What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

Patrick Mahomes ($9400): Look, I get it, Kansas City is the only team on a 10 game slate with an implied total over 30 points. The issue is, everyone knows that, and if it hits, you are gaining no leverage and are just hoping you built the best Cheifs stack out of hundreds of thousands of people, and in the GPP business that is not what we call a +EV move. In single entries, I get if you want to go there, but they’ll be even higher owned there, and to boot the Mahomes/Hill/Kelce stack is almost 50% of your total salary while only being 33% of your line up. If you are looking to go here, please put Mecole Hardman in your stack. SINGLE ENTRY/CASH SMASH, LARGE FIELD GPP FADE

Jalen Hurts ($8200): Since taking over as the starter, Hurts is averaging almost 15 rushing attempts a game and has thrown the ball over 30 times in each of those games. He gets the Dallas defense this week who is arguably the worst in the league, in my mind, Hurts has been what we wanted Lamar to be this year, I love his price too, I am eating this up. SMASH

Mitchell Trubisky ($7200): Is anyone else besides me sick of having to decide on Bears chalk every week? No? Okay. As much as I would like to say avoid him this week, at only $7200 and against a Jags team that seems to be sitting everyone, plus the fact that it is 100% fine to play him naked, I am going to say go for it. A lot of the good plays this week are very expensive because a 10 gamer leaves us fewer options on the main slate than we are used to and he really helps you get to them. SMASH

RBs:

Austin Ekeler ($7000): Outside of last week, since Ekeler’s return, he has been averaging over 10 targets a game, which are much higher value touches than rushing attempts (he gets those too). He is the runaway RB chalk and for good reason, as his X value at the position is almost .2 higher than the next best RB. In cash this week is his an absolute no brainer, in GPPs he is uber chalk so as you know, being underweight or fading is going to get you great leverage, but the path to him hitting 2x is not a hard one this week, so I plan on eating this chalk. SMASH

David Montgomery ($7800): I am once again asking for your support in not playing David Montgomery. At least when he was cheap I could understand the fact that he was worth consideration, and not that he is not here, but if I told you a month ago Monty would be the 2nd highest priced active RB on the main slate, you would tell The Geek to fire me. The matchup is about as good as it gets and I understand that, but with me already eating Ekeler chalk, I am not looking to double down and play the next chalkiest RB on the slate as well. Hot streaks do not last forever and Monty is on a hell of a one right now, if Robinson ends up missing he should be seeing stacked boxes and he is not good enough to me to overcome that. PASS

LeVeon Bell ($6400): Bell to me is the Fournette of last week, he should see the majority of the RB touches but how many touches will the RBs for KC actually get? He is very reliant on TDs to me as since the “receiving back” has not seen over 3 targets a game since he was brought in the be the receiving back, literally every skill position on the Chiefs is chalk, and if I am picking one that I think is going to bust, it is Bell. PASS

WRs:

Tyreek Hill ($9400): Tyreek is leading the league in targets for the last 5 weeks, averaging over 10 a game, so honestly, he should be closer to 10k than he is. As with Bell being my most likely to bust on the Chiefs, Hill is my most likely to hit, as unless the Falcons blanket him (they cannot unless they want Kelce to burn them) he will not be contained. I think taking just Hill from the Cheifs and leveraging in other positions, you can build a great GPP lineup despite playing who I believe will be the highest owned WR. SMASH

Allen Robinson ($7500): Nagy says he expects ARob to play at this point, so I will roll with that opinion as a fact for now. What is for sure a fact however, is that Robinson has not been able to practice due to a hamstring injury, which is a very tough one for WRs to play with. This is a week where you are eating chalk in one way or another, so you are going to not have to play some of it or just accept the fact that you will not be winning first in any GPPs. Robinson is one of those chalk guys where I am willing to take a stand on and say no to. PASS

DK Metcalf ($7700): Metcalf has one game this week with less than 5 targets and it was against the Rams because Russ is scared to throw the ball at Jalen Ramsey. I am once again expecting Russ to be a loser who is scared off of his dominant player by another one. The Seahawks have not fared well against good defenses as of late and you can make an argument that the Rams have the best one in the league. PASS

TEs:

Travis Kelce ($8800): I cannot recall seeing a TE priced this high ever, not that it is unreasonable as he is on a pace that could see him be the first TE to lead the league in receiving yards in NFL history. The issue is, that I like TE to open up the rest of my LU salary-wise as if you roster one around $5000, you basically hit value off of one TD and if Kelce does not get there, your LU might as well be dead because you used all that salary on a position where many people are saving around $3000 by not playing him. PASS

Logan Thomas ($6000): Has seen no less than 7 targets the last 3 weeks, which is amazing volume for a TE, and TE’s who have that type of volume are normally pushing $7000+, so his value is great to me. Carolina is drawing dead and has one of the worst defenses in the league and Washington is trying to get into the playoffs so I expect the motivation factor to be much heavier in Washington’s favor. SMASH

Mark Andrews ($7000): Has not allowed an opponent to score over 28 points on them in almost the last 10 weeks. Ravens players outside of Lamar seem to be very reliant on TDs as this team is not a volume and or yardage machine. If it came down to it I would much rather just pay the $1800 more for Kelce than roster Andrews. PASS

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

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