Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I am @LowOwnedWR and you can find me out on Twitter. But you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers in an attempt to make our members better, more fundamentally sound players. If you are looking for it, we cover it as a team! Follow me, follow us, interact with me, interact with us, we welcome it all.
NHL DFS At A Glance
These are all of stats/rates that I like to look at for teams. I feel as it helps give you an idea of which team is shooting the puck (which will result in goals) and who is giving up the most shots (which will result in goals) and more, let’s break those down.
ODDS: The % chance that the team will win the game. Teams with the highest % to win goalies tend to be chalk and good cash plays.
O/U: The predicted combined score of the teams playing in said matchup. 6.5 will be the highest that you will see and 5.5 will be the lowest.
ITT: Implied Team Total; looking at this can help you tell what the chalk will be, the team with the highest ITT on the slate will be the chalkiest and the lowest will be the lowest owned. In GPPs it can be good to just cut out the top team or two in ITT and build from that.
GF/60: The amount of goals a team has scored per 60 minutes of time on ice.
GA/60: The amount of goals a team has allowed per 60 minutes of time on ice.
xGF/60: Expected Goals For per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a shot in really close from the slot might have a .35 xG (expected goal) value or higher, meaning, that the higher a teams xGF/60 is, the more high quality chances that team is creating. Nothing can be worth 1.0 xG.
xGA/60: Expected Goals Against per 60 minutes of time on ice. Example being, a team allowed a rebound right outside the crease, that shot is likely to have a .3 xG value or higher, meaning, if a team is allowing rebounds, high danger chances or basically anything that can be a predictor for future goals allowed, you can use xGA/60 to see that.
SF/60: Shots For per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what goalies are potentially going to see a lot of shots (meaning they have a higher ceiling) or what defensemen are going to see a lot of Blocked Shots opportunity.
SA/60: Shots Against per 60 minutes of ice time. You can use this to see what teams have been bleeding shots so you can target skaters going against them, also teams with a higher SA/60 goalies tend to have higher ceilings and they also tend to be cheap because they are normally projected to lose.
PP%: Power Play Goals divided by Power Play Attempts. Teams with higher PP% tend to score more goals.
PK%: Measures the rate in which a team prevents their opponents from scoring on the Power Play. Teams with a higher PK% tend to allow less goals.
vMatchup: Averaging up GA/60, xGA/60 and SA/60 and giving it a value. Target teams in the RED as they are giving up the most goals and shots.
vOffense: Averaging up GF/60, xGF/60 and SF/60 and giving it a value. Look at teams with the higher ratings as they are scoring more goals and have players who are shooting the puck.
If you have questions regarding these numbers or this chart, don’t hesitate to ask me on our coaching forums. Just tag me (@LowOwnedWR) and let’s get on the same page.
Quick Read: NHL Cash Game Basics – Get The Fundamentals First
(All stats below from last ten games)
Detroit Red Wings @ Ottawa Senators
Detroit Red Wings: Not looking to touch this dumpster fire tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Ottawa Senators: The Senators may be a dumpster fire but they are a dumpster fire with value. Connor Brown has had a recent good stretch and remains cheap and has high ice time potential, same with Thomas Chabot. I also like Josh Norris on OTT1 and PP1
5 star plays – Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris
4 star plays – Connor Brown
Cash viable – Connor Brown, Thomas Chabot, Josh Norris
GPP Sleeper – Connor Brown
Carolina Hurricanes @ Montreal Canadiens
Carolina Hurricanes: Hurricanes team on a skid on a tail end of a B2B on the road, not something I am looking at tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Montreal Canadiens: Canadiens just fire the puck on net and lord knows who Carolina is going to throw in between the pipes tomorrow. Brendan Gallagher is the puck shooter I am looking at here, I also like Brett Kulak as a value play.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Brendan Gallagher
Cash viable – Brett Kulak
GPP Sleeper – Brendan Gallagher
Vancouver Canucks @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Vancouver Canucks: I am a firm believer in the fact that this Maple Leafs team is good and I am not looking to roster the team against them on the road who are 1.0 underdogs.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are in line for a big day tomorrow and Kasperi Kapanen is good value for the stretch he has been on recently, hopefully he can get a couple extra shifts.
5 star plays – Auston Matthews
4 star plays – Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen,
Cash viable – Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen, Justin Holl
GPP Sleeper – Kasperi Kapanen
Colorado Avalanche @ Nashville Predators
Colorado Avalanche: As much as I love throwing MacKinnon in my line ups without a second thought this is just not the spot, and if I am not rostering Nate, I am really not looking at the rest of the team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Nashville Predators: Roman Josi has failed me every time I write him up and none of the forwards on this team get good ice time, just a bad look all around.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Dallas Stars @ St. Louis Blues
Dallas Stars: Lowest implied total on the slate as they just cannot break this Blues team.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
St. Louis Blues: This game just looks to be slow and with better spots I would rather just fade it all together.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Buffalo Sabres @ Arizona Coyotes
Buffalo Sabres: B2B on the road against a very well defensively coached team in the Coyotes, I just do not desire to look here tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Arizona Coyotes: Taylor Hall has not really done what we know he is capable of doing recently, that will have the change eventually and tonight is a good spot. He is good value on both sites but he is all I want from Arizona tonight.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Taylor Hall
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – Taylor Hall
Winnipeg Jets @ Edmonton Oilers
Winnipeg Jets: Edmonton is no longer a give me match up with two good lines and the Jets have not been an offensive juggernaut by any means as of late.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Edmonton Oilers: Ethan Bear is on PP1 and great value on both sites and McDavid has been on fire and his line mates are real upside and are still cheap (Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou).
5 star plays – Ethan Bear, Connor McDavid
4 star plays – Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou
Cash viable – Ethan Bear, Connor McDavid, Tyler Ennis, Andreas Athanasiou
GPP Sleeper – Leon Draisaitl
Pittsburgh Penguins @ San Jose Sharks
Pittsburgh Penguins: Malkin is great value and took 2 penalties last night so I expect him to come out angry and hungry.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Evgeni Malkin
Cash viable – Evgeni Malkin, Bryan Rust (FD)
GPP Sleeper – none
San Jose Sharks: Not looking to roster this mess of a team unless it is a great matchup.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash viable – none
GPP Sleeper – none
Goalies:
Antti Raanta (DK): Over 14 DK points in each of his last 4 starts and gets the Sabres on a tail end of a B2B.
Mitch Hogberg (FD): Two straight good starts and now faces the worst team in the league, while being great value at home.
