This week we get week 10 started with the Chargers taking on the Raiders.
My name is Hunter Sinclair and I occasionally write about showdowns and game breakdowns for the main slate in the Slack channels. I have had a long history with DFS for football going back to the very beginning with Kevin the Football Geek. If you were around back then you might remember me from Hunter’s Corner where I used to do heavy defense breakdowns, matchup analysis and various other write-ups. In this article I’ll break down how how I personally approach attacking these showdown games using this weeks game as an example.
Additionally, @Burns273 and I have been doing a pod for the DFSArmy called the “Off-Chalk Pod” where Burns and I go through the main slate and breakdown how we see each game playing out and which off-chalk (lower owned) plays are our favorite and which ones are most likely to pay off in GPP contests. This is a GPP tournament focused pod as both Burns and I have chased and been successful with getting Live Final qualifier tickets over the last several years. The plays and methods we use are also relevant for playing in most of the regular GPP tournaments as well.
So How Does Showdown/Single Game work?
If you want more detail on this – checkout @DFSUpNorth’s articles as he goes into much more detail on Showdown lineup construction.
Each site runs their contests a bit different but for the most part they are very similar. You pick 6 players from the game (5 on Fanduel), and choose one to be your Captain (MVP on Fanduel) and that person scores 1.5x points than everyone else.
On Draftkings you can play QB, RB, WR, TE, K, and DEF while on Fanduel you can play QB, RB, WR, TE, K but no Defense.
Scoring is the same as normal NFL DFS contests. On DraftKings there is a full point for PPR and that makes pass catchers more valuable while you only get a half point on FanDuel.
You need at least one player from each team on your roster. So you can’t just load up all on one team. Optimally I like to build with 4 of one team and 2 of the other on DraftKings and 3 of one team and 2 of the other on Fanduel, though 4-1 seems to be pretty solid there as well.
Looking for a podcast to listen to on your way to work or while mowing the lawn? Check out our Podcast Page for some great listens from @ffootballgeek and other coaches.
Game Breakdown:
The approach I take with every showdown I play is to come up with what I think it the most likely scenario to play out on the field for that game. In order to do this I need to consider a lot of variables and then make my best educated guess of what I think all that means. I will try and break it down in slightly more simplified version for everyone below. We talk about doing this a lot (although maybe not exactly how I approach it with applying the theory to the projections), but we do preach about making your lineups “tell a story”. It’s like those old “Choose your own adventure” novels you might have read when you were a kid. You fill in the blanks, make choices along the way and in the end the story and ending can be completely different based on all those small incremental choices. So let’s choose our adventure for this game…
One way that I breakdown rosters is through our Research Station. We will have a stand alone research station for the Thursday games this year, which I’m pumped about, check it out here! –> Showdown/Single Game Research Station
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Stats for this game:
I start by looking at the specific team matchup, the vegas line, O/U, and recently I have been using the Power Rankings that @statsational puts out each week for everyone to see under the Beat The Bookie NFL section. This is where I start, and where pretty much every DFS player starts. Let’s be honest – I don’t think there are many DFS players out there who are not at least using Vegas Lines, O/U, and DVP rankings to determine who they will play in games.
Anyhow, I get a first read on the game this way and for this game you can see on the surface that LAC is a slight favorite -1 on the road in what should be a pretty moderate scoring game 47.5 O/U. OAK has been terrible at stopping the pass this year, but pretty good at stuffing the run. On the other side LAC have been pretty good vs the pass and not as great vs the run.
Once I have a general idea of what the teams are best/worst at and how to attack each side, I start to dig a bit deeper. What I am looking for are anomalies or indicators where there is some match in opposing skills (like if one team sucks at protecting the QB and the other team is racking up the sacks). One anomaly is that while OAK is very good at limiting rushing yards they are only middle of the pack against limitting points to RBs which means that pass catching backs do better than only rushing RBs against them – the Chargers have 2 good pass catching backs and both are in play.
Here are Stats for this game that I specifically looked at in considering my scenarios:
| OAK | LAC | |
| OFFENSIVE STATS | ||
| Hurried on off. | 23 | 29 |
| ADOT | 7.2 | 8.7 |
| Drives end with Score | 36% | 40.70% |
| Drives end in TO | 10% | 14.00% |
| passTD/rushTDs | 14/8 | 12/6 |
| Pass play Sack % | 3.40% | 4.60% |
| Pass plays Int % | 1.60% | 2.10% |
| DEFENSIVE STATS | ||
| Pressure | 15.4% | 24.1% |
| TO% | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| Sacks per game | 1.9 | 2.3 |
| Blitz rate | 17.7% | 14.8% |
| Scoring drives allowed | 43.4% | 33.0% |
Then I look at what these teams do both offensively and defensively for the below stats and take an average between the offensive and defensive stats to come up with a projection for each of these:
| TEAM: | OAK | TEAM: | LAC | |
| Snaps | 60.0 | Snaps | 61.0 | |
| TDs | 2.6 | TDs | 2.8 | |
| FGs | 1.6 | FGs | 2.0 | |
| Punts | 3.7 | Punts | 3.2 | |
| TOs | 1.1 | TOs | 1.2 | |
| Rush | 28.0 | Rush | 23.0 | |
| Pass | 30.0 | Pass | 36.0 | |
| Pass % | 51.7% | Pass % | 61.0% | |
| Comp % | 71.7% | Comp % | 67.1% | |
| RY/Play | 4.5 | RY/Play | 3.7 | |
| PassTDs | 1.6 | PassTDs | 2.1 | |
| RushTDs | 0.9 | RushTDs | 0.7 | |
| PassYPer | 10.6 | PassYPer | 11.9 |
All these stats above help me to form a picture of how I might see the game playing out. How many TDs, Field Goals, Punts, Turnovers, etc are each team likely to have. All these individual parts are important for showdowns since we want to know how much we can expect from a kicker or defense in addition to the other skill players.
