Full Court Press Breakdown for NBA DFS 12/23:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Michael aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

Charlotte Hornets @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: NA

Vegas Spread: Cha -2.0

We’ll tip this massive slate off with the Charlotte Hornets who come in as two-point favorites on the road. It sounds like Gordon Hayward is probable here after fracturing his finger in the preseason. He had a 19.9% usage rate last season with the Celtics, but I do expect that to go up on a team with fewer weapons. That said, on a 13 game slate we can afford to be picky and I don’t necessarily love the price on him. Devonte’ Graham is another guy that seems appropriately priced, he does have some nice upside so I don’t hate him as a secondary option. Terry Rozier is a similar play to me as Graham but just cheaper. LaMelo Ball’s game reminds me a heck of a lot of his brother Lonzo, yes it was just preseason but he looks like he’ll be able to hang in this league. It’ll be interesting to see how they play Ball, Rozier, and Graham or how they stagger them, but to start I think Ball is the odd man out in terms of minutes which will keep him as more of a GPP option. From the Cavaliers, there’s a few guys I like here, starting with Andre Drummond. I love his price take on DraftKings and who is really going to slow him down in the Hornets frontcourt, Cody Zeller? Kevin Love is out here, meaning Larry Nance should get the start but his price tag seems higher than it should be considering we just got the news on Love before pricing came out. I don’t hate him as a secondary option. The rest of this team is probably more gpp options than anything else on a big slate.

5-star play: Andre Drummond

4-star play: Larry Nance, Devonte’ Graham, Terry Rozier

Deeper Value: Isaac Okoro

GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, LaMelo Ball, PJ Washington

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers

Vegas Total: 212.5

Vegas Spread: Ind -8.0

Starting with the Knicks, the pricing on Julius Randle seems really low, he has 40 points upside every day of the week. No, it’s not a great matchup, but I like that price quite a bit. RJ Barrett saw a bunch of minutes in the preseason similar to last season, I would expect him to be around 35 minutes here, and doesn’t have a terrible price either, he’s a solid play. Guys like Elfrid Payton and Mitchell Robinson are more of GPP options here in a slow-paced matchup. From the Pacers, Domantas Sabonis should have a nice matchup here, the Knicks aren’t exactly a tough defensive team. Myles Turner is in a similar spot, but we kind of know what we’re getting with him, if he gets hot from three he’ll have a solid night. I wish they would just trade Victor Oladipo and get him a second start while freeing Malcolm Brogdon and TJ Warren a bit, he’s a bit of a usage hog. That said, he did have a 25.5% usage rate in games he played last season. Maybe there’s a chance he got healthier in the offseason and will take that usage and slam the Knicks poor defense. But the price tag is just too much for me. One thing to watch here is that TJ Warren is questionable, if he is out it’s a pretty sizable boost to the rest of this offense as he had a team-high 25.7% usage rate on the season last year.

5-star play: Julius Randle, Domantas Sabonis

4-star play: Malcolm Brogdon

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Elfrid Payton, Mitchell Robinson, Victor Oladipo, TJ Warren

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Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 218.5

Vegas Spread: Mia -4.5

I’m going to be honest, this really isn’t a game that I’m going to get a lot of. The Magic aren’t the fastest team and the Heat play great defense. Something to watch is how the Heat give their guys minutes. They went to finals last season which didn’t end all that long ago, so they may ease their guys back a git here. All that said, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro are secondary GPP options but that’s about it for Miami. It’s a pretty similar story for the Magic, not a whole lot I like here. Nikola Vucevic is a nice point per minute guy but it’s a tough matchup for him. Maybe you can get to Terrence Ross in GPPs but on a 13 game slate, I’m going to be picky and just go elsewhere.

