Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. We are back for another day of the hottest new DFS contest based off live action. I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 12 races at Gulfstream Park. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
- Inside post – posts 1 to 3
- Middle post – posts 4 to 7
- Outside post – posts 8 or higher
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit. I will have 1 5-star play today. I am locking that horse in and figuring the rest out from there.
Mister announcer guy, call it out…
And They’re Off!
Race 1
We’re starting off the day with a 5 furlongs trip on the dirt. Typical winning beyer is about 75. Looking at this group of horses, there is a fairly clear line that separates the best from the rest. All the horses I list will be dropping in class. This race was moved from the turf to the dirt.
- (10) Katara Pass, (1) Took A Cab, (2) Quick Charge – these are my horses Any of them could show up but my preference is 2 1 10, in that order. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 2
This 1 mile route on the dirt should generally benefit speed horses from an inside post position. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 71. This was moved from the turf to the dirt.
- (3) Vickythebest – this is the next best horse in the group, IMO. It drops in class and the trainer and jockey stats are favorable in terms of finishing in the money. That’s all before we get to that early speed. Might challenge for a win but I think it runs 2nd. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Midnight Gem – what I’m hoping is that this pick is a little under the radar. This horse doesn’t look like it’s dropping in class but a closer look shows he ran a sprint at this class but this horse seems to like the middle distance. When it last ran a mile, it was up a couple classes. I love this horse in this race. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 6 furlongs on the dirt. We also want to see roughly a 76 beyer speed. This race is where we find my 5 star play of the day. As I did last time, I will call out a backup horse in case our horse scratches.
- (10) Lanse Mitan – this horse is dropping multiple classes to race a bunch of 1st timers and has the best speed in the race. It also gets a trip unimpeded from the outside. Because of its superior early speed I am not worried about the post. Im running this horse in my lineup and not thinking twice. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Storm The Bridge – this horse ran at the same class as the 10 last time out and comes in 2nd in speed based at a higher class. The 10 and 9 are head and shoulders above the field, but this horse is just 2nd best. ⭐⭐
Race 4
Race 4 is a 1 mile trip on the turf. A 75 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down and the rail is king. The edge will be given to the pressers sitting just off the pace. I have 4 main plays. I think this race is kinda wide open. I think this is a pivotal race early on in the day. Getting this wrong isn’t the end of the world but getting it right could set you up nicely. All of the horses I list below are dropping in class.
- (5) The Mighty Judge – this horse has solid late pace and that should help it fair well at the critical point seeing as how it’s no slouch in the early going. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Cause For Pardon – the results haven’t been good but this horse is actually dropping multiple classes and it ran very strong numbers at the higher classes at this distance. Dropping should put this horse at the top of the race for me. At only $2, this is a bargain for me. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Graydar’s Resolve – this is a speculative play. The numbers bring the horse into consideration but there are stronger. It has a shot for underneath and maybe upside as Gulfstream has had some wacky finishes. ⭐⭐
- (9) Peacock Kitten – big early speed but should fade a bit late. I don’t like this horse to win but I do like it to finish in the money. Tough to play at 3 bucks, though. ⭐
Down The Back Straightaway
Race 5
This race will take us 7 furlongs on the dirt. Typically, we like the speed horses. The average winning beyer is 85. There is an inside bias in this race. Behind the top 2, this race is kind of open.
- (2) Fugitive – best speed shown so far with room to improve. ⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Ashiham – speed near the top of the field with room to improve. ⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Basquiat – a first timer but judging by the workouts and the pedigree, should have loads of speed. ⭐⭐
Race 6
We are on the turf going 5 furlongs. Early runners have had success, especially coming from the rail/inside post positions. The race typically has a moderate pace, with the winner gaining an 83 beyer.
