Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of April! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a small 4 game slate, but the good news is that all of these teams have something to play for, whether it be seeding or trying to ruin someone else’s playoff chances. Now let’s dig in. First we’ll look at yesterday’s traps:
Jakob Poeltl (8.0) – Told you, with Gay starting he’s not going to get the minutes, 2.2x value🚮.
Dennis Schroder (22.5) – Didn’t reach 5x value again, I’m likely avoiding him until playoffs. Russ also dominated usage like I predicted.
Now we’ll look at yesterday’s picks:
Steven Adams (38.5) – 6.3x value🔥🔥
Rajon Rondo (35.0) – Still over 5x value, but he got outshined by Russ.
Trae Young (27.5) – Spurs look like they’re starting to tighten up on PGs heading into the post season.
DeAndre Bembry (16.25) – Major let down, Bazemore went off, we had the right process, variance got us on this one.
Value Traps
Royce O’Neale ($3,400) – Him and Thabo Sefolosha are basically in the same role with Favors out, they pretty much split the minutes at around 20-25 which essentially takes them both out of play. You’re essentially playing a guessing game with who is going to play the better game, and where one dud kills you on DraftKings, I’m not playing any guessing games.
Thabo Sefolosha ($3,300) – See above, these two really take each other out of play and limits both their ceilings. There’s enough value and mid tier priced guys in good spots tonight where we shouldn’t be forced to play either of them.
Rodions Kurucs ($3,500) – He’s really just been struggling to close out the season, as we can see from his numbers:
The Nets are still in the playoff picture sitting in the 7th seed, and with what we’ve seen from Kurucs lately, he really doesn’t have the ceiling we’re looking for in a value play. His absolute ceiling is around 30 FPs and that’s only if everything falls his way, which it hasn’t over the last few games. I’ll be avoiding him tonight based on that reason alone.
Just Missed the Cut: Jakob Poeltl ($3,500) – He’s back here for the same reasons as yesterday, if Gay starts it kills his value and with the Spurs still battling to stay in the 7th seed, I don’t see him seeing the floor much tonight.
Who’s Trending
Mitchell Robinson ($7,100) – Fizdale has come out and said that Jordan likely won’t play the rest of the year, which gives a huge opportunity to MitchRob. He’s been taking full advantage as well:
He’s still wayyyyyyy too cheap on DraftKings at 7.1K, I’ll be loading up on him and I recommend you do the same.
Goran Dragic ($6,800) – Keep an eye on news with this pick, as it really hinges on whether Josh Richardson plays, if he plays he’ll likely start and push Dragic back to the bench where it’ll cap his ceiling a bit. I’m not as concerned if Justise Winslow plays as he’s been out for awhile and will likely have a minutes restriction. When both are out, take a look at Dragic’s numbers the last few games:
And that includes the 50 burger he just put on the Celtics a few days ago. I love him tonight if Richardson sits.
Luke Kornet ($4,700) – If you would’ve told me I’d be recommending two Knicks in the same article I probably would’ve slapped you. But Kornet has been tearing it upppppp the past few games:
He’s put up over 40 FPs in each of his last two and should get all the minutes he can handle again tonight. At his price tag he has the ability to get you 9-10x value, sign me up!
Just Missed the Cut: Andre Drummond ($9,700) – Love him again tonight especially if Blake sits again. He just put up a 50 burger against this Pacers team and he’ll come to play tonight because Myles Turner stuffed him a few times last game so you know he’ll want to show him up.
Everyone, end of season NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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