5-star play: None

4-star play: None

Deeper Value: Terrence Ross

GPP Sleeper: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Nikola Vucevic, Terrence Ross

Washington Wizards @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: 228.5

Vegas Spread: Was -7.5

Starting with the Wizards, this offense is going to be a lot different with Russell Westbrook in town. I think Westbrook puts up similar numbers as he did in OKC this year. Maybe not quite as crazy since Bradley Beal will be there as well, but Westbrook is going to take all the usage in this offense and run. He had a 30.1% usage rate last season and that was with the king of usage himself in James Harden. I don’t really love the price tag on him but he has legit 60-70 point upside here if he performs like I think he will. That being said the Bradley Beal price tag isn’t all that appealing to me due to the usage he likely gives up, I would expect his price to come down a bit over the first few weeks. Thomas Bryant scored 47 DraftKings points in his lone matchup with the Sixers last year and makes sense in GPPs here. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid is in a great spot here. Last year I targeted big men against the Wizards and I see no reason not to do the same this year. Ben Simmons feels appropriately priced, and it is a really nice matchup with a pretty bad defensive Wizards team. I think my guy on this team is going to be Tobias Harris, I love the price on him and the matchup is great.

5-star play: Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris

4-star play: Russell Westbrook

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Bradley Beal, Thomas Bryant

Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics

Vegas Total: 226

Vegas Spread: Mil -3.5

We’ll start with the Bucks who finally shipped out Eric Bledsoe and got themselves a new point guard in Jrue Holiday who I think is a perfect fit for this team. Giannis Antetokounmpo feels really cheap here, he averaged 63.5 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Celtics last season. At $10.2k on DraftKings, he’s a really nice price and play here. At the moment Giannis is coming in as the third-highest projected scorer on tonight’s slate according to the Research Station below.

Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday are priced pretty similarly here. Last season Middleton had a 27.9% usage rate last season while Holiday had a 20.9% usage rate with the Pelicans. Both seem more like secondary GPP options here until we can get a firm grasp on their roles. DJ Augustin is out here so we’ll see Donte DiVincenzo and Bryn Forbes run the backup point guard, I would expect Donte to start so Forbes may be the true backup. If that’s the case Forbes becomes a really nice value option at near min price. From the Celtics, Kemba Walker is still recovering from injury so the Celtics will be without him here. We will likely see Jeff Teague start here and the price tag seems really nice, he’s an elite value option. As far as last year’s starters go, below is how they fared with Kemba and Gordon Hayward off the court last season, Tatum, Brown, and Smart all make sense here in what is a pretty high total.

• Jayson Tatum – 34.2% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
• Jaylen Brown – 22.2% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
• Marcus Smart – 18.1% usage rate; 0.96 fpm

5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo

4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Bryn Forbes

Deeper Value: Bryn Forbes

GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez, Donte DiVincenzo, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis

New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 230

Vegas Spread: Tor -4.5

Starting with the Pelicans, they’re going to run and they’re going to play fast. They had a lot of departures in the offseason, but it won’t stop them from running. Brandon Ingram’s price seems a bit too high for me here and I would expect he gets some Pascal Siakam defense so I don’t really love him. Zion Williamson’s price tag seems a bit high as well, just not a guy I see myself getting to here in a not so great matchup. I don’t mind Lonzo Ball and maybe even Eric Bledsoe in GPPs, but considering the total, it feels odd that more isn’t standing out for this team. From the Raptors, I really like Pascal Siakam here, I think he has a massive bounce-back season on the horizon. Not only that, but he averaged 65.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pels last season, love me some Siakam here. Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are priced similarly as last season and they’re very similar DFS producers, however, they both feel about $500 too cheap here on DraftKings. I like them both in all formats and should be lower owned.

5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet

4-star play: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, Eric Bledsoe, Lonzo Ball

Atlanta Hawks @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 231

Vegas Spread: Atl -1.0

The Hawks should be a fun team this year and I love the pace of this game, this is a nice game for DFS production. The matchup for Trae Young is a good one, I think he losses some usage this year with Clint Capela coming back and the additions of guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic, Danilo Gallinari, and Rajon Rondo. That said, the price is more than fair on him and in a 231 total, I like him a good deal here. John Collins was playing a ton of minutes last season and I would expect the same maybe a few more minutes this season, but ultimately he’s one of the guys they’re building around. I like Collins here as an option against a bad defensive team. That and Clint Capela is doubtful so he should see some minutes at the five which should boost his rebound equity. Bogdan Bogdanovic looked great in the preseason and makes a nice secondary play while Danilo Gallinari is more of a secondary GPP option for me. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine led the team with a 31.5% usage rate and played a ton of minutes. This Hawks team may be fun on offense, but I don’t expect a major increase in defense. LaVine is a nice play here. Colby White looked great in the latter half of last season and again this preseason, I don’t love the price tag but think he makes some sense as a GPP option. I love the price tag on Lauri Markkanen, he feels far too cheap. Otto Porter is another guy that seems too cheap but feels like more of a GPP option as well. Lastly, Wendell Carter just didn’t perform all that well last season, but his price has come down quite a bit, I don’t hate him as a GPP value.

