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Full Court Press:
Washington Wizards @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Cha -4.5
Pace: Cha +2.5
The Wizards go on the road to face the Charlotte Hornets in one of the higher totals on the slate. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal has been one of the most consistent fantasy producers in the league as of late. He’s scored 50+ fantasy points in eight of his last ten games and the Hornets rank 27th in the league against opposing shooting guards. I’m more tempted to play him on Draftkings because his price is up there on Fanduel, but for good reason. I ended up playing a lot of Tomas Satoransky last game against the Mavericks and it ended up working very well as he dropped 44.5 Draftkings points. He’s a decent play in that price range. Jabari Parker is an elite GPP play given his price tag, but you can’t touch him in cash games. Bobby Portis, Trevor Ariza, and Jeff Green all cut into each other’s production, of the group I would prefer Ariza given his minutes security. From the Hornets, this is a fantastic spot for Kemba Walker. He feels underpriced on both sites and draws an above average matchup against the Wizards. The same Wizards that just gave up 60 fantasy points to Luke Doncic. In two matchups against the Wizards this year, Kemba is averaging 58 fantasy points per game. As always, the Hornets team as a whole is popping in the Research Station on Draftkings where they are all usually underpriced.
Marvin Williams is never a fun or exciting roster, but if you fall on him I’m certainly okay with it. The Hornets have pulled the rug out from under Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and given his minutes to Frank Kaminsky. Kaminsky has played well, scoring 25+ fantasy points in his last three games if you need a value play. Jeremy Lamb and Nicolas Batum are very similar plays in my eyes, play Batum if you need safety and play Lamb if you need some upside.
5-star play: Bradley Beal, Kemba Walker
4-star play: Tomas Satoransky, Trevor Ariza, Jeremy Lamb, Nicolas Batum, Marvin Williams
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Frank Kaminsky
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Parker
Dallas Mavericks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 213.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -7.0
Pace: Orl +1.4
Starting with the Mavericks, Luka Doncic is coming off a very nice 60 point fantasy game against the Wizards. He gets a bit of a tougher matchup here, but his price hasn’t budged. He’s a very nice play on tonight’s slate. Dwight Powell’s price continues to climb as he keeps producing game after game. Powell’s price hasn’t gotten to the point where I might not get a whole lot of him, and I worry that Vucevic draws him away from the basket which will lessen his rebounds and blocks. He’s a fine play, I just don’t know that I’ll go there. Dorian Finney-Smith makes for a good value play if Maxi Kleber sits again, he’s under $4k on both sites and should see 25+ minutes should Kleber sit. Tim Hardaway is a GPP play only for me given his volatility. Jalen Brunson has been up and down lately and people may go there for some value, but on a nine-game slate, I think we can find better options. From the Magic, Nikola Vucevic burned the world in his last time out and he draws another good matchup here. I’m willing to go back to the well, as he is one of the more consistent centers in the league and will come at reduced ownership. The price is decent on Aaron Gordon, but there are better options for cash games tonight. Go ahead and fire him up in GPPs if you want exposure to him. Jonathon Isaac is also a bit up and down, he’s another GPP play. As always, Evan Fournier is a cash play and Terrence Ross is the GPP play.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Dwight Powell, Evan Fournier
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Dorian Finney-Smith
GPP Sleeper: Terrence Ross, Aaron Gordon, Jonathon Isaac
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Detroit Pistons @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 218.5
Vegas Spread: Det -3.5
Pace: Det +0.6
Starting with the Pistons, the two guys you’re going to want to attack here are the big men. Andre Drummond would be my preferred of the two. I don’t normally fall on Blake Griffin as he always feels overpriced. Neither of them are core plays, but they are certainly in good spots here. As for the rest of the Pistons, I’ll make it short and say I don’t have a ton of interest outside of the possible punts in Wayne Ellington and Luke Kennard. From the Bulls, Lauri Markkanen’s price has finally come back down to a playable price range. His size will certainly be needed tonight if he’s able to stay out of foul trouble he could be in for a nice game. Given the matchup, he’s a 4-star for me tonight. Otto Porter continues to produce for this Bulls team, scored at least 37.25 in three of his last four games. However, the Pistons are number one in the league in defense against opposing small forwards, so be careful there. Zach LaVine is coming off a huge game against the 76ers and will haven’t really seen much of a price increase on Draftkings. He’s a very solid play. Robin Lopez has scored 30+ fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and his size will be needed tonight against the Pistons big front-court. Kris Dunn never really excites me, but you can go there if you fall in that price range.
