Welcome to rebel DFS! We are all tired of staring at the same 4 walls and hopefully the alcohol rations haven’t run out. Today’s installment is the Fanduel DFS Horse Racing slate. We are back for another day of the hottest new DFS contest based off live action. I can’t wait to see what today brings.
Before we get into the slate lets cover a few basics. The slate consists of 12 races at Gulfstream Park. After yesterday, we are looking to get back in the win column. Thats was the first losing slate and I don’t intend to make it two in a row. We want to pick as many horses that will finish in the top 4 of each race, although ideally win. A few terms to cover that I might use are:
- Beyer Speed – Relative speed of the horse for the race, track, and vs other horses.
- Win – self-explanatory.
- Place – 2nd
- Show – 3rd
- Underneath – finishing in 3rd or 4
- Bounce – couple different ways this could go but the most common is that it ran too fast and had too hard a race the previous time out that it cannot return anything close to a normal ride this time out. I’ll explain other scenarios when I see them or in slack, if you like.
- Inside post – posts 1 to 3
- Middle post – posts 4 to 7
- Outside post – posts 8 or higher
Anything else will be explained on the fly. I will make recommendations for each race but you are free to deviate as you see fit.
And They’re Off!
Race 1
It looks like we aren’t going to ease into this card. We’re starting off the day with a 1-1/16 mile trip on the turf. For this type of race at this track, we are looking for a horse that likes to run late coming from the inside or middle of the starting gate. Typical winning beyer are about 76.
- (1) Aerodynamic (4/1) – a talented horse with a lot of speed. Be careful, as it moves up in class this race. I don’t see a win but it should have enough to get on the board. ⭐⭐
- (4) Jost Sayin (6/1) – The top end of this race is a bit jumbled but there is a lot to like about this horse and I don’t mind taking a little bit of value here. It has some good, consistent late speed and a good trainer. I could see this horse crashing the party for a high finish. My favorite horse Jost saying… ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (5) Strella’s War (8/1) – SW is the morning line 2nd favorite and is very much in play. This is probably my 2nd favorite horse in this race. The traits of this horse look a lot like the favorite but is a dollar cheaper and has a more consistent running style with solid late speed. A drop in class should help a decent finish. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 2
This 4.5 furlong sprint on the dirt should generally benefit horses who like to run early from an inside post position. Typical winning beyer speed figures are about 82. This race features a lot of first timers so scoring in this race could give you a leg up on the field. The keys I look for are good workouts, an above average pedigree, a good trainer, and a solid jockey. These horses below possess these attributes in my book.
- (1) Awesome View (7/2) – last workout was sharp and the dam has 3 winners from 3 starters. ⭐⭐⭐
- (2) Lime (7/5) – the morning line favorite will get a lot of attention. It is a strong contender and perhaps a safe way to go. I will probably fade this horse for that reason and look elsewhere but I get the appeal. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) Pretzel (6/1) – trainer has a decent win rate but isn’t good with 1st time starters. The pedigree is solid. I guess this works out to about as speculative as I can recommend. ⭐⭐
Race 3
We’re running 5 furlongs on the dirt. The early runners get the biggest boost. We also want to see roughly a 80 beyer speed. The favorite (4 – Weekend Dreamer) is in an XOXO bounce spot here losing the last race by a neck while sandwiching a terrible beyer with 2 good beyers I am fading .
- (6) Uno Baby Bird (5/1) – This horse has blazing early speed but will fade late. I like it to finish low on the board. ⭐⭐
- (9) Violent Fight (6/1) – this is a great fit for the race. I have plenty of reasons to discount the other horses and this horse seems to excel in all of those areas. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 4
Race 4 is a 6 furlong trip on the dirt. A 76 beyer has usually been necessary to take it down. The edge will be given to the early runners. The race has seen the bulk of the winner’s come from the inside post positions. My favorite plays are:
- (1) Incredible Miss (9/2) – this horse likes to sprint and it gets back to its element today coupled with a drop in class. There is good early speed but will probably fade a little late. This is it’s 2nd race off a layoff so i expect improvement in its most recent beyer. I’m thinking an underneath finish is possible here. ⭐⭐
- (3) Probably Grace (6/1) – This horse is dropping multiple classes today and was putting in work that should translate to some of the best speed in the field. I like it to improve this time out and carry more of its speed later in the race. Probably my favorite horse due a bit to getting the inside.⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Take Charge Again (7/2) – in dropping multiple classes today, TCA projects to get back in the mix after a couple lackluster performances. There is good speed and a good jockey. I think the upside is 2nd. ⭐⭐⭐
Down The Back Straightaway
Race 5
This jam-packed race will take us 1 mile on the turf. This race has seen an advantage to the late runners. Average winning beyer is 77. All of these horses are dropping in class and i expect them to start with a leg up on much of the field.
- (5) Wicked Mercury (7/2) – The numbers are there for the horse, jockey, and trainer. I expect a battle at the end with the 1 horse for the middle positions on the board. ⭐⭐
- (1) Our Fantasy (4/1) – the talent is there but it doesn’t appear to hold its speed as well as a couple other horses. I see a battle with the 5 down the stretch. ⭐⭐⭐
Race 6
We are still on the turf going 1 mile. Late runners have had success, especially coming from the inside post positions. The race typically has a good pace, with the winner gaining an 86 beyer.
