Hello DFS Army members and welcome to Mutt18’s Value Traps and Who’s Trending for the 2019-2020 NBA DFS Season! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 6-7 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. If you’re familiar with last year’s article then welcome back! I’m very excited to keep doing these as I feel they provide a huge edge, especially now that FanDuel has gotten rid of the Drop Score, identifying those Value Traps is going to be even more important as rostering one of them in your lineup will ruin your night. For those unfamiliar or new to the article, I break things down as follows:
This article here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, is a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
Today we have a small slate but there’s still plenty of money to be made, especially with most people focusing solely on NFL. Let’s take a look at yesterday’s article:
Results
Traps:
Jarrett Allen (FD: 29.1 DK: 32.25 ) – 4.4x value on FanDuel and 5.7x value on DraftKings. Either way I can guarantee you, if you had Allen in your GPP lineup you didn’t do anything spectacular as there were much better options that crushed last night.
Zach Collins (FD: 13.1 DK: 15.25) – 2.47x value on FanDuel and 3.1x value on FanDuel. We were aided by an injury here, which you hate to see, but he was still way too passive in this offense and didn’t do much in the time he was on the floor.
Who’s Trending:
Kendrick Nunn (FD: 34.8 DK: 37.5) – 7.1x value on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He was an easy plug and play last night with the lack of value on the slate.
Karl-Anthony Towns (FD: 49.2 DK: 51.25) – 4x value on FanDuel and 5.1x value on DraftKings. We knew he was an automatic on DraftKings, but he did disappoint a little last night after scoring over 70 his first two games. Cody Zeller breaking the slate didn’t help either.
Justise Winslow (FD: 43.6 DK: 44.0) – 6.2x value on FanDuel and 6.1x value on DraftKings. He was a plug and play option last night with no Butler and Dragic seeing less minutes on the second half of a B2B. Easily returned 6x value and crushed for us.
Value Traps
Allonzo Trier (FD: $3,500 DK: $3,400) – Trier is projected right now to net you 5.6x value on DraftKings and 5.2x value on FanDuel. However, we all know how fickle Fizdale can be, as he won’t commit to a starting point guard as they have DSJ, Ntilikina and Elfrid Payton, yet Trier started the first game. I know that DSJ is out this game for personal reasons, but I’m just going to be safe and fade Trier here, as we have some better value options on this slate that don’t come with the risk of getting you a big fat 0 in your lineups. Yes, he may go off with now DSJ but 9 times out of 10 Fizdale and Co. will burn you, just save yourself the headache.
Marc Gasol (FD: $5,700 DK: $5,400) – As of now, Gasol is projected to get you 4.9x value on FanDuel and 5.2x value on DraftKings. His price has come down only a few hundred dollars and he’s just looked absolutely pathetic on offense. Ibaka also has a significant role off the bench so the minutes just aren’t there for him to really reach that unless he is being super efficient, which he hasn’t been at all this season. Throw in the fact that over the first few games he’s returning 2.7x value which really just doesn’t get it done for me at all, especially on FanDuel where we have a few Centers in smash spots.
Just Missed the Cut: De’Andre Hunter (FD: $4,900 DK: $5,000) – He’s projected to net you 5.6x value on FanDuel and 5.3x value on DraftKings which boggles my mind a bit. The Hawks have a few guys that cut into his playing time, Cam Reddish, De’Andre Bembry among the main ones and he also has Trae Young with a usage rate of close to 40% and Collins is their second option which doesn’t leave much meat on the bone. He’s also netting you a return of 3.2x value over the first few games.
Who’s Trending
Malcolm Brogdon (FD: $7,600 DK: $6,900) – I love Brogdon in this spot, as he’s been quietly producing at an insane rate since joining this Pacers team. He’s returned over 6x value over the last few games and Jeremy Lamb has also already been ruled out for this game which will boost his usage that much more. It looks like he’s going to be their main scorer until Oladipo comes back. He’s a bargain at this price and will go overlooked on a big slate like this.
Andre Drummond (FD: $10,300 DK: $9,300) – I LOVEEEEEEE this spot for Drummond as it is the perfect time to play him after he burned everyone in his last game by getting into foul trouble early and not playing much. Blake is still out so Drummond will see a ton of usage here and is a FPPM monster, as he still scored over 30 FPs in 24 minutes after being in foul trouble really early in that game. He should see 35+ minutes in this game and Myles Turner also isn’t a great rebounder so the 20-20 potential for Drummond in this game is in play. He has 80 FP upside as he showed just a few games ago and he’ll come in at lower ownership with it being a bigger slate and after burning people the other night. He’s just way too cheap on DK for his upside and this is the perfect time to play him as you have to have a short memory, especially in NBA DFS.
Brandon Ingram (FD: $8,500 DK: $7,500) – He gets a huge boost if Jrue is out again tonight, but even if Jrue plays they’ll likely take it easy with him as he has a sprained knee and they’re already without Zion so I don’t see him playing his full minutes. He showed off that he is going to be a leader on this team, as he almost put up a 60 burger last game against the Rockets. He gets another nice matchup as the Warriors have been struggling, plus he excels in fast paced games like this, and I’ll keep plugging him in, especially at his price on DraftKings. If Jrue does play it is a slight downgrade to him but he is definitely playable.
Just Missed the Cut: Derrick Rose (FD: $6,500 DK: $5,400) – Reggie Jackson is doubtful again for this game, and while Tim Frazier will likely draw the start, it is Rose who sees the biggest boost. He almost put up a 50 burger last game and he’s still just way too cheap, especially on DraftKings. However, he does take a hit if Jackson plays so keep an eye out.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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