Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of April! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a hugeeeeeee 13 game slate, there’s not much time, let’s dig in. First we’ll look at last article’s traps:
Royce O’Neale (15.0) – Him and Sefolosha kill each other’s value, as shown even with Rubio and Crowder out.
Thabo Sefolosha (5.5) – See above.
Rodions Kurucs (19.0) – He’s really not getting the minutes we want.
Jakob Poeltl (19.25) – Actually got decent value, but not the upside we look for.
Now last articles picks:
Mitchell Robinson (33.25) – Still solid but definitely underperformed.
Goran Dragic (22.5) – Both Winslow and Robinson played which really killed his value like I said.
Luke Kornet (11.25) – I should know better than to trust Fiz by now.
Andre Drummond (67.75) – 🔥🔥🔥
Value Traps
Luke Kennard ($3,900) – Wayne Ellington has been limiting Kennard’s ceiling as he has been red hot shooting wise over the last few games, and without Blake they’ve been leaning on Ellington and Drummond to score. Luke is also very scoring dependent, which you know that I’m not a fan of by now and he just really lacks the upside for me tonight, especially with so many options on a 13 game slate.
Elie Okobo ($3,200) – We’ve done this dance before, and although the Suns don’t have many bodies tonight, I still won’t be playing Okobo. He really lacks any upside and you also have two guys that are on his team that are in the same price range that I believe will easily outscore him tonight. If you need Suns value, I would go with Troy Daniels and Jamal Crawford 100 out of 100 over Okobo. He’s burned me too many times this year and I’m not falling for it again.
Jeremy Lamb ($5,300) – Charlotte doesn’t really have anything to play for tonight and they’re going to want to continue looking at what they have in their young guys, specifically Miles Bridges and and Dwayne Bacon. Lamb has been playing well off the bench but with Batum also back it will be tight for minutes at those positions with all 4 of them playing and the majority of minutes going to Bacon and Bridges. Devonte Graham has also been getting solid minutes which caps Lamb’s upside even more.
Just Missed the Cut: Jahlil Okafor ($4,300) – Christian Wood has taken over as NO’s go to guy with Davis out, and even if Davis is out again tonight, Okafor’s ceiling is capped by Wood’s presence and doesn’t have much upside if any at all. I won’t be playing him tonight.
Who’s Trending
Trey Burke ($4,600) – He’s going to play a ton of minutes tonight and is my favorite value play on the night. Both Luka and Brunson have been ruled out for tonight’s game already, so he should see all the minutes that he can handle at PG. He’s also trending wayyyy up in the RS:
He also only played 16 minutes last game and he should see 30+ tonight. He is volatile though as you can remember with his time for the Knicks, but he checks all the boxes I’m looking for tonight. He has legit 8-9x value upside.
Andre Drummond ($9,900) – Let’s just look at his numbers first shall we?
The Pistons are still hanging onto a playoff spot, and they’re leaning on Drummond to keep those playoff hopes alive. Blake is also a GTD tonight but even if he plays he wont be 100% so Drummond will likely take on the majority of the workload down low as evidenced by him playing 43 minutes last game. Even at a high price tag he’s been averaging 6.3x value and almost 60 FPPG over his last 5. Even with a tough matchup against Adams, the Pistons need Drummond to have a big game.
Josh Jackson ($5,900) – No Devin Booker, no DeAndre Ayton, and now Richaun Holmes has also been ruled out. Sign me up for all the Josh Jackson! New Orleans has the worst overall team defense and are bleeding fantasy points at every position over the last 2 weeks. The Suns simply don’t have the bodies right now and Jackson should see 35+ minutes in a pace up matchup against a terrible defense. I love his upside tonight and could return close to 10x value if everything goes his way.
Just Missed the Cut: Evan Turner ($4,200) – Turner has triple doubled the past 2 games, and while I don’t expect him to do it again, he has been the one benefitting the most from McCollum’s injury. At only 4.2K he’s a really great value play and is trending way up in the RS.
Everyone, end of season NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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