- (4) Untitled – I think it goes to the front early and tries to hold on. There is some better late speed and that’s what’s keeping me from making this a 4 star play. ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) Miss Behave – I think there is value with this horse. It has a higher turf speed than the 9, who I originally wanted to put here, and it’s acclimated to the turf, unlike the 1, who insiders seem to like early. Why would it be 20/1. Its last few ratings have been better. I think deep down this horse is better than they give it credit and I will proceed as such. I think there is a chance it could shock the field. ⭐⭐
- (11) Awsum Roar – a good balance of early speed and carrying it down the stretch. I think this is a fairly safe choice if not wanting to take a shot in this race. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 7
We’re going 1-1/16 mile on the turf, again. The speed horses have success. We are looking for a beyer speed of 77. This race has an inside bias but I am not too fond of the horses there.
- (2) Mystery Bank – this horse can run the distance and is dropping in class. It should gain steam leading up to post and I think it goes off as the 2nd favorite. ⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Venezuelan Hug – my 2nd favorite horse. It has only raced twice and I don’t see the distance being a problem. I like that VH has only raced twice. There is no way we have seen this horse’s best work. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Shamrocket – this is my favorite horse. I think the switch to Ortiz will help it see a better beyer and it’s clear this horse is the class of the field. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 8
We are on the dirt and running 1-1/16 mile. We like a horse from the middle/outside to have an advantage. An 93 beyer or better is what we desire.
- (1) War Giant – this is probably the 2nd best on paper but I won’t say it doesn’t have a chance to win. It has big early speed and lets see if it can hold on against the charging late runner from the outside. ⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Scars Are Cool – history of showing well but seems to always be lacking just enough. I like its chances to finish in the money but I don’t think we have a winner here. ⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Legit – we get a pletcher horse ridden by a great jockey. It looks to be a late runner and, at this distance, that makes me like it’s chances to finish well. You may see the 1 has a better beyer at this distance but this horse performed better against horses in a similar race rating. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
… And We Turn for Home!
Race 9
A 93 beyer is desired for 1-1/16 mile trip around the dirt. Early runners have had success in the past but I prefer a late runner myself. The rail has an advantage at races of this distance due to the shorter trip.
- (4) Temple – this horse last ran the grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby and earned a beyer that would be worthy of winning this race. The drop in class should greatly benefit its chances to visit the winner’s circle. Win contender for me. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Attachment Rate – last ran the grade 3 gotham stakes and finished 3rd. These types of races are run against the best of competition and this race should not be a problem for it. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 10
An 87 beyer is desired for the 1-1/16 mile trip on the turf. I like the late runners at this distance. I see this race as a bit wide open, as there are a lot of variables in play.
- (5) Maryland Pride – has the speed to run here and I like that it’s late speed. There might be a chance of an upset but I’ll take a high finish. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Crypto Gold – maybe has enough speed to get the job done but it has only done it once (most recent start) and it is moving up in class. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Noble Hope – maybe has enough speed to get the job done but it has only done it once (most recent start) and it is moving up in class. ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) Vegas Kitten – dropping in class should see better prospects for this horse. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 11
7 furlongs on the dirt at a 96 beyer should make for an exciting race. Speed rules here. I don’t like that the best horses are off long layoffs. So i will keep it light here.
- (2) Soldado – good speed. Not the best speed but fast enough and has been racing and is showing good form. Expensive for my taste. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Yorkton – drops in class and coming off its best beyer yet. I could comfortably take a shot with this horse and be ok with the results. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Spinoff – this horse gets an honorable mention due to the trainer and him being excellent at getting a horse ready to run off long layoffs. ⭐⭐
Race 12
We are going 6 furlongs on the dirt. Winning beyer is around 76 and we want the early runners.
- (6) Gangster of Love – good value. The overall speed in this group isn’t great but this 15/1 is the 3rd best speed in the group. ⭐⭐
- (7) W W Archie – drops in class and should rebound after last race. I think it takes 2nd. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Annualized – my pick to win the race. Best speed by far and gets the top jockey while dropping in class. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Scratches
Race 1 – none
Race 2 – 1, 4, 5, 7
Race 3 – 8
Race 4 – 10
Race 5 – none
Race 6 – 2
Race 7 – none
Race 8 – none
Race 9 – 5
Race 10 – none
Race 11 – 3
Race 12 – none
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. I’ll see ya in the chat. Good Luck!