Here are the projections I am coming up with for the general game outcome for each team based on the above:
For tonights game I have a come up with a few scenarios of what might happen, there are plenty more you could come up with on your own using this same method and information, but these are what I am using for my lineups. Below is the description of each, why I think it might happen that way, and if it does what the projections for players might be in that case.
IMPORTANT:
Before I jump into the Scenarios, I want to highlight a very important aspect to doing these scenarios. If you are interested in playing a turd in your lineup like a guy that may only get 1-2 catches and a touchdown then you should adjust the other players from the same team to compensate. Here is an example. Let’s say we want to run Patton from LAC tonight in 1 or 2 of our 20 lineups. We are projecting LAC to score a total of 3 TDs and 2 of those coming by way of pass and 1 by rush. So, in order for Patton to be in the Nuts he has to get a TDs since he is like never targeted. So we are basically hoping for a 40yard pass and TD to him since getting 5 points isn’t going to be enough. If he gets 1 catch for 40y and a TD then that is 11pts. That is enough to be in the nuts. So if Patton gets 1 of our 2 TDs then we need to adjust projections for other receivers since we only have 1 other TD from a catch between K. Allen, Williams, Henry, Ekler, Gordon. I spread out the chances of the other TD going to Henry, Ekler, Allen, Williams, Gordon in that order. Then we have the single rushing TD between either gordon or ekler (by rushing gordon is the highest likelyhood). What this means is that our projections for these guys may come down enough for a guy like Waller or T. Williams to be the better play. You will want to do the same thing if you are running a scenario where you think Rivers targets Henry to a higher than normal amount for example.
SCENARIO 1:
Based on my normal projections I have the Chargers winning by 7. (See above)
I expect OAK to score 4 times and LAC to score 5 times. Both teams have fairly solid offensive lines and have been protecting their QBs pretty nicely. These means the QBs should be able to be fairly efficient with passes and the running games can both maybe produce some value. The OAK defense has been pretty good at stopping the run, however they are still giving up points to RBs which means they give up passes to RBs and that is basically how LAC use both their RBs. OAK sux vs the pass badly to WRs and TEs. So this should be lined up to be a great game for Rivers and all pass catchers. For OAK we are mainly going to be targeting Jacobs and the heavy volume role he has been getting against a LAC team that can’t seem to stop the run. The Chargers have been really solid against QBs, WRs and TEs so far so Jacobs is definitely the main focus here for me. There could be 1 pass catcher who does enough to be in the nuts as well – so I will mix in T. Williams, Renfrow, Jones, and Waller a bit. Carr does like to zero in on a guy when it is working, so I think I am okay with limiting my lineups to have Jacobs + 1 pass catcher at max for this scenario. Carr likely to come in around 13-15 fpts makes him a tricky to play at his price. He might need to be in some lineups but only if he outscores all his pass catchers – I don’t have any problem playing him with non of his pass catchers here with jacobs. The scenario where this works is where he gets 15 points and outscores all his pass catchers and the other guys you have in the lineup from LAC also outscore the OAK pass catchers. It is a narrow margin but possible so I don’t like setting rules to exclude it. It is more likely to happen to a QB who passes more to his lead RB.
| Player | MyDKProj | CAPT |
| Philip Rivers | 23.2 | 34.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 22.8 | 34.2 |
| Keenan Allen | 15.7 | 23.6 |
| Melvin Gordon | 15.4 | 23.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 15.0 | 22.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 14.7 | 22.0 |
| Mike Williams | 12.8 | 19.2 |
| Derek Carr | 12.6 | 18.9 |
| Tyrell Williams | 12.0 | 18.0 |
| Darren Waller | 12.8 | 19.2 |
| Michael Badgley | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Daniel Carlson | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7.4 | 11.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| Zay Jones | 6.6 | 9.9 |
| Jalen Richard | 5.8 | 8.7 |
| Foster Moreau | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Deandre Washington | 3.5 | 5.3 |
| Virgil Green | 1.9 | 2.8 |
SCENARIO 2:
I call this one “It’s a turd’s day in Paradise.”
