Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. We are back for another day of the hottest new DFS contest based off live action. I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 10 races at Gulfstream Park. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
- Inside post – posts 1 to 3
- Middle post – posts 4 to 7
- Outside post – posts 8 or higher
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit. I will have 2 5-star plays today. I am locking them in and figuring the rest out.
Mister announcer guy, call it out…
And They’re Off!
Race 1
We’re starting off the day with a 1-1/16 mile trip on the turf. Typical winning beyer is about 70. Looking at this group of horses there is a fairly clear speed line that separates the best from the rest. Any horse that hasn’t hit that beyer before is not a consideration for me, as none of them look to be in line for monumental gains.
- (5) Amber Princess – has just shown ok speed recently but that ok speed is still better than the majority of horses in the field. Add in that it also drops in class and there is a good argument for this horse to finish in the money. It looks like an underneath finish to me. ⭐⭐
- (9) Princesa Crystal – PC is dropping in class and, considering this horse has a 2nd and 3rd place finish at the higher class rating, should fare well in a race lacking a lot of top speed. I’m looking at this horse to place. ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) Laska – best beyer in the field with an 82. The multiple class drop should be a benefit to its chances. My favorite horse in the field and I like it to visit the winner’s circle. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 2
This 6.5 furlong sprint on the dirt should generally benefit horses who like to run early from an inside post position. The speed in this field is nonexistent. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 78. The first of 2 5-star plays is in this race.
- (6) Cabrina – this horse is the only horse with the ability to sniff the typical beyer. Whats even better is as the other horses fade, this horse should blow right by with its superior speed down the stretch! Locking this horse in and moving on⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Water Wizard – this is the next best horse in the group. It’s the next best speed and is in good form. The only way I’m playing this horse is if the 6 horse is a scratch. Only in that case does this one becomes a 4-star play. ⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 5 furlongs on the turf. We also want to see roughly a 71 beyer speed. I don’t see a setup where we can take advantage of a track bias so let’s see which horses are best.
- (1) Dotdotdash – in terms of racing, this horse has much to learn. It might really like the turf as it did a pretty good job of not dropping too much of its speed down the stretch. That is critical in a field of this size. Underneath with upside seems the best fit but I do like that this horse has the rail. That’s helpful for its cause. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Make A Mint – a chance to improve today. Originally this horse was just out for me but my favorites to finish in the money have scratched. ⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Awesome Light – this is a little speculative as this horse is making its debut. It has blazing workouts on the dirt and turf is typically faster but we just dont know how it will take once it gets out there. ⭐⭐⭐
- (10) New York Commander – if punting a $1 this horse has a shot with all the scratches. I like that its dropping in class and that its Dam has 4 winners from 6 starters. I don’t like that it hasn’t raced on grass before. I think underneath is as good as it gets here. ⭐⭐
Race 4
Race 4 is a 1 mile trip on the dirt. A 75 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down and the rail is king. The edge will be given to the early runners and those that sit just off the lead. I’m only going to list 2 horses for this small field. My favorite plays are:
- (1) Samoa – speed and style to suit the race and should. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (4) Time To Two Step – pretty good speed but I like it underneath as it fades down the stretch.⭐⭐
- (6) Paynter Fest – late speed to make up ground down the stretch. I see a late surge to challenge the leader. Ultimately, I think it takes 2nd. ⭐⭐⭐
Down The Back Straightaway
Race 5
This race will take us 1 mile on the turf. Typically, we like the speed horses. The average winning beyer is 85. There is an inside bias in this race. Behind the top 2, this race is kind of open.
