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NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
New York Rangers VS Carolina Hurricanes
O/U 5.5, CAR -165
New York Rangers: I will eat my words on this series, Carolina showed up looking hungry and New York showed up to dish out hits and not take shots, which is not good for fantasy. Zibanejad and Panarin are the only two I am looking for a piece of here.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Mika Zibanejad, Artemi Panarin
Cash viable – Mike Zibanejad
GPP Sleeper – none
Carolina Hurricanes: I thought Vincent Trocheck had a good game and lack of points from him will hopefully keep him low owned. As I said I will eat my words, I think Carolina is going to be able to take care of New York night in and night out, the only possible set back is their shaky goalie situation.
5 star plays – Sebastian Aho
4 star plays – Teuvo Teravaien, Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov
Cash viable –Teuvo Teravaien, Vincent Trocheck, Andrei Svechnikov, Sebastian Aho
GPP Sleeper – Jacob Slavin
Winnipeg Jets VS Calgary Flames
O/U 5.5, CGY -145
Winnipeg Jets: This is one I am not quite willing to bite the bullet on being wrong yet. I do worry that Scheifele is going to be out and that really hurts their upside. Ehlers remains too cheap on DK at $4400 and Kyle Connor and Blake Wheeler are solid players with out without him. Calgary is very shaky in the net and I think the Jets could go off at anytime.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Nikolaj Ehlers, Kyle Connor, Blake Wheeler
Cash viable – Nikolaj Ehlers
GPP Sleeper – Andrew Copp
Calgary Flames: Sean Monahan at $4900 is too cheap and is worth consideration in cash games. Calgary’s expected goal numbers are not great and Connor Hellebuyck is a good goalie so if he can get it on track I do not think Winnipeg should have a problem shutting them down.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Sean Monahan
Cash viable – Sean Monahan
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars VS Vegas Golden Knights
O/U 5.5, VGK -125
Dallas Stars: With Pacioretty likely missing the game I think the Stars do have the edge here if they do not pump out garbage lines. Radulov being under 5k on DK is always worth a look. Lehner and Flower are going to be a tough goaltending tandem to beat but if Vegas cannot keep the pressure they’ll eventually break.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Tyler Seguin, Alexander Radulov
Cash viable – Alexander Radulov
GPP Sleeper – Alexander Radulov
Vegas Golden Knights: The Knights are a good team and deserve respect even without Max. Statsny gets to have Marchessault and Reilly Smith and I really like that lines value and upside. Chandler Stepheson is getting the VGK1 minutes so he is worth a look as a punt.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Paul Statsny, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith
Cash viable – Chandler Stephenson, Reilly Smith
GPP Sleeper – Reilly Smith
Montreal Canadiens VS Pittsburgh Penguins
O/U 5.5, PIT -135
Montreal Canadiens: I am keeping my faith in the Pens here. Despite injuries all year they performed as one of the best teams in the league until a rough stretch ended by a pandemic. Montreal is a team I am only looking to touch in large field GPPs, even if it is Matt Murray that is starting again.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Brendan Gallagher
Pittsburgh Penguins: The top two lines here are the most dangerous and who I am looking towards them heavily in all formats. Guentzel didn’t go off so I am hoping he loses some ownership. Pittsburgh 1 will most likely be higher owned as I think people will still like the Sheary value.
5 star plays – Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin
4 star plays – Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang, Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust
Cash viable – Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang, Conor Sheary, Jake Guentzel
GPP Sleeper – Justin Schultz
Washington Capitals VS Tampa Bay Lightning
Feb 29, 2020; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Lightning right wing Nikita Kucherov (86) skates with the puck against the Calgary Flames during the second period at Amalie Arena. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
O/U 6.5, TB -125
Washington Capitals: Tampa is better than Washington, that needs to be stated. This team is fresh and hungry and the Capitals are no spring chickens. Alex Ovechkin is always viable and that continues here, even despite the fact it is the highest total on the slate he could end up going low owned in favor of other studs. Ilya Kovalchuk is slotting up on PP1 and this is the best PP in the league.
5 star plays – Alexander Ovechkin
4 star plays – Ilya Kovalchuk
Cash viable – Alexander Ovechkin, Ilya Kovalchuk
GPP Sleeper – TJ Oshie
Tampa Bay Lightning: If Hedman misses the game Sergachev is almost a lock with the boost that gives him. With Stamkos out they have mixed up the winger on the first line so we are going to need the news to lock that one down. Nikita Kucherov is one of my favorite plays on the slate, especially with Holtby getting the start.
5 star plays – Nikita Kucherov
4 star plays – Mikael Sergachev
Cash viable – Nikita Kucherov, Ryan McDonagh
GPP Sleeper – Yanni Gourde
Chicago Blackhawks VS Edmonton Oilers
O/U 6.5, EDM -135
Chicago Blackhawks: Edmonton is awful on defense and that showed itself fast and early in game 1. Kubalik took the biggest advantage of that game 2 and I think he is capable of doing that again. I am hoping to see Patrick Kane step up here and I am a fan of Alex Nylander being on his line as it helps make that stack very affordable.
5 star plays – Patrick Kane
4 star plays – Dominik Kubalik, Dylan Strome, Alex Nylander
Cash viable – Patrick Kane, Dominik Kubalik, Alex Nylander
GPP Sleeper – Alex Nylander
Edmonton Oilers: McDavid and co should see lower ownership than last slate with more studs to pick from here. That being said keep your exposure here to the studs.
5 star plays – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
4 star plays – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Cash viable – Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Andrei Vasilevskiy: Should be able to see a good amounts of shots from Washington which is great for his upside and I feel like TB gets away with the W here.
Connor Hellebuyck: Priced down on DK and I think he will go low owned with peoples recency bias kicking in, if Scheifele is out I like it for his upside but not for his floor.
