Welcome to the DFS Army NBA Free Squares article, where I will try to break down my favorite NBA Free Squares and Fanduel and Draftkings for Today’s NBA slate.
So what is a Free Square exactly? In DFS we define the Free Square as a player to build your lineups around. Generally, this player represents the closest we can find to a sure thing for the slate.
This column is all about trying to identify the free square for a particular slate. Often times, this will be a low-cost player who is thrust into a starting role and sure to make or exceed value. The type of player that allows us to load up the rest of our lineup with high salary studs. Occasionally it will be a high priced stud in a great spot. Each slate we will take a look at three or four players which represent great value on the day’s slate of games and choose the one which best represents the top value and floor play to earn the title of the slates Free Square
My NBA Free Squares for Today 🇺🇸 December 20th
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors are going to shape this slate today as they are dealing with a series of injuries to their starting lineup and they have an ELITE matchup against the Washington Wizards.
Pascal Siakam is out indefinitely with a groin issue, Norman Powell is out, Marc Gasol is out and Fred VanVleet is being listed as questionable. This is going to create some great value opportunities today for us to take advantage of.
If VanVleet is out Kyle Lowry will be a lock and load play today as he has a ridiculous 37% usage rate with these players out. If VanVleet ends up playing tonight, Lowry and VanVleet are both in play simply because of the minutes they are going to have to play.
With Siakam and Gasol out, Chris Boucher and Ronda Hollis Jefferson are going to become elite value options on this slate. Jefferson is only 4.1k on Draftkings and 3.6k on Fanduel, while Boucher is 3.3k on DK and 3.5k on FD. I prefer Jefferson as he’s been more reliable in his career. He’s generally a fantasy point per minute player and he should be locked into close to 25-30 minutes tonight.
OG Anunoby is going to be forced into a huge workload as well and his price is not close to where it should be for that workload. He is priced at only 5.6k on DK and 5.7k on FD tonight. He should play well over 30 minutes in this game, in an elite spot vs the Wizards.
Lastly, Serge Ibaka is going to be the starting Center with Gasol out, but, he’s actually been priced up to 7.4k on both sites. On Fanduel you have to make a decision to go with Ibaka and one of the other cheap Raptor Power Forwards, or, simply punt with both cheap guys. That decision will affect the rest of your lineup tonight. Early on, I’m thinking it may be best to go with two cheap guys at PF on Fanduel, but, it’s early so we’ll come back to this later.
I apologize for not really pinpointing a single Raptor as my “free square” in all of those words above. Truth be told the entire team is in a great spot tonight vs the Wizards and given the injury situation. I will probably prioritize the cheap value of Jefferson and Boucher at Power Forward, and then move on from there.
Detroit Pistons
Blake Griffin is out tonight along with Christian Wood and Luke Kennard being listed as Doubtful. With these injuries, Andre Drummond becomes out top “spend up” option tonight on a slate that doesn’t have many spend up options. In the 12 games with Griffin off the floor this season, Drummond has a 26% usage rate and a near 30% rebound rate and he’s averaging over 50 fantasy points per game.
If you’re looking for value, you can get some with Markief Morris and will be starting most likely. Morris is cheap on Fanduel, only 3.9k but priced up to 5.0k on DK so I will target him on Fanduel first. He’s got plenty of upside at this price and give the injury situation he could see 30+ minutes tonight.
Derrick Rose gets a bump with Griffin out as well. With Griffin, Kennard and Wood off the floor this year, Rose has a 34% usage rate and averages 1.38 fantasy points per minute. He’s been solid all year and gets a significant boost tonight vs the Celtics.
GPP Pivot?
Ownership projections are not out yet, but, if things play out as I’ve noted above, I expect Andre Drummond to be super chalky tonight. The obvious pivot would be to move to a Center in his same price range with the same upside at much less ownership. Those centers are Joel Embid, Nikola Jokic and Hassan Whiteside tonight. I would probably rank them in that order but they all have GPP winning upside so pivot your hearts out.
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Jalen Brunson $6,400 / $5,700
Luka Doncic is out again tonight and the Mavericks are also listing Seth Curry and Delon Wright as questionable. If one or both of them get ruled out tonight, Jalen Brunson could end up playing close to 40 minutes in this game. Brunson has been solid recently, playing 31, 32 and 34 minutes in his last 3 games, scoring 31, 35 and 35 fantasy points in those games. He’s not an elite value, but, with 35-40 minutes likely he’s in a great spot here tonight.
What if???
This is the same situation as the other day so I’ll just leave this here. If Karl Anthony Towns is out there are several ELITE options we can target tonight. First, Jeff Teague gets a usage increase of 3.7% up to 23.8% and he averages around 1.15 fantasy points per minute with Towns out. Andrew Wiggins leads the team with a 29.7% usage rate, and scores around the same per minute at 1.13. Gorgui Dieng will be a great value option and will be the starting Center. He’s cheap across the industry, priced at only $4,900 on Dk and $4,400 on Fanduel.
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AND 1 Top 3’s today
The AND 1 rating was developed by Ben Jammin @xBenJamminx and is apart of our NBA Research Station.The rating is an all-encompassing metric that will lead you to the best plays on each slate each day. One of my favorite things to do is use the ADORE 😍 feature in the Domination Station on all of these players so that I’m sure to get heavy exposure to them across my lineups.
Nikola Jokic leads the slate today with a 19.9 AND1 Rating in his matchups against the T’Wolves. Check out the Rest of the Top 3 at each position below. Mix in the Free Squares with these guys below when you build your lineup this evening.
PG – Kyle Lowry
Kemba Walker
Collin Sexton
SG – Jrue Holiday
D’Angelo Russell
Bradley Beal
SF – Brandon Ingram
Will Barton
OG Anunoby
PF – Kevin Love
Serge Ibaka
Draymond Green
C – Nikola Jokic
Joel Embiid
Nikola Vucevic
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