What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

Deshaun Watson ($8700): After his injury last week it makes zero sense to me as to why Watson is suiting up for this game. Yes, the Titans are terrible on defense and the game script looks like it should be in his favor the whole game but I do not trust that he will play the whole game if it gets out of hand in any sort of way, I would much rather just pay $200 less for an Aaron Rodgers who is trying to secure an MVP. PASS

Aaron Rodgers ($8500): Speaking of Aaron Rodgers, we know the guy, we know he wants the MVP, and he is going to do his damndest to get it this week. He threw for 4 TDs last time these teams met so do not let the Bears defense scare you off of what should be an excellent performance from him. In single entries, Rodgers would without a doubt be my guy, I am hoping people like the Watson matchup enough to steal a good bit of ownership away from Rodgers. SMASH

Lamar Jackson ($9000): Lamar has been hit or miss all season and is once again priced like he is at the top of his game like last year. He is going to need 27 points to get to 3x which is a feat believe it or not that he has only accomplished 4 times this year. While it is for sure in the range of outcomes, there are just QBs at cheaper prices who in my opinion have a way better shot at 3x than he does and for these reasons, I am out. PASS

RBs:

Derrick Henry ($10200): Look, this is the best play of the slate okay. I am not going to try and argue that. As you can see, the next highest owned RBs are the players who everyone will use to get to him, so getting unique at RB this week is going to be AMAZING leverage on the field. I love Derrick Henry this week and anyone with a lick of common sense should feel the same way, this is a SMASH to me, I just want to bring you guys the awareness of, if he somehow does not hit and one of the value backs dud as well, you are going to be climbing up the leaderboards. SMASH

Alexander Mattison ($5000): With Cook out, Mattison should be getting the majority of the carries here and is going up against more than likely the worst run defense in football. At $5000 you really just need a TD a couple of catches and 60 or so yards and you are getting him to 3x. This one is honestly a no brainer for me as we have seen Mattison perform well (not the Falcons week) without Cook before. Let’s just cross our fingers we do not have to tilt any Mike Boone goal-line touches. SMASH

Ty Montgomery ($4500): If FD was PPR, I would be all over this play, but it is not. We have not seen TyMont much this year from the Saints and with Sean Peyton let us not pretend we know what is going to happen, these RBs alone are going to set your total ownership well over 100 which is not a good look for GPPs, so not playing one of them makes sense, and with the uncertainty that Peyton brings and Monty not getting any action all year, I feel like he is the logical one to fade as we know Hill is going to be getting the goal-line carries. PASS

WRs:

Davante Adams ($9300): When someone is over $9000 (non QB) it is very hard for them to project over 2x, but Adams does this week and he projects for almost 3 more points than the next highest receiver and with Rodgers MVP chasing, you’re telling me he isn’t going to feed his favorite target? I am more than happy to lock and load Adams with the value that is being gifted to you on this slate and in terms of studs, he should project a decent amount less of ownership than Henry is going to get so he is a good way to spend that salary to me. SMASH

Justin Jefferson ($8000): While it will take one hell of a game, Jefferson is still in play to break the rookie WR yards record, and there isn’t a much better spot to be able to do that than against the Lions. He is 5th in the league in targets over the last 5 weeks so him getting force-fed the ball is not that foreign of a concept. Mattison and he are a nice cheap mini-stack in a great spot and I have no problem loading them even with the uber amount of ownership you are going to have to eat to do so. SMASH

Calvin Ridley ($8700): While Julio is out, Ridley is priced to where he should be and you are more than likely not playing Matt Ryan and the potential stacking options from this game to go along with him are too expensive for me to want to dive into it. So you are going to more than likely be playing him naked, which I am not a fan of doing with high priced WRs. With it being near impossible for you to be able to play him and the other two WRs that I have mentioned, he is the odd man out for me. PASS

TEs:

Darren Waller ($7800): You want your players to be able to score 3x, lets throw 3x out the window for him, if we only are going for 2x, at this price Waller has only been able to hit that 4 times this year. George Kittle is $1000 less and in a way better game script. There is so much value on this slate that lets you do whatever you want, do not waste it on chalk overpriced Waller. PASS

George Kittle ($6800): Kittle said he wants to play, and Shanahan is going to let him, there is no reason to think that he will be limited here. This is an 8k+ TE when things are going right, $6800 is a steal. He is a great runback option with DK Metcalf as well. He is far and beyond my favorite TE play this week. SMASH

TJ Hockenson ($5800): With Stafford being unable to play through the game last week, and this game being meaningless, I am not banking on him finishing it this week. Hockenson did not even post over 5 FP without him, this is just not a risk I am looking to take. PASS

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

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