5-star play: Andre Drummond
4-star play: Blake Griffin, Lauri Markkanen, Zach LaVine, Robin Lopez
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wayne Ellington, Luke Kennard
GPP Sleeper: None
Utah Jazz and Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 212.0
Vegas Spread: Utah -5.5
Pace: Mem +4.2
This is the lowest projected total on the slate, and honestly a game I am looking at crossing off on this slate. However, there is some value on the Jazz we can target. Ricky Rubio has been ruled doubtful for tonight. If Rubio, Neto, and Exum are all indeed out as it sounds like they will be, Royce O’Neale becomes one of the better plays on the slate. He will likely play close to 35 minutes and is averaging 0.73 fantasy points per minute with those guys off the floor this season. At nearly min price on Draftkings and min price on Fanduel, he’s certainly in play. Donovan Mitchell sees a huge usage bump with those guys off the floor at 38.8%. The matchup isn’t great and it’s a very slow game, so I would leave him as a 4-start tonight. Kyle Korver also makes for a good value play, he’s scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. Other than that, Gobert, Ingles, and Crowder are all fades for me tonight given the slow pace. From Memphis, the only thing that excites me here is Avery Bradley who is still too cheap on Draftkings only. He’s not playable at $6.1k on Fanduel. Mike Conley has been playing great going over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four. The Jazz rank 29th against opposing point guards, so Conley is in play here for me. The rest of the Grizzlies are pure fades for me.
5-star play: Royce O’Neale (If Rubio and Neto are OUT), Avery Bradley (Draftkings)
4-star play: Mike Conley, Donovan Mitchell
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Royce O’Neale, Kyle Korver
GPP Sleeper: None
Cleveland Cavaliers and Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 213.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -8.0
Pace: Cle +1.8
This is another very slow game that I will probably look to avoid… I guess you can make a case for David Nwaba as a punt play, but I think better value will open up. Larry Nance is a little too volatile for my liking and this isn’t enough of a pace up spot for me to like him. Finally, Kevin Love saw 30 minutes last game and put up 55 Draftkings points. He is the one Cavalier that I can play with confidence. From the Heat, there’s a whole lot of nothing here for me. If you want to get exposure here, I guess you can go with Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson or hope for another Hassan Whiteside game, but I just don’t think you’ll need to go here on a nine-game slate.
5-star play: Kevin Love
4-star play: Dwyane Wade, Josh Richardson
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: David Nwaba
GPP Sleeper: Hassan Whiteside
Philadelphia 76ers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Pace: Hou +3.8
We don’t have a total on this game yet, I’m not sure why since Embiid has already been ruled out, but we will carry on regardless. Starting with the 76ers, Embiid is still out here meaning we can go back to Ben Simmons, Tobias Harris, and Jimmy Butler. Ben Simmons’ price tag came way up on Fanduel, but you can still go there on Draftkings. Jimmy Butler may come to play in a matchup against James Harden, he is my favorite of the three tonight on Fanduel. Tobias Harris disappointed in his last time out, but this is a good bounce-back spot for him. JJ Redick is a fine play as the last guy into your lineup, but I’m not forcing him in by any means. From the Rockets, James Harden will likely draw Jimmy Butler defense which is never ideal, but its an up pace spot for him. With most people looking at the OKC and LAC game, Harden may go under-owned here. Clint Capela is a nice price and should be able to do what he wants against the undersized Sixers front-court. He hasn’t been as great as he was since being injured, but this is a nice spot for Capela, the Research Station has him projected to go for 6.1x here. Chris Paul is priced about right here, I don’t love him and I don’t hate him. PJ Tucker makes for a nice value on Draftkings and should play upwards of 30 minutes in this one.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons (Draftkings), James Harden, Clint Capela
4-star play: JJ Redick, Chris Paul, Ben Simmons (Fanduel)
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: PJ Tucker (Draftkings)
GPP Sleeper: None
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Toronto Raptors @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.5
Pace: Tor +2.7
The Research Station loves Danny Green and Marc Gasol here. I never really play Danny Green because he’s so scoring dependent but he makes for a good value play. Marc Gasol’s minutes are a bit all over the place, if Gasol starts then I like him quite a bit. But, if he comes off the bench I’ll likely avoid him. The Pelicans rank 23rd against opposing small forwards, making this a pretty good spot for Kawhi Leonard. Although, I’ll likely go elsewhere on this slate. Kyle Lowry has played 40+ minutes in the past three games, and went over 50 fantasy points in two of them. He’s certainly in play here. Serge Ibaka and Pascal Siakam make for decent plays here, but not a priority at all. From the Pelicans, we will need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for Anthony Davis news. But, for now I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in. We do have some value here however, Jrue Holiday will be out for tonight’s game and the Research Station has Kenrich Williams and Elfrid Payton being 7x plays tonight.
