 6 targets on the table and that is not including what James Robinson leaves as well. With nothing to lose or gain this week, I like to think they will be trying to showcase Laviska here, and with all the volume on the table, it is hard to see him not stepping up into a bigger role.
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