Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. We are back for another day of the hottest new DFS contest based off live action. I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 12 races at Gulfstream Park. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
- Inside post – posts 1 to 3
- Middle post – posts 4 to 7
- Outside post – posts 8 or higher
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit. Mister announcer guy, call it out…
And They’re Off!
Race 1
We’re starting off the day with a 1 mile trip on the turf. For this type of race at this track, the track bias is a horse that likes to run late coming from the inside of the starting gate. Typical winning beyer is about 74. Looking at this group of horses there is a fairly clear speed line that separates the best from the rest.
- (1) Truly – inside track, drops in class, and tied for best turf speed. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Raspberry Ballet – tied for best turf beyer but switched to a low % jockey ⭐⭐
- (11) Matcha – best beyer is 75, so in the conversation, and gets Gaffalione on its back. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 2
This 5.5 furlong sprint on the dirt should generally benefit horses who like to run early from an inside post position. If there is a solid late runner then I am ok there too. We like closing speed. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 72. We want the speedster here.
- (3) Mystic Comin Home – this horse checks all the boxes for us! ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Cool Lily Lou – the expectation is that this horse will be up early in the pace. This will be CLL’s third race and it’s dropping in class. We can expect some improvement due to learned knowledge. There doesn’t look to be a lot of late speed in this race so it could finish underneath, if you are looking for some value. ⭐⭐
- (10) Markistan – this is a good horse with a good jockey who is dropping in class. I don’t like that this horse is on the outside, though. Could give the 3 a run at the end. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 5 furlongs on the turf. The early runners typically get the biggest boost, but the recent races have seen success to good late runners from the outside. We also want to see roughly a 79 beyer speed.
- (8) Ballie’s Dream – This horse has really good early speed but will fade late. I like it to finish low on the board. ⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Cat’s Astray – this is a great fit for the race. I have plenty of reasons to discount the other horses and this horse seems to excel in all of those areas. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Palace Two Step – Palace looks to be the early pace but should be caught by the 1 and 3 when it slows down the stretch. Im looking at an underneath play because I don’t think there is enough late pace to knock this horse off the board. ⭐⭐
Race 4
Race 4 is a 1 mile trip on the dirt. An 85 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down and the rail is king. The edge will be given to the early runners and those that sit just off the lead. I’m only going to list 2 horses for this small field. My favorite plays are:
- (1) Chase Runner – speed and style to suit the race and loves to sit off the early pace. Best speed ranks at the top of the field. Took 2nd against the horse to its right last time out. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Krachenwagen – no doubt this horse is built for this. Took 1st in a similar race a few weeks ago and looks to be in good enough form, having won its last 2 races. A battle on the inside seems to be in the cards. Should be an exciting race but will history repeat itself.⭐⭐⭐⭐
Down The Back Straightaway
Race 5
This jam-packed race will take us 1 mile on the turf. This race has seen an advantage to the late runners; but, recently, the pressers up front have had success. Average winning beyer is 85. There is an inside bias in this race.
- (5) Gray’s Fable – this horse has shown steady improvement in its young career and has a solid beyer figure. I believe this horse can challenge the lead if it can get a good trip. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Ghostlore – this horse has some speed, the right running style and a hot trainer/jockey combo. Its not a safe play but I think there is potential underneath. ⭐⭐
- (11) Holy Meister – hot trainer/jockey combo leads the horse with the best turf speed in the field. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 6
We are on the dirt going 6 furlongs. Early runners have had success, especially coming from the rail/inside post positions, but I think we can ignore the bias this time. The race typically has a good pace, with the winner gaining an 81 beyer.
- (5) Flawless Moon – the best speed of the bunch. Consistent and throughout the race. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Big Spender – big early speed but will trail off a little late. My pick to finish 2nd ⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Not Now Rand – I suppose this is the best of the rest because it has the best late speed and its technically no slouch in the early going either, but its overall beyer speeds don’t make me feel warm inside. I think it’s a 2 horse race, overall. ⭐
Race 7
We’re going 1 mile on the turf, this time. The pressers or late-running horses have success. This race tends to have an inside post bias. We are looking for a moderate pace with a beyer speed of 85.
- (1) Freedom’s Flight – this horse is solid in finishing on the bottom of the board. If at the top of its game, this horse might be able to challenge at the top but it should have enough to hit the board. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Turn of Events – good speed. I think it’s more of an underneath play ⭐⭐
- (7) Sieze the Hay – a pletcher horse getting some run with a solid jockey on its 2nd time out. It was good the first time out and now we can expect a solid improvement. The late speed should help in this race too. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 8
We are back on the turf and still running 6 furlongs. We like an early runner on the rail/inside to have an advantage. A 91 beyer or better is what we desire. The poor 3 horse is the only one not dropping in class.
- (1) Brass Compass – Tyler Gaffalione gets a speedy horse on the rail who likes to sprint. Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. ⭐⭐⭐
- (2) South Sea – This is another horse with superior speed. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Front Loaded – just look at that closing speed. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Where Paradise Lay – the ability is there despite a couple down races. Certainly in play here. ⭐⭐
… As We Turn for Home!
Race 9
An 88 beyer is desired for 1 mile on the turf. Late runners or pressers on the inside have the slight advantage.
- (8) Rideforthecause – this race features a lot of speed that has had long layoffs. That’s not ideal. This horse is primed. Probably the safest bet but if others can surprise it can be beat. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Always Shopping – a long layoff but its a pletcher horse with a familiar jockey. I’m not thrilled that it hasn’t raced on grass before but the combo of jockey/trainer can overcome that. ⭐⭐⭐
- (12) Bienville Street – I like the speed enough to come in underneath but I don’t like the post in such a large field. I’m not going here if I don’t have to cuz there are bound to be some surprises in this race. ⭐⭐
Race 10
An 88 beyer is desired for the 1 mile trip on the dirt. Early speed or pressers rule the stable. I am looking to the inside as much as possible here.
- (2) Blood Moon – my favorite horse in the bunch today. Great speed off the pace. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Gemo – the only other horse I think can win based on how the horses have run their previous races and what kind of form they are in. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 11
An 88 beyer is desired for the 5 furlongs on the turf. We want an early or late-running horse from the inside or the outside. This race is too short to get bogged down in the pack. If running from the middle the horse needs to want the pace.
- (2) Miss Auramet – there is some excellent speed and this horse is primed for this distance. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Lady Grace – there is enough speed to get ahead of the pack and it does a pretty good job of carrying that speed. It has raced in large fields before and has fared well. ⭐⭐⭐
- (15) Day By Day – wow is there is excellent speed here. With this speed I like its chances from the outside. Oh and a good jockey and competent trainer dont hurt. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 12
We finish the day with 5.5 furlongs on the dirt. We want an early or late-running horse.
- (4) Rye Street – I’m banking more on the jockey/trainer combo to help this horse along in its 3rd start and return to sprinting. In the last 14 days, the jockey and trainer have worked together 10 times and missed the top 3 only 1 time. The horse is also dropping multiple classes. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Upsy Daisy Do – the 6 is losing the blinkers after running ok for quite some time. UDD is also dropping in class and I like it to return to its earlier form. If so, it should be able to beat a crop of underperforming/bad horses . ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) Honest Gal – best of the bunch. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Scratches – TBD
Race 1 – 12
Race 2 – none
Race 3 – 1
Race 4 – none
Race 5 – 3
Race 6 – none
Race 7 – none
Race 8 – none
Race 9 – 14
Race 10 – 3, 5
Race 11 – 12, 13, 14
Race 12 – 9
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. I’ll see ya in the chat. Good Luck!
