With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Darnell Mooney: Allen Robinson is not looking on track to play this week and he would be leaving about 8 targets on the table. Over the last 5 weeks Mooney is behind only Robinson in team targets and air yards. Over that 5 week span he has a RACR of only .6 leaving plenty of room for improvement, especially with the uptick in volume he should see if Robinson misses this week.
Jamison Crowder: Crowder since Darnold’s return is leading the Jets in targets by almost 10 and despite his short aDOT of 8.7, almost leads the team in air yards as well. With his low aDOT, Crowder normally boasts a RACR of over 1.0, but the last 4 weeks he has only posted a .67. The Browns are a bottom 10 pass defense based on DvP, and they should have a lead against the Jets, so the game script is perfectly in Crowder’s favor.
Tee Higgins: The Bengals passing offense is very concentrated with only 4 pass catchers seeing double-digit targets the last 5 weeks. That being said, about 6 targets a game will be missing with Boyd being out, and I see Higgins getting a boost from that. The Texans’ secondary and defense, in general, has been piss poor this year, so I am not afraid that Cincy has a bad QB who will be feeding Higgins. Tee has an aDOT of 10 which is not that deep but is only posting a .56 RACR over the time span. For his volume he should see at his price, he is well worth a look this week to me.
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Diontae Johnson: It does not seem to matter how many drops he has, he continues to be fed. Everyone, rightfully so, are very down on the Steelers offense this week, so you are getting to play him at next to nothing ownership wise. In the whole league over the last 5 weeks, he is 11th in targets, and at only $6700 for that type of volume is a beautiful price. No one is going to be on Steelers stacks this week, so this play is amazing in GPPs.
Sep 20, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Mecole Hardman (17) spikes the football after a two point conversion against the Los Angeles Chargers during the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Hanashiro-USA TODAY Sports
Mecole Hardman: While I am aware that he is in the dog house at times, he only has 1 fewer target than Sammy Watkins in the last 5 weeks, so do not think he is not seeing the field. While the Chiefs are uber chalk this week, Hardman is projecting for less than 5% ownership and is in one hell of a good matchup. Only has a RACR of .4 over that time span as well so the room for improvement is huge. He is only behind Kelce and Hill in air yards so besides them he is the best threat to have a blow-up game on this team.
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