Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a small 4 game slate, but the good news is that all of these teams have something to play for, whether it be seeding or trying to ruin someone else’s playoff chances. Now let’s dig in.
Value Traps
Jakob Poeltl ($3,700) – This one depends on whether or not Rudy Gay starts at the four again. I have a feeling that they’ll keep their rotation and start Gay at the 4 and Aldridge at the 5 which basically kills any value that Poeltl had. If he starts then I think he’s a decent value play as he’ll see more minutes that way, but lately he’s been trending way down in our model:
I’m avoiding him if he comes off the bench, as the minutes simply haven’t been there. Case in point is last game where he saw only 12 minutes. Even if he does start I’m not flocking to him as I don’t think he sees more than 20 minutes with Gay playing and that kind of time restriction doesn’t give him the ceiling we’re looking for in a value play, especially on a small slate.
Dennis Schroder ($5,200) – Schroder has been trending downward for awhile now, especially with PG13 and Westbrook at full health heading into the playoffs. The Thunder still are playing for seeding, as if they win and the Spurs lose they would move into the 7th seed, which would help them avoid Golden State in the first round. Hint: No one wants to play GS in the first round, so I see them relying on PG13, Westbrook, and Steven Adams again tonight. His numbers speak for themselves:
I don’t know about you, but I’ll pass on the guy averaging 2.9x value.
Who’s Trending
Steven Adams ($6,100) – He’s been tearing it up down the stretch and OKC is looking to right the ship before the playoffs start, and Adams gets a cake matchup tonight against the Lakers. Let’s take a look at how he’s been doing the past few games:
The Lakers are 24th aDvP against Centers on the year, and like I stated above, the Thunder need to win this game if they want to keep up and pass the Spurs for the 7th seed. They will definitely come to play tonight and I expect Adams to be a beast down low. He’s wayyyyy too cheap for this matchup and is averaging almost 7x value lately.
Rajon Rondo ($6,600) – With LBJ sitting out the past few games, Rondo has been absolutely tearing it up! Don’t believe me? Take a look:
He’s put up over 50 FPs that last two games and is still under 7K on DraftKings. He also gets the Russell Westbrook defensive treatment tonight anddddddd we get nationally televised Rondo, who is much better than regular Rondo. He has the upside to win you a GPP tonight.
Trae Young ($8,300) – Guards against the Spurs is still a thing, and young Trae Young gets that matchup tonight. He’s finishing off what is a very impressive rookie campaign, and at times I thought he would even challenge Luka for Rookie of the Year (I still think Luka has it locked up). But either way, he gets a good matchup tonight and has been hot over the past few games:
He’s also seeing upwards of 35 minutes per game and this game also has the added benefit of being the highest O/U on the night at 229. I expect Trae to really try and make a push to influence voters to pick him over Luka, so I expect him to ball out these past few games.
Just Missed the Cut: DeAndre Bembry ($4,500) – Taurean Prince is doubtful again tonight and I’ll be firing up the trusty Bembry as I really doubt Justin Anderson goes off for another 50 FPs tonight. Last game he scored 36.5 DK points and that’s the kind of value we’re looking for. Just make sure that Prince is out tonight before you plug him in.
Everyone, end of season NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
https://giphy.com/gifs/QJrdWvgrLyNdm