5-star play: Trae Young, Zach LaVine

4-star play: John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Colby White, Lauri Markkanen

Deeper Value: Wendell Carter, Lauri Markkanen

GPP Sleeper: Danilo Gallinari, Otto Porter

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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets

Vegas Total: 226

Vegas Spread: Hou -7.0

We’ll start with Mr. Drama Queen himself in James Harden here who gets a revenge game against the Thunder. With Russell Westbrook gone Harden may see even more usage. However, they did go out and acquire John Wall and DeMarcus Cousins who both looked great in the preseason. Considering the matchup, the Rockets seem a touch underpriced as a whole. From the Thunder, with Chris Paul and Dennis Schroder out of town Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should finally get a chance to run the show. With Gallinari, Paul, and Schroder off the court last season, Gilgeous-Alexander had a 32.4% usage rate. In a nice matchup with the Rockets, I love Gilgeous-Alexander here. The price is a little higher than I’d like but it will help keep ownership down on him. Al Horford will run the frontcourt with Adams out of town, he looked bad last season but they may have just been a product of his role on the Sixers. I don’t really want to jump on him right away here at this price tag but he’s a guy to monitor.

5-star play: James Harden, John Wall, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

4-star play: DeMarcus Cousins, Al Horford

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Christian Wood, Eric Gordon

San Antonio Spurs @ Memphis Grizzlies

Vegas Total: 231.5

Vegas Spread: Mem -2.0

Starting with the Spurs, this is a great up-pace matchup for them as the Grizzlies are one of the faster teams in the league. It sounds like Derrick White will be out here which makes me like Dejounte Murray a lot at a really cheap price tag. With Derrick White and Bryn Forbes off the court last season, Murray averaged one fantasy point per minute and a 22% usage rate. In this matchup, I like him a good amount. DeMar DeRozan looked really good last season and makes sense here as well in a fast-paced matchup. LaMarcus Aldridge averaged 45.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Grizzlies last season, he’s a nice option as well. From Memphis, man does Ja Morant look good already this season. He was playing a ton of minutes per game in the bubble so I think we can safely project him for a massive role here. I targeted point guards against the Spurs all last season and it’s a spot I’ll go back to here, I like me some Morant. Jonas Valanciunas is a guy I like getting to in GPPs, he’s a huge point per minute guy when he’s out there, I like him here as well. I like the price tag on Dillon Brooks as well while Brandon Clarke is more of a GPP option.

5-star play: Dejounte Murray, Ja Morant

4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Jonas Valanciunas, Dillon Brooks

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Jonas Valanciunas

Detroit Pistons @ Minnesota Timberwolves

Vegas Total: 225.5

Vegas Spread: Min -4.5

Starting with the Pistons, they are pretty easily the worst team in the league in my opinion. That said, the T-Wolves don’t play great defense so even though neither side is particularly good, we can still get some DFS production out of this one. Blake Griffin looked bad last year and burned me every time out, he’s going to need to prove he can do it to me before I really have any sort of interest in him. Derrick Rose is a guy I like here, he had a 31% usage rate and with even more departures from the team, I expect him to take this offense by the horns and makes for a nice play in his price range. From Minnesota, they should be able to do whatever they want here against this poor Pistons team. Karl-Anthony Towns is an elite play and a guy I usually like to target when he’s under $10k which he is here on DraftKings. D’Angelo Russell should continue to own the usage in this backcourt even with Ricky Rubio in the mix now. Malik Beasley is also a guy in this backcourt that will soak up some production, so it’s a bit crowded. I think Russell is safe but I want to take a wait and see approach on Rubio and Beasley.

5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, D’Angelo Russell

4-star play: Derrick Rose

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Blake Griffin

I also want to give out a shoutout to all the winners we had last season. DFSArmy took home a $200k, $25k, $20k, $10k, a SuperDraft $4k winner, and Kevin even took down the mini-max all within a few week time-span. Keep following your process and taking advantage of the tools that are here to make you successful, hell of a season fellas!