- (6) Willing To Speed – my favorite of this race. The speed is there and this horse can separate. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Valdolobo – my 2nd favorite horse. It is a win contender but is moving up in class and has been off for 3 months. The trainer has success with these types of layoffs, so it’s not completely bad, but I do want to dock it half a star. ⭐⭐⭐1/2
- (1) Majestic Luna – I don’t like that this horse is moving up in class but it’s got speed and power that can rival some of the other horses. ⭐
- (3) Tricky Magician – there is ability and a little bit of a track record. I do like it as a third horse and maybe there is a little bit of an upside if the 7 can’t get it together. ⭐⭐
Race 6
We are on the dirt going 1 mile. Early runners have had success, especially coming from the rail/inside post positions. The race typically has a fast pace, with the winner gaining an 90 beyer. This is the 2nd of my 2 5-star plays. We are locking this horse in and moving on. I’ll give you a backup but that’s only if our horse misses out.
- (2) Untitled – big speed and it could still improve while dropping a class. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Winking At Thedude – backup plan only. ⭐⭐
Race 7
We’re going 1 mile on the turf, again. The speed horses have success. We are looking for a moderately fast pace with a beyer speed of 87. This race has an inside bias but I am not too fond of the horses there.
- (9) Grand Journey – this horse has a great track record at this distance with 4 wins and 2 second place finishes at this distance on turf in its last 6 tries. The jockey is not ideal but that might not matter here. I think its upside is 2nd place. ⭐⭐1/2
- (11) Dr. Edgar – this horse has a lot of speed. It just ran a blazing time and it is dropping in class. He might not have fared well in that race but this field should not be as difficult to navigate compared to a grade 3. Win contender for me. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (12) Morocco – this horse looks ready. It gets a hot trainer/jockey combo and the distance doesn’t look to be a problem. I think there is value here if you don’t have cash for the top. The horse is savvy on the turf, as is the jockey. 2nd place upside but perhaps an underneath finish. ⭐⭐⭐
… And We Turn for Home!
Race 8
We are on the dirt and running 7 furlongs. We like a horse from the middle/outside to have an advantage. An 87 beyer or better is what we desire.
- (2) Money Never Sleeps – this is probably the 2nd best on paper but I won’t say it doesn’t have a chance to win. ⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Leo’s Diamond – The fact that this horse ran an 80 beyer in its first trip is exciting to say the least and I love that it was at 6f. It is eligible to improve and an extra furlong shouldn’t hamper it too much. I love taking the shot in a small field. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Bird Map – best dirt speed in the field at 6f. I would love this horse if it wasn’t moving up in class but it has a real shot in this field. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 9
A 92 beyer is desired for 1-⅛ mile trip around the turf. Early runners have had success in the past but I prefer a late runner myself. The rail has an advantage at races of this distance due to the shorter trip.
- (1) Temple – solid speed and a hot trainer/jockey combo that loves to run turf routes. Win contender for me. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Bird’s Eye View – coming off a long layoff here and the trainer is just ok in that category but this horse does have closing speed. In play. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Green Mo’ster – I like what i see from this horse overall but it works out to an underneath play for me. The jockey takes it down a peg for me. ⭐⭐
Race 10
A 75 beyer is desired for the 1 mile trip on the turf. Early speed or pressers rule the stable. I am looking to the inside as much as possible here.
- (1) Bahama Kitten – drops in class and saves all of its speed for the end. Look for a big surge late. Could surprise. ⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Trilby – in the mix for me. Most of my appreciation is due to the jockey but the 1 beat this horse the last time out. The drop in class should be beneficial to hopefully keep it from having to run 7 wide like last time. ⭐⭐1/2
- (7) Retro Street – this horse has plenty of ability but has been unable to realize it thus far. The drop in class and switch to a high percentage jockey has me really interested here. I think it could challenge for the win. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (10) Sweet Story – an underneath play. There are a few horses who could go here but this is my choice but far behind the others listed above. It has closing speed and it drops in class. ⭐
Scratches
Race 1 – 4
Race 2 – none
Race 3 – 8, 13-16
Race 4 – none
Race 5 – 2
Race 6 – 1, 6, 7
Race 7 – 3, 7, 8, 13
Race 8 – 3
Race 9 – 13
Race 10 – 3, 14
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. I’ll see ya in the chat. Good Luck!