With Jrue Holiday off the court this season, here are how the impacted usage rates play out;
- Elfrid Payton – 25.7% usage rate; 1.17 FPM
- Julius Randle – 31.4% usage rate; 1.42 FPM
- Kenrich Williams – 16.2% usage rate; 0.75 FPM
- Anthony Davis – 35.8% usage rate; 1.56 FPM
Kenrich Williams, Elfrid Payton, and Julius Randle should all play 30+ minutes here and I don’t have a problem with any of them. Anthony Davis is actually in play here given the usage rate, just know he won’t play more than 23-25 minutes.
5-star play: Marc Gasol (If starting), Kyle Lowry, Kawhi Leonard, Elfrid Payton, Kenrich Williams, Julius Randle
4-star play: Anthony Davis
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Kenrich Williams, Danny Green
GPP Sleeper: None
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0
Pace: Lac +2.0
This will be one of the highest scoring games on the slate, so let’s see if there are some plays we can attack here. Paul George had a massive night last night and his price hasn’t budged. I love him in this spot especially on Draftkings where he is under $10k. Russell Westbrook draws a great matchup here, as the Clippers are ranked 28th in defense against point guards on the season. Steven Adams draws the best matchup on the team, as the Clippers rank 29th in defense against opposing centers. The Research Station likes him to almost 6x his price tag. Dennis Schroder and Jerami Grant are off of my radar until their prices are adjusted to George being back in the lineup. From the Clippers, the Research Station shows that Montrezl Harrell draws the best matchup, but I’m hesitant in targetting big men against Steven Adams. Patrick Beverley is in a sneaky good spot, Russell Westbrook loves to turn the ball over and Beverley is one of the best on ball defenders in the league. Look for Beverley to pick up some extra steals and blocks here on his way to exceeding value. As always, Lou Williams is my favorite play here. He leads the team with a 32.5% usage rate and scores 1.25 fantasy points per minute.
5-star play: Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Steven Adams, Lou Williams
4-star play: Patrick Beverley, Montrezl Harrell
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: JaMychal Green
GPP Sleeper: None
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: GS -6.5
Pace: Den +3.0
Another one of the highest scoring games will be between these two teams. From the Nuggets, Gary Harris finally broke out after returning from injury. He played 30 minutes and scored 35.5 fantasy points. He should be a nice value play here. Nikola Jokic is my favorite play here, he’s struggled in two matchups with the Warriors this season, but his price is awfully tempting. The Warriors rank 26th against opposing point guards on the season, which puts Jamal Murray in play here. Finally, Paul Millsap and Will Barton are decent plays but nothing I’m prioritizing here. From the Warriors, you know my feelings on Kevin Durant and Steph Curry, play whichever one fits your lineup better if wanting to get exposure to them. Durant draws the far better matchup, as the Nuggets rank 29th in defense against small forwards and they rank first against point guards. DeMarcus Cousins draws a very tough matchup against Nikola Jokic, but his price has come down on Draftkings to where I think he’s playable. Klay Thompson and Draymond Green are the guys I usually target from this team given their affordability. They’re both in good spots tonight and make for great mid-range options with a ton of upside.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
4-star play: Steph Curry, DeMarcus Cousins, Will Barton, Paul Millsap
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Gary Harris
GPP Sleeper: Will Barton
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