With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Nelson Agholor: Out of the Raiders WR core he is the clear cut #1 target. He has 12 more targets than the next highest WR on the team and has more than 200+ air yards on the next man in the last 5 weeks. He is currently the cheapest WR1 on the slate at only $5200 and really can let your LU open up. While the floor is not amazing, his 15.7 aDOT means he can basically pay off his value on one play with targets that deep. The Raiders look to be the team playing from behind this game so the script is very much in his favor, I am looking for him to heavily improve on his .47 RACR this week.
Tyler Lockett: I know it does not seem like it but Lockett is only trailing Metcalf by 2 targets over the last 5 weeks. His aDOT is almost 5 yards lower than DK’s but he is also boasting a RACR worse than him as well, meaning I feel like he is heavily underperforming his volume as he has only scored 10+ FD points once in the last 5 weeks. The Jets have a horrendous passing defense and with the Seahawks performing worse and worse the more they try and run the ball, I think this is the week they go back to letting Russ cook. With Theilen and Jefferson right next to him in price on FD he is going to go way too low owned considering his upside this week.
DJ Chark: In the last 5 weeks Chark is seeing basically identical usage with AJ Brown, while Brown is $8000 on FD, Chark is only $5900. The Titans defense has been almost rock bottom in the league as of late while their offense has been stellar, which is great script for Chark. Chark in my opinion is the best run back option on the slate and he is projecting for sub 6% ownership, showing you there will always be an edge in DFS. Out of WRs in the top 20 in WOPR over the last 5 weeks, Chark has the 5th lowest RACR at .60, look for him to improve on that this week.
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Calvin Ridley: Over the past 5 weeks Ridley is top 10 in WOPR and out of the top 20 he has the 4th lowest RACR with a .58. Julio is out this week and they are playing the Chargers in what should be a game that has plenty of passing plays. Ridley looks to be a lock for 10+ targets this week and is coming in at sub 10% ownership, you cannot ask for much more than that out of a WR.
Oct 25, 2020; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) against the Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Mike Evans: The Vikings are 30th(!) in DvP vs WRs and Evans is still projecting for less than 10% ownership. His RACR over the past five weeks is a measily .58. Tampa Bay is almost implied 30 points this week and if they get there I think the man who has scored a TD in 75% of his games this year will be finding the end zone at least once. Out of the 4 WRs who have double digit TDs this season, Evans is by far the best value of them coming in at only $7300 on FD.
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