With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Oct 25, 2020; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Tennessee Titans wide receiver Corey Davis (84) makes a catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Corey Davis: What if I told you that Corey Davis has 5 fewer targets than AJ Brown over the past 5 weeks but has more receptions and receiving yards? I like to think you would start to see Corey Davis as a very viable play like I do. His aDOT is 14.4 which is just about 4 yards deeper than Brown as well. The difference between the two is the TDs as Brown has seen 4 in the last 5 weeks compared to only 1 from Davis. While Corey is not the YAC monster that AJ is, they are on the same offense receiving essentially the same volume yet Corey Davis is over $2000 cheaper and is coming in at sub 10% ownership in a good matchup against the Browns.
Marvin Jones: Finally the Lions are free from the terrible grip of Matt Patricia. Which makes me like all of the Lions more on a week to week basis it is just a bummer they are playing the Bears this week. Golladay is once again out and Marvin is just outside of the top 15 in targets over the last week with 39. With a RACR of only .59 Marvin is due to put together a good game with this type of volume. He is also only $6000 and is projecting for less than 3% ownership.
Cooper Kupp: Top 8 in targets over the last 5 weeks but despite that he has 0 TDs which is very much due for a change. With Kupp’s short aDOT it is no surprise he has a RACR over 1.0 but that does not mean he is not due. Over half of his receiving yards over the last 5 weeks have come from YAC, so his production on his deeper targets really has not been where it needs to be. His price of $6600 is the lowest I have seen him have in quite sometimes so his value in cash games is very strong.
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DK Metcalf: Somehow, the NFL leader in receiving yards is coming in at sub 3% ownership right now, are you kidding me? $8500 is honestly still too cheap for him as he has scored 17 or more FD points in 7 out of 11 games this year which is absurd. Everything looks all systems go to me for him yet he is being played like Russell Wilson is out. DFS is a game of ownership and I feel like DK can help you win it this week.
Denzel Mims: Is seeing as much of a % of the Jets air yards as Tyreek is seeing for the Cheifs and is seeing more than the likes of DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs. Is seeing more of a target share than players such as Terry McLaurin and Allen Robinson. The point being, the dude is getting work. With a RACR of only .47 he is more than overdue to put those volume numbers on the score sheet. The Raiders like most teams will have a lead on the Jets this week meaning the game script for Denzel is right where you want it to be.
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