- (2) Prince Khozan (6/1) – there is a lot of early speed here and it does ok at carrying some speed through the Stretch compared to other early runners. It will probably fade some so I like an underneath run today. ⭐⭐
- (6) Lookin at Roses (9/2) – the recent beyer speed figures are exactly what you want to see. This is a late runner that should benefit from the early pace. There is a win contender here. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Lucky Mike (8/1) – There is good speed here and it’s almost sneaky speed. If you look closely you’ll see that the speed is achieved vs tougher competition. I think that 8/1 is undervalued considering that this horse is dropping in class. At 2 dollars, this is my favorite horse in the bunch. I think it’s possible for a high finish. Gimme the value. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 7
We’re going 1 mile on the dirt, this time. The early running horses have success. This race tends to have an inside post bias. We are looking for a moderate pace with a beyer speed of 84.
- (7) Genghis (8/1) – this is not your typical 8 to 1 shot and i expect it to get bet down prior to post. I like the value here as its best speed is faster than the rating of the race. I think there is 2nd place upside .⭐⭐⭐
- (8) Dizzy Sight (9/2) – there is a lot of ability here and a drop in class but has not raced in over 3 months. There will be some sort of rust to shake off and the trainer does not have a history of winning off a layoff more than 90 days. The field isn’t crazy strong so I would think underneath is very possible, maybe more. ⭐⭐
Race 8
We are back on the turf and still running a mile. We like a late runner or speed horse on the inside to have an advantage. A 76 beyer or better is what we desire, so a slightly slower pace.
- (2) Hero Up (4/1) – this is not a strong field and this horse has been fairly consistent in its speed. HU is going up in class but I can’t think of a softer way to go up a class. There is still a risk in having not seen the stronger horses too often but this horse might just be up for the challenge. ⭐⭐
- (6) Earthquake (8/1) – I wanted to challenge myself to pick 3 horses in this race and this was number 3. Earthquake has put up good numbers before but bombed in its last race. I could see a bounceback here to some extent but I don’t think there is any win upside. ⭐⭐
- (8) Drama in Dixie (5/2) – I think this horse experienced a bit of a bounce last time out but I certainly love its chances to hit the board now that it has dropped in class. The overall ability is there and should be contending at the end. ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
… As We Turn for Home!
Race 9
A 92 beyer is desired for 6 furlongs on the dirt. It’s a sprint worthy of the name. Early speed on the inside has the slight advantage.
- (2) Fast Loaded (10/1) – this horse has raced 4 times and finished in the money 4 times. FL gets Gaffalione at the wheel and we could see this horse take some more strides forward. I like it underneath with a little upside. ⭐⭐⭐
- (6) R Mercedes Boy (4/1) – big speed up top and it can carry some but i think the 9 will catch it at the end. ⭐⭐⭐
- (9) Just Kidding (7/2) – there is a lot of speed here and the horse is in good form. I think we have a win contender here from the outside. I really like how it carries its speed through the stretch. I think it will be moving faster at the end. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Race 10
An 87 beyer is desired for the 5 furlong trip on the turf. Speed rules the stable. In this field, I am probably eliminating any horse that can’t reasonably turn in a race at better than an 87. This eliminates plenty.
One note I have on the even money favorite, 15 Trev, is that it’s a better dirt sprinter than turf and that’s where it’s earned its big time elite beyer figures. On turf the best it has done is on par with the horses below and it has a low percentage jockey. That’s not to discount it, entirely as the trainer is good and sometimes the jockey can get out of the way of a horse of this caliber; but it will carry high ownership. There isn’t really any upside here and if we miss the winner no big deal. In the DFS contest, I will fade that horse and look to pick up ownership elsewhere. With the scratches it will be uber-popular.
- (9) Captain Ron (4/1) – probably my favorite horse in the bunch today. Great speed early and late. Win contender. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (3) Factorino (15/1) – i think this is an underneath candidate. There was maybe a little bit of a bounce last time out but there is clearly speed here and if it gets a good trip might sneak in at the finish. ⭐⭐
Race 11
An 87 beyer is desired for the 5.5 furlongs on the dirt. We want an early or late-running horse from the inside.
- (1) Silent Tiger (9/2) – there is a good trainer and a good jockey. If they are on the same page then I love this horse. It’s pretty removed from its 92 beyer speed but this race is also shorter than what its been running and it drops in class. ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- (6) Very Amusing (6/1) – this is a very in-form horse that won its last time out. Speed is good for this group and I expect to see it on the board at the end of the race. ⭐⭐⭐
- (7) French Quarter (5/2) – im a little wary of this horse. It has won 3 of its last 4 races and 1 of those wins was a sprint, but is dropping in class. Why? Doesn’t make sense to me. It has great speed and could hit the board easily unless something is wrong that we don’t know about. ⭐⭐
Scratches – TBD
Race 1 – 8, 10
Race 2 – 5
Race 3 – none
Race 4 – none
Race 5 – 13, 14, 15
Race 6 – none
Race 7 – 1, 2, 4
Race 8 – none
Race 9 – 4
Race 10 – 8, 11, 12, 14
Race 11 – none
We can talk about other horses but these are my plays for now. I’ll see ya in the chat. Good Luck!