Listened to the Geek’s pod and he got me thinking about General Patton and I mentioned him above in the Important section. So I ran a scenario whereby he catches a 43y TD pass and adjusted others accordingly – this didn’t change OAK numbers at all. Here is what it looks like:
PROJECTIONS BASED ON SCENARIO 2
| Player | MyDKProj | CAPT |
| Philip Rivers | 24.2 | 36.3 |
| Josh Jacobs | 22.8 | 34.2 |
| Melvin Gordon | 15.4 | 23.1 |
| Austin Ekeler | 14.4 | 21.6 |
| Hunter Henry | 14.1 | 21.1 |
| Keenan Allen | 13.9 | 20.9 |
| Darren Waller | 12.8 | 19.2 |
| Derek Carr | 12.6 | 18.9 |
| Tyrell Williams | 12.0 | 18.0 |
| Andre Patton | 11.3 | 17.0 |
| Mike Williams | 11.0 | 16.5 |
| Michael Badgley | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Daniel Carlson | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7.4 | 11.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| Zay Jones | 6.6 | 9.9 |
| Jalen Richard | 5.8 | 8.7 |
| Foster Moreau | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Deandre Washington | 3.5 | 5.3 |
| Virgil Green | 1.9 | 2.8 |
SCENARIO 3:
Lets name this last scenario “Keenananananananananananan – oh we have other players???”
This is the scenario where Rivers just dials in Keenan Allen and forgets everyone else. So we jack up Allens Receptions to 10 catches on 14 targets and 1.4 TDs and distribute the other .6 of a passing td between williams, henry and ekler. Reduce their catches by 1 or 2 each and we get the following:
PROJECTIONS BASED ON SCENARIO 3
| Player | MyDKProj | CAPT |
| Keenan Allen | 33.6 | 50.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 23.2 | 34.7 |
| Josh Jacobs | 22.8 | 34.2 |
| Austin Ekeler | 13.8 | 20.7 |
| Darren Waller | 12.8 | 19.2 |
| Derek Carr | 12.6 | 18.9 |
| Melvin Gordon | 12.2 | 18.2 |
| Tyrell Williams | 12.0 | 18.0 |
| Michael Badgley | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Mike Williams | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 8.2 | 12.3 |
| Daniel Carlson | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 7.4 | 11.1 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 7.0 | 10.5 |
| Zay Jones | 6.6 | 9.9 |
| Jalen Richard | 5.8 | 8.7 |
| Foster Moreau | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Oakland Raiders | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Deandre Washington | 3.5 | 5.3 |
SCENARIO 4:
Lets name this last scenario “Oakla-hand me the win”
This is the scenario where Oakland actually stymies the chargers offense a bit and can put some pressure on Rivers and cause some TOs. This is the most unlikely of my scenarios tonight, but lets just see what it looks like so we can build a couple different lineups.
PROJECTIONS BASED ON SCENARIO 4
| Player | MyDKProj | CAPT |
| Josh Jacobs | 24.3 | 36.4 |
| Philip Rivers | 18.6 | 27.9 |
| Derek Carr | 18.2 | 27.4 |
| Darren Waller | 17.4 | 26.1 |
| Keenan Allen | 16.3 | 24.5 |
| Hunter Henry | 14.7 | 22.0 |
| Austin Ekeler | 13.4 | 20.1 |
| Tyrell Williams | 13.2 | 19.8 |
| Mike Williams | 12.8 | 19.2 |
| Melvin Gordon | 9.3 | 13.9 |
| Oakland Raiders | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Daniel Carlson | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| Hunter Renfrow | 8.6 | 12.9 |
| Michael Badgley | 8.0 | 12.0 |
| Zay Jones | 7.2 | 10.8 |
| Jalen Richard | 6.4 | 9.6 |
| Foster Moreau | 5.1 | 7.7 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 4.0 | 6.0 |
| Deandre Washington | 3.5 | 5.3 |
Put Projections into Action:
So Hunter, How do I make a lineup based on these projections you might be asking?
Well you can take a few approaches, but what I do is to enter my projections directly into the Domination Station. If you are using the DomStation – you can plug in those numbers directly overwriting the projections in there and generate your lineups using the new projections. It would be very hard to run too many scenarios if you were only doing like 20 lineups so you probably would want to pick a single scenario in that case and just go all-in on it to maximize you chance of hitting the nuts lineup. But if you run 150 then you could pick all fours scenarios and run 25% of each if you wanted – or come up with your own scenarios. In 20 lineups I might run all 4 scenarios and pick the top lineup from DS from each and then run the other 17 lineups using the scenario I like the best.
Another approach is just to use this method to tweak the DFSArmy Projections up / down using to more closely align with your scenario projections. That might mean removing players from your pool completely or essentially fading a high priced guy by dropping his projection a lot lower.
Or finally you could just go to DraftKings and enter a lineup manually. Start at the top of your projections list, pick the guy out front for your captain and play around with fitting as many of the high scoring projection as you can into a single lineup.
Final Thoughts:
So now you have a few possible scenario outcomes you can think about when you play this game. There are countless other ways this could go, but what I like to do each week is try to determine the most likely to happen outcomes for the game and then divi up the targets, runs, yardage, TDs based on all the factors I discussed above and that is where I come up with the projections. Best of Luck Army….
–Hunter’s Corner
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