Hello DFS Army members and welcome to a new idea I’ve had here for the 2020 NBA season. With the way data and info is available to all DFS players, all of the “great plays” are pretty easy to identify, thus leading to them all being highly owned in your big field tournaments and double-ups. This article is here to try and help you identify some of those plays that are flying under the radar, whether it be from breaking news, a certain player being out on an opposing team that improves a matchup, or simply someone who has just gone overlooked. I’ll utilize the Research Station and Domination Station and Ownership Projection tools we have here at DFS Army, as I truly believe they are the best in the business.
Tonight we have a really juicy 10 game slate, so ownership is going to be a little more spread out than it would be on a smaller 6-8 game slate, or the 4 game slate like we saw last night. Here’s my process for finding some of these GPP pivots:
The first thing I will look at is the Research Station and our all in one comprehensive And1 rating. First look gives us this:
This gives us a preliminary idea of who some of our top plays are going to be here tonight, they’re also likely going to be popular. From there I go and sort at each position by projected ceiling and we get:
I use ceiling for a reason, considering this article is focused on GPPs, you want to have guys with the highest ceilings (a.k.a. can score the most fantasy points), but we also have to keep in mind, that when a guy has a high ceiling, his floor is usually lower and more volatile. But in GPPs, you have to risk it if you want the biscuit. Looking at ceiling is also crucial because it can help us identify a pivot right there based on our ownership projections. Now, from here, I’ll look at who is popping for value, since we’ll need some value if we want to fit in some of these higher priced studs/pivots into our lineups:
Value can also help you identify the chalk, as those that are dirt cheap with high value ratings will likely be chalky, especially in cash games. Now comes the crucial step, ownership and identifying the chalk. With everyone having access to this data or an optimizer, certain players will be more popular than others. We have to be able to identify those plays that can still smash for us at a much lower ownership if we want to take down GPPs. It’s quite easy, go to the Domination Station and you can sort by highest projected ownership. Here are the top 3 highest owned per position today:
This gives us our chalk at each position for the day. Now that we have identified it, we can find ways to pivot off of it.
My GPP Pivots:
Ricky Rubio over Chris Paul- CP3 is a great play, don’t get me wrong, but checking in at 29% ownership he’s not really a guy I love for GPPs, given that his ceiling is usually around 40-45 FPs. When we look over at Rubio, he’s projected at under 10% ownership, playing Detroit who absolutely bleed FPs to opposing PGs, along with the fact that he’s leading in the RS in the Who’s Hot section, as he’s scored 45.5, 65.7, and 42.2 FPs over his last 3 games. He’s also $700 cheaper and allows you to free up some salary. He is a bit volatile, but the ceiling is there along with the matchup and ownership percentage we like.
Caris LeVert over Devin Booker- I’m not going to talk you off Booker at his price at all, but given that he’s projected at over 40% ownership you’re going to have to get different from him if you want to win a GPP. He’s scored over 40 FP’s in 3 of his last 5 games, and at least 36 FPs in each of those last 5 as well. He also draws a pace-up matchup against the Hawks who don’t play defense against PGs. What I really love about LeVert is that he will see usage with the 2nd unit as well which will only improve his usage. He’s my favorite pivot off of Booker here.
Kevin Porter Jr. over Bojan Bogdanovic- KPJ has quietly been on a tear since the ASB, and his minutes are trending upward as he is beginning to really phase Cedi Osman out of the rotation. He’s extremely athletic and doesn’t need to score to get you FPs. He also showed us that he has a really high ceiling. Given how well New Orleans is playing, I can see them blowing the Cavs out, and that will only allow Porter Jr. to get more run. I’m projecting him for around 24-28 minutes off the bench, with upside for more. He’s definitely not as safe as Bojan in this spot, but I believe he has a higher ceiling and will come at 5% ownership compared to 32%.
Harry Giles over Dario Saric/Naz Reid- They’re starting to catch up here, but no one has completely caught up with Giles’ recent production. He is a solid FPPM guy and he’s still priced under 5K on FanDuel. His last 3 games he has scored 33.4, 32.8, and 29.1 all while playing at least 23 minutes. With Holmes out again tonight he should see 25+ minutes and draws a really solid matchup as well. He’ll also come at a projected 2% ownership, which makes him a great pivot off of the other chalky value guys at PF.
DeAndre Jordan over Tristan Thompson – Thompson is also a great play, but at nearly 30% ownership the secret is out when Drummond is out, you play Thompson. DeAndre Jordan will get to face off against the Hawks, who rank dead last against opposing C’s over the past 2 weeks, and will come at a projected 6% ownership. I wouldn’t recommend playing all of these guys over the given chalk, but one or two pivots off of the chalk puts you in a really great spot for having a better shot at taking down a GPP.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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