Research Station

Domination Station

Sacramento Kings @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 225.5

Vegas Spread: Den -8.5

Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox should see around a 30% usage rate this season with Bogdanovic now gone. However, this is a tough matchup against one of the better defensive teams in the league. Buddy Hield is always in play in GPPs for me due to his upside but the price tag just is too high for me here. Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, and Marvin Bagley feel really similar here, they’re more of secondary GPP options here than anything. I’m curious to see what kind of minutes Tyrese Haliburton gets to start the season. He played some big minutes in the preseason and I think he makes some sense as a GPP value option if you want to get crazy. From the Nuggets, we saw Jamaal Murray light the bubble on fire for a few weeks a few months ago. I do think he’s taken a step up and in a great matchup against the Kings, he’s a solid option. Nikola Jokic struggled in this matchup last year at 31.6 DraftKings points per game in three games. That said, this is a really nice matchup for him, he’s an elite play. Michael Porter is a guy similar to Buddy Hield when it comes to DFS, he can get hot real quick and has legit 50 point fantasy upside which puts him in play for GPPS.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamaal Murray

4-star play: De’Aaron Fox

Deeper Value: Tyrese Haliburton

GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield, Michael Porter Jr, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica, Marvin Bagley

Utah Jazz @ Portland Trailblazers

Vegas Total: 229

Vegas Spread: Por -1.5

Starting with the Jazz, similar to Jamaal Murray, Donovan Mitchell had a few weeks in the bubble where he went bonkers. This should be a fun one against Dame and I think the price is pretty appropriate and makes sense for GPPs. Rudy Gobert just got a massive contract and will start his season in what should be a pretty decent matchup. Nurkic is a good defender but Gobert can get it done on both ends of the court. I like the price tag a good amount on Gobert and think he’s cash viable. Mike Conley is priced about right here, in a fast-paced game he makes sense in a game stack if you choose to go that way. Finally, Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Ingles are fine GPP plays but not someone that I’m prioritizing by any means. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard is similar to Mitchell in that he had a wild few weeks where he went nuts in the bubble. The Jazz are very good on defense but Lillard was able to figure them out last season and average 66 DraftKings points per game in three games against them last year. CJ McCollum is never really a guy that I get a ton of when Lillard is active so I probably won’t see myself getting him here either. I’m not sure that Jusuf Nurkic is up to condition yet, but would expect him to be around 30 minutes regardless. The matchup is tough against Gobert but he’s got 50 point upside if he gets the minutes.

5-star play: Damian Lillard, Rudy Gobert

4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley, Joe Ingles, CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

Vegas Total: 237

Vegas Spread: Pho -1.0

Talk about a late-night hammer! This game should be a lot of fun, but we’ll start with the Mavericks. Luka Doncic is the MVP favorite going into the season and at just $10k on DraftKings, he’s an awesome play. With Kristaps Porzingis off the court, last season Doncic had a 38% usage rate. In this matchup, at this price, Doncic may be the top play on the slate. I really don’t have a ton of interest in anyone else on this team, you can make a case for Josh Richardson based on his price but he’s more GPP for me. From the Suns, yet another guy that tore up the bubble in Devin Booker. His price seems a little high especially with the addition of Chris Paul who will take some of his usage away. I don’t love the price tag on Paul either but he’s playable as a secondary option for cash games. The Mavs got Dwight Powell and Willie Cauley-Stein back but they’re still really weak in the frontcourt which makes me like DeAndre Ayton a good amount. Lastly, Mikal Bridges is a fine option but really kind of blah for now.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, DeAndre Ayton

4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Devin Booker, Josh Richardson

NBA Lock of the Day: Andre Drummond (DK – $8.0k; FD – $8.4k)

There are a good amount of guys that seem underpriced today and Drummond is one that really stands out to me. Not only is the price tag great but he gets one of the better matchups he could ask for against the Hornets. Cody Zeller isn’t going to be stopping him, that’s just not going to happen. Not only that but with Kevin Love also out he may be forced into a few more minutes. The Domination Station likes him as well and has him projected to be a 5.97x value option on today’s slate. Really more of a DK play since you can play multiple centers over there but a great FD play as well if you’re willing to commit to that position. Tweet me (@MadnessDFS) your lock predictions and if your player gets over 5x tonight I’ll give you a shoutout on Twitter, let’s have some fun with this!

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