What’s up guys it is your boy @LowOwnedWR here to break down the chalkiest plays at each position and see if anybody is worth the ownership you are paying for. Chalk whether you play it or not always needs to be looked at as it is something that always dictates what the cash line will be and build types for your lineups. We will look at factors such as the matchup, volume, pivots, and salary to see if someone is worthy of a smash or pass. Let’s get into it.

 

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QBs:

DeShaun Watson ($8200): Watson averages 4 less fantasy points per game and over a 1.5 yards less per pass attempt without Will Fuller, and those spilts are still when DeAndre Hopkins was there. If he was low owned this week I could see the appeal as he has been playing at a very high level the last few weeks, but if everyone is on a guy who is missing someone who is key to his production, I am not going to be on him. PASS

Russell Wilson ($9000): I find it surprising Russ is this high owned as he has not been the Russ that we saw the first quarter of the season. The Giants should be down early in this game, especially if Colt McCoy gets the start and Seattle has not been as “Let Russ Cook” heavy as they were at the start of the year. If and when they go up early I feel like Seattle will begin to rely on the run game taking Russell out of the equation for a 30 point game. PASS

Mitchell Trubisky ($6900): Now we have all been watching football this year right? If you answered yes, you would know how much of a joke the Bears offense has been this year. Yes, I know they are facing the Lions but Patricia is no longer there and I feel like that is going to give a boost of energy to this Detroit squad. I want nothing to do with Bears chalk in 2020. PASS

RBs:

Austin Ekeler ($7000): Ekeler being the highest owned should really not come as a surprise, as he recieved 16 targets from the rookie Justin Herbert in their first full game together and it is probably safe to say he is a lock for 5+ targets in each game the rest of the season. His price for that volume is too low as he should also be seeing at least 12-15 carries a game on top of those targets which would make him an $8000+ RB to me. The matchup is not the sexiest one but Bill always shuts down what teams do best which is more than likely going to be Keenan Allen and the deep passing game, which really should open up some space for Ekeler. SMASH

David Montgomery ($6200): If I was allowed to, I would write one word for this play and that would just be “no”. Besides last week he has hit 2x at this price just twice this season and has hit 3x once. The Bears are an absolute joke on offense and as meantioned I think the Lions play better without Patrcia. Kareem Hunt, Devonte Booker, and Wayne Gallman are all better plays than him at around the same price and they are all lower owned, just play one of them instead. PASS

Dalvin Cook ($10500): After an ankle injury last week I have to assume Mattison is going to see more work than he has the last few weeks, and at this price you need your guy to get all the touches. Not that I think they are going to do an RBBC this week or anything, but Henry is in a fine matchup and is not nursing an injury and plays better the further into winter we get, and he is lower owned by almost 10%, I would rather just load up on him. PASS

WRs:

Brandin Cooks ($6500): As I have stated many times previously, if you are playing the chalk WR, you better be stacking it so you can get down on total ownership and be more unique. With Watson being a pretty big pass from me this week, I am not looking to play his #1 WR who is projecting to be the chalkiest play on the slate besides Ekeler. PASS

Allen Robinson ($6900): Say it with me, I do not risk my money on a weekly basis so I can play chalk from the Chicago Bears. There is no way to get unique here either as Trubisky and Montgomery are also chalk, I can not say this enough, please do not put your hard earned money on the Bears this week, you would rather lose than have to come up with the best Bears stack line up I assure you. PASS 

DaVante Adams ($9500): On a slate that I truly feel is lacking in top tier offenses, it makes no sense to me that Adams is the only chalk coming from the Packers offense. I am more than willing to eat his chalk and do the onslaught stack with Rodgers-Jones-Adams as the upside of that stack compared to its actual ownership is amazing. It doesn’t hurt that Adams has one of the best floors in the game as he has not scored under 14 fantasy points in the last 6 weeks. SMASH

 

TEs:

Darren Waller ($7000): Chalk TE has not been working out much this year. But no one on the slate is getting the volume at this postion that Waller is. I love the Raiders this week after they got blown out last week and now get to face the worst team in the league for the rebound. I am not looking to Waller naked unless it just fits, but with how low owned Las Vegas’s pass game is going to be this week, I do not mind adding his chalk to those stacks. GAME STACK SMASH, NAKED PASS

Jordan Akins ($5200): Not really sure what people are seeing in this chalk as Fells is not out this week and they both get targets and the Colts are pretty strong against TEs. You’re just praying for a TD here. PASS

Mike Gesicki ($5900): This one really just depends on the Tua news to me. If he is out, I am lock and loading him, if he is in, I will switch all of my pass catcher exposure to Gaskin. Monitor this news closely as if Fitzpatrick starts Gesicki is my favorite TE play. MONITOR INJURY NEWS 

 

 

Defenses are not shown on here as the field is pretty sharp with defense ownership so trying to pick against them is just something I do not deem to be necessary. Remember everyone, if all the good plays just hit every week, we would all have money printing machines, but I do not know about you guys but I do not have a money machine and I see chalk bust on a slate to slate basis like clockwork. Do not feel like you have to play anybody because you don’t, football is a volatile game and projections are not far enough along yet to really nail that down. It is your boy @LowOwnedWR signing off, if you have any questions feel free to @ me on Twitter.

 

 

 

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