With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Kendrick Bourne: This play is pretty cut and dry, Bourne has seen at least 5 targets in each of his last 5 games and draws a matchup against the lowly Cowboys this week. He and Aiyuk are the only two guys on the team who really see air yards and while Aiyuk is boasting an almost 1.0 RACR, Bourne has only a .65 leaving lots of room for improvement on the table.
Mike Evans: I am going back to the well on this one, Evans is averaging over 6 targets per game the last 5 weeks and has an aDOT of 12.5, meaning his ceiling is sky-high. He gets the Falcons this week who have been playing better against WRs as of late but with the weapons on Tampa being much better than an average opponent I think their lack of skill in the secondary bites them this week. He has a RACR of .55 so he is beyond due for positive regression and with no RoJo this week I think Tampa takes a much more heavy passing approach this week.
Terry McLaurin: We all know how much Haskins likes feeding the ball to Terry when he is starting, which is great as his lack of production with Alex Smith has driven his price down. He is an 8k WR with Haskins starting in my opinion and you get to roster him against one of if not the worst secondary in football. He is a stone-cold lock for 10+ targets this week as long as the game script does not get messed up (it will not) so he is a LOCK for my cash lines on either site.
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Marvin Jones: Over the last 5 weeks Marvin Jones is top 8 in WOPR and is the only WR in the top 8 who has a RACR lower than .5. Believe it or not, he actually leads the league in air yards over that time span, giving him a ceiling that not many WRs are capable of having. He is also only $6100 and has a great matchup against the Titans who you can argue have had the worst defense in the league since the halfway point in the season. There is no reason this man should be projecting for sub 10% ownership, but he is and I plan on eating that up.
Dec 13, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Michael Pittman: With TY getting all the TDs the last couple of weeks most people are unaware that Pittman has received only 3 fewer targets than Hilton over the last 5 weeks. He gets the Texans this week who let a terrible Bears offense do whatever they wanted to them. The nice thing about the Texans is they have Watson who always manages to keep a good game script for opposing WRs with his ability to keep his team in the game. Pittman is only $5500 on FD and is projecting for almost sub 5% ownership in a game where the script should be good, and with how Hilton has played recently I expect the Texans to hone in on him leaving the field wide open for Pittman to tear it up with his YAC ability.
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