Trust The Process DFS NBA – July 31st, 2020 FanDuel and DraftKings

The DFS NBA “Trust The Process” article is an in-depth look at the DFS Army NBA Research Station to help find plays on today’s 6-game slate! The goal is to help make a solidified process everyone can follow to crush cash games and tournaments alike. You can find me on Twitter @AUFan30 or in Slack throughout most of the day if you have any questions!

Point Guards

The first thing I do when looking for players to build around is sort by And1 rating. The And1 rating is an all-encompassing metric unique to the DFS Army that factors in several different columns, including aDVP, Ceiling, Floor, USG%, etc. I like to keep track of the Top 5 players from each position. Take note of these guys and see if they stay high on the list of the other metrics we will look at.

Next, we will sort by Floor for cash games. When we do this, we see that Rubio drops to the bottom of the Top 5. Morant and Rubio both are significantly lower than the others in this tier, so in cash games, I may be looking to spend up here depending on what value opens up.

For GPP’s we will sort by Ceiling. The Ceiling is the number we can expect these guys to hit 15 – 20% of the time if everything goes right for them. Doing this, we see that Damian and RWB stay high on the list. We also notice the Top 5 doesn’t change at all really. This tells me these five guys are the ones to target in tournaments for point guards tonight.

We will then sort by FP/Min. The FP/Min column is very useful in telling us who produces when they are on the court. Doing this shows us our Top 5 really doesn’t change much aside from Napier replacing Morant. Damian and RWB stay extremely high on the list. Fox also has been third in every category and is significant savings from the other two.

The next step is to sort by USG%. If we’re looking for what studs to build around, we want a guy who is heavily involved in his offense. Note that Damian, Westbrook, and Fox have been high on every list we’ve looked at so far.

When we have what guys we want to target selected, we then want to look at two columns in particular: Who’s Hot? and Clock Watch. These two columns are very important for GPP plays in particular. Every player goes through a cold stretch as well as hot streaks. One thing we really need to note here is the fact that we’ve had several months off with the COVID outbreak, so these stats carry a lot less weight right now. Regardless, we’ll still look at who was trending upwards before COVID started. When we sort by Descending on 3g vs 10g, we see Napier and White really jump here. Napier had been providing fantasy owners 5.9X over his last 3 games while averaging 36.4 FP’s and tops the chart at a +9.18 3g vs 10g rating. With no Bertans or Beal for the restart, I expect to see Rui and Napier try and carry the load here. We also see White here providing 7.0X over the last 3 for fantasy owners. However, that SAS situation is impossible to predict, and I’d keep White hype to GPP usage only, and very slightly at that. Also, note that we’ve seen Rubio on nearly every list so far and he pops up here meaning he was hot before the

We also like to sort by Clock Watch to see what players had been getting more run lately. Once again, we see Napier really pop here. My only worry with Napier is that Ism Smith will be there too. Otherwise, no one will be taking shots from Napier and he turns into a usage monster with no Bertans and Beal on the court. We also see Chiozza pop up here. With all the injuries Brooklyn has sustained, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he gets some good playing time here. It’s not a play I’m excited about by any means, but he should be fairly low owned and should draw the start here with no Dinwiddie, Durant, or Kyrie.

Finally, for guards, in particular, we look for guys in Pace Up matchups. This leads to more transition opportunities as well as steal opportunities. For cash games, we don’t necessarily worry too much about the Pace, but it is a very good metric for GPP guards. For guards, we sort by Descending under Pace (+/-).

Shooting Guards and Small Forwards

SG’s and SF’s follow the exact same process as the PG’s do.

Power Forwards

For Power Forwards, we will follow the exact same process for these guys, however, we will change one thing. For PF’s, we want a slow-paced matchup. This is due to PF’s getting more steal and block opportunities, as well as rebound opportunities from set offenses. To find these guys, we will go to Pace of Play and sort Pace (+/-) by Ascending order. Again, take note of any PF’s noticed from the other metrics we’ve already looked at.

Centers

Centers follow the exact same process as PF’s.

Vegas

In NBA DFS, we really want to target games that possess a high scoring total. The more possessions a team has gives us more opportunities for our players to score points. Therefore, we will start using the Vegas section of the RS for our research! We will sort by Total +/- Descending to see what teams are projected to score more than their season average tonight.

When we do this, we see MIL, DAL, HOU, and PHX really pop up here. MIL is projected to score 112.0 points today, up from a season average of 101.9. The Total O/U of that game is only 219, which tells us that the MIL/BOS game may not be a great one to target. DAL is implied to score 115.5 today, up from a season average of 110.6. We also see their opponent, HOU, projected to score 114.5, up from a season average of 110.2. This game is projected to score 230 points and would be a great game to load up on in tournaments, according to Vegas. Finally, PHX is projected to score 115.0 tonight, up from a season average of 111.8.

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Tier List

You will want to make a Tier List of the players you’ve found based on your research. Treat this list as an “in case they’re scratched” list. I would always recommend making the highest priced guy the first on your list, therefore if he is scratched then you have nothing to worry about salary-wise with your edits in case he is scratched just before lock.

Minutes

For cash games, I do make a rule on the RS to include only players who will play over 24 minutes. This is something that needs to be monitored, as the closer we get to lock the RS may not be updated and may require a manual adjustment to a player’s minutes. To add this setting, simply select the down arrow under EDIT Mins under the TODAYS – Projections tab, hover over Number Filters, select Custom Filter.

We will then select “Is greater than or equal to” from the drop-down box and 24 in the input box.

Domination Station Fpts/$ and Ownership %

Once we have our list of guys to target, we want to check out who is popping on the DS. The first section we want to pull up is the Fpts/$. Players hitting value is crucial to taking down any cash contest or tourney and we want to be sure we’re getting the best bang for our buck. We do this by sorting by Fpts/$.

We also want to check out projected ownerships. This is very useful when trying to decide what value to play, or deciding what studs to fade in tournaments. This can also help bring a player to your attention you may not have noticed in the Research Station! The industry is usually very spot on about what players are in good spots, so this ownership tab is very important to watch.

Top Plays for Today!!

These are my personal Top 3 Plays that I believe will most likely be on the optimal lineup at each position based on the RS numbers. These will likely change when news comes out closer to lock, so make sure you’re in the #nba-breaking-news and #nba-coaches-notes channels and turn notifications on! (Salaries sorted by FD/DK)

PG

1. Russell Westbrook $9,800/$9,400
2. De’Aaron Fox $7,500/$7,600
3. Damian Lillard $8,900/$9,300

SG

1. Luka Doncic $10,800/$10,500
2. James Harden $10,600/$11,000
3. Caris LeVert $8,200/$7,800

SF

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,700/$10,500
2. Mikal Bridges $5,300/$5,600
3. Jaylen Brown $5,800/$6,900

PF

1. Jayson Tatum $8,500/$8,700
2. Rui Hachimura $5,600/$7,400 (Much better on FD)
3. Richaun Holmes $3,900/$5,100

C

1. Nikola Vucevic $8,300/$8,500
2. Jarrett Allen $6,700/$5,800
3. Deandre Ayton $7,600/$7,900

 

Thank you for reading and as mentioned before, be sure to follow my Twitter @AUFan30 or catch me in Slack with any questions you may have! Be sure to be watching the breaking news channel as always to make sure you don’t miss any exciting value plays and be sure your players are good to go! If you want access to my full player pool then go on over to https://wp.dfsarmy.com/ref/99/ and use code AU30 for 20% off your monthly VIP or SBA membership!