With so much fluff out there these days, let’s dive a little deeper when it comes to finding those wide receivers due some positive regression! I will assume you know the best way to target WRs is usage, but there is a lot more to it than just targets, yards, and touchdowns. I want to introduce and discuss a few new stats to use to target your WR plays going into the this NFL week: % Of Teams Air Yards, RACR and aDOT.
- Let us start with the Air Yards. Air Yards are the distance the ball travels through the air on path to the WRs target. For example, if Mike Evans gets a 40-yard bomb thrown to him that he does not catch, he gets 40 Air Yards but zero actual yards.
- Now, if Mike Evans only target was that 40-yard bomb, he would have a RACR of zero (RACR is Air Yards divided by Total Yards, so if he had 100 Air Yards and 90 real yards his RACR would be .90). RACR to me is good for identifying due players, if you see someone with over 300 Air Yards in 3 weeks but only a .37 RACR, that should show you he is due and not producing up to his volume.
- Finally, aDOT which stands for Average Depth Of Target. It is exactly what it sounds like, if someone were to see 3 targets that are 15, 10, and 5 yards down the field, he would have an aDOT of 10. Players with higher aDOTs have better big-play potential than those with lower ones and deep balls gather the most fantasy points.
Now that we have all that out of the way, it is time to identify some Positive Regression Candidates.
Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
DeSean Jackson: DJax was pretty hyped up going into the week but Philadelphia looked lost. Week 1 he managed to get 40%(!!) of the teams total air yards and 16% of the targets with only a .19 RACR. .19 is about as low as it gets for someone with actual volume so Jackson has nowhere to go but up. He is a pure GPP play as his targets are lower than I prefer but 40% of air yards are stud WR numbers. Lane Johnson should be back this week along with Miles Sanders so I expect the Eagles to have an easier time getting the flow going. They play the Rams this week and I am not expecting Jalen Ramsey to be locked to him so his open space should be there enough for at least one explosive play.
Preston Williams: This man was an air yard beast last year and it looks as if that trend is going to continue. Preston managed to get over 40% of the teams air yards and over 20% of their targets with a 14.0 aDOT. Let us make it clear that those are stud WR numbers. With a RACR of .36 he can be doing a lot more with that volume and could be seeing more of it with DeVante Parker potentially missing this week. The Bills are not a superb matchup but Miami should be playing from behind which is great for Williams upside.
Mike Williams: Without a doubt my favorite positive regression candidate of the week. The Chargers struggled to get anything going against the Bengals but I am willing to chuck that up to a QB in a new system with no pre-season, meaning I expect them to click more as the season goes on. Mike saw over 45% of the teams air yards and over 30% of the targets, which puts him with the likes of WRs such as Amari Cooper and Devante Adams volume-wise and he is half the price of them. With an aDOT of almost 16.0, his targets are all highly valuable and he only managed to capitalize on just over 40% of them. Los Angeles should be playing behind most of the game as the Chiefs are a whole caliber or two better than them, meaning Mike Williams should have plenty of volume to try and capitalize on this week.
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Tyreek Hill: Hill’s volume numbers were not great Week 1, seeing only 30% of the teams air yards and just 18% of the targets. Now you may be asking well how is that a buy low if his volume is not that high. This is a one week sample size, we know based on past seasons that Tyreek will normally see a good bit more of KC’s passing volume than that. People seem to be concerned with the Chiefs this week as their ownership is coming in low. The Chiefs could be facing the 85 Bears D and I would still love them, do not the Chargers solid D core scare you off of him, the low ownership makes him an even better play.
Allen Robinson: I think Anthony Miller is a fine compliment to Robinson, which you can see by Miller having a very solid week last week, but let us not get it mistaken, this is Allen Robinson’s offense. Only Micheal Thomas posted a better volume rating last season than Robinson. Against the Lions he saw over 40% of the teams air yards and over 25% of their targets with an aDOT of 16.9(!), and finished with a RACR below .4. New York is by no means a scary matchup and with Trubisky at QB they should never have a huge lead so I do not see game script being a problem. ARob is going to come in at sub 5% this week making him a great leverage play…
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