Welcome fellow Degenerates! My name is Steve, a.k.a. Mutt18 (mutt_18 on Twitter) and I’m breaking ground on a new article this week that is a growing trend over here at DFS Army and SportsBet Army which is Player Props. For those of you not familiar with a Player Prop, basically, a sports betting website/bookie will give odds on how likely a player is going to achieve, in this case we’ll say, receiving yards, so they can put the odds at -112 that player X will get over or under 57.5 receiving yards, so if you bet the over, you think that player will score 58+ receiving yards and if you bet the under, you’re betting that they will have less. It can actually be very profitable as well as we can get on hot streaks like we did last week and win tons of $$$.
One thing I wanted to touch on here, if our NFL Prop Finder which gives you the odds of props for multiple big betting websites so you can find which sites are giving you the best odds and best of it….its FREE!
Alright, enough with the intros, for this week, this article will be FREE! And I will give you 2 of my favorite picks and 1 fun pick as well that can really lead to big payoffs if they hit as they are longshot odds. All of these are current as of me writing this article on DraftKings Sportsbook. Let’s dig in:
Russell Wilson OV 2.5 Passing TD’s (+110) to Win 1 Unit
Jan 12, 2020; Green Bay, WI, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs away from Green Bay Packers outside linebacker Preston Smith (91) in the third quarter of a NFC Divisional Round playoff football game at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
We knew Russ was due for some regression, as he only threw for 2 TD passes against the Bills and no scores against the Rams last week. This guy at least 3 passing TD’s in 6 of their first 7 games and has been on a drought the past two, so we should see some positive TD regression coming his way. I am also not banking on Carlos Hyde with one barely functional hamstring to be vulturing TD’s here. Against this Arizona team a few weeks ago, he had 50 pass attempts for 388 yards and 3 TD’s. The Cardinals are ranked 24th in FPPG against opposing QB’s on the year and the Seahawks also get the edge of playing at home this week as well. The fact that we’re also getting plus money here makes me love this prop even more with Russ coming off of 2 down games. Weather also shouldn’t be a concern here as there may be a little rain, but there will not be enough wind to effect the passing game from all the weather reports I’ve seen.
Chase Edmonds OV 23.5 Rushing Yards (-130) to Win 1 Unit
Oct 11, 2020; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds (29) rushes for a touchdown during the first half against the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Our Research Station has Edmonds projected at 29.1 rushing yards, and there is less juice on this prop than there is on his receiving yard prop which makes me give this one the nod. Edmonds has been getting more and more involved offensively, especially with Kenyan Drake still a bit hobbled here as he just came off the injury report today but has that nagging ankle issue. Over the past 3 games, Edmonds has rushed for 58, 56 and 70 yards as he’s been the more effective back. That 58 yard game was also against this same Seattle defense a few weeks ago so we know he can still do damage even without being their primary back. Drake also still seems to be dealing with the injury he had in training camp, as he just doesn’t look as explosive and shifty as he did last year. This should be a high scoring game, as there may be a little rain but not much wind which means these offenses should be firing on all cylinders here as the total in this game continues to creep upwards.
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DeGen Special
This last section of the article will be what I like to call my DeGen specials, which are basically bets that have high odds that aren’t likely to happen, but if they do, the payoffs are massive. Here’s one that I like:
Chase Edmonds to Score 2 TD’s (+1800) 0.1 Units
Oct 25, 2020; Glendale, Arizona, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back Chase Edmonds (29) runs against the Seattle Seahawks in the fourth quarter at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Billy Hardiman-USA TODAY Sports
This should be a high scoring game, as we already have a total of 57.5 and that number has steadily continued to climb. These two teams faced off a few weeks ago for a ton of offense, as both these defenses have been really really bad, particularly this Seattle defense. Chase Edmonds has continued to trend upward as Drake trends downward and while Kyler Murray is a threat to vulture TD’s near the goal line, Edmonds can also score through the air, as Drake gets no passing game work in this Cardinals offense. We get a massive payout here as well which makes me love this prop and I may even put 0.2 units on it myself since I’m feeling frisky as our NBA Draft Props paid off nicely last night.
Those are some of my favorite plays for tonight’s game, for all my picks you have to join us at Sportsbet Army, and with a great catch phrase… PITTER PATTER, LETS GET AT ER’!
That’s all I have for you in the FREE article, for access to all of my picks for this game, join me in the coaching channels over at Sports Bet Army.
