Hello DFS Army members and welcome to the first installment of Mutt18’s Value Traps and Who’s Trending of the 2019-2020 NBA DFS Season! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 6-7 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. If you’re familiar with last year’s article then welcome back! I’m very excited to keep doing these as I feel they provide a huge edge, especially now that FanDuel has gotten rid of the Drop Score, identifying those Value Traps is going to be even more important as rostering one of them in your lineup will ruin your night. For those unfamiliar or new to the article, I break things down as follows:
This article here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, is a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
Today we have a small slate but there’s still plenty of money to be made, especially with most people focusing solely on NFL. Let’s take a look at yesterday’s article:
Results
Traps:
Ivica Zubac (FD: 15.0 DK: 14.75) – He only returned 3.2x value on FanDuel and 3.5x value on DraftKings. Hopefully you avoided this trap.
Landry Shamet (FD: 12.0 DK: 12.5) – Only returned 2.85x value on FanDuel and 2.9x value on DraftKings. Nailed both of these picks.
Who’s Trending:
Coby White (FD: 19.7 DK: 19.5) – Coby definitely disappointed a little yesterday, but that game as a whole was a letdown from a fantasy perspective as it wasn’t as high scoring as we were anticipating. Still, he returned 4.19x value on FanDuel and 4.15x value on DraftKings, which didn’t kill you. And with the upside he showed the first two games you need guys like that in your lineups.
Josh Hart (FD: 36.1 DK: 36.25) – 8.6x value on FanDuel and over 10x value on DraftKings! Once Jrue was ruled out we knew that he was a lock, especially in that high scoring pace up game. He didn’t let us down.
Pascal Siakam (FD: 31.2 DK: 33.0) – When it comes to let downs, Siakam is the guy who ultimately killed my night. I had a ton of him and he just didn’t return value like I thought he would after flashing to 60-70 FP upside he showed opening night. The game as a whole was a disappointment as we thought it would be higher scoring, and he also got into a bit of foul trouble. We’ll go back to the well here though with some success in the near future.
Value Traps
DeAndre Jordan (FD: $4,600 DK: $4,400) – Not sure where this is coming from, as he’s currently projected to return over 5x value on both sites but he’s splitting time evenly with Jarrett Allen in this Brooklyn offense and he’s averaging a value return of only 3x over the first two games. He’s not viable for daily fantasy unless Allen is out in my opinion.
UPDATE: Jordan is now starting for the Nets, this changes things for me as he is no longer a value trap on this slate. Jarrett Allen now takes his place as a value trap instead.
Zach Collins (FD: $5,300 DK: $4,900) – He just doesn’t get enough usage in this offense in order to be fantasy relevant at this price. While yes, he does start, he’s the 4th option behind Dame, McCollum, and Whiteside. He also doesn’t really look for his shot, as he only took 5 shots last game and is way too passive. He’s gonna need someone like Whiteside or one of the two guards to be out for him to be playable.
Just Missed the Cut: Dennis Schroder (FD: $4,900 DK: $6,400) – He just doesn’t get enough minutes, especially with how well SGA has been playing. His price is absolutely untouchable on DraftKings, but he’s projected at 5x value on FanDuel, and I just don’t see him getting close to that.
Who’s Trending
Kendrick Nunn (FD: $4,900 DK: $5,300) – Jimmy Butler is still not with the Heat after having a child, and Nunn has been filling in as the starter. He likely gets one more game to start here, as Butler will return after this weekend. He’s scored over 30 FPs in each of his two starts, and he’s just simply way too underpriced here. The Heat are coming off a big win against the Bucks yesterday, and the second half of a B2B doesn’t faze me here with how young he is. Waiters also isn’t with the team either, which just boosts Nunn that much more.
Karl-Anthony Towns (FD: $12,200 DK: $10,100) – He’s an automatic lock on DraftKings at his price, and I’m still paying up for him on FanDuel as he’s scored over 70 FPs in each of the first two games which would still be over 6x value. This team is all his now with Jimmy Butler gone, and he’s shown that he is going to be an absolute force this year. The fact that he barely scratched the 10K marker on DraftKings boggles my mind, plug him in there and move on.
Justise Winslow (FD: $7,000 DK: $7,200) – Winslow is running the point without Butler available, and Goran Dragic will probably be resting after playing a ton of minutes against the Bucks yesterday. Like I said with Nunn, with Butler not available it frees up a ton of usage for these guards, and if Dragic is out like I think he will be, Winslow becomes a core play as he has 50 FP upside in that case.
Just Missed the Cut: PJ Washington (FD: $6,000 DK: $6,200) – The price has gone up a bit, but he’s shown that he’s going to be a huge part of this Charlotte team, and they’re going to need him in this game against the Lakers. The matchup isn’t the greatest, but you’re going to need to take a more balanced approach with your lines today unless some value opens up outside of Nunn. He’s scored over 30 FPs in each of his first two games and has 40 FP upside if this game stays close.
Everyone, NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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