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Full Court Press:
New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 212.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -12.0
Pace: Ind +2.0
Of the totals that we have so far, this is the slowest game on the slate, and it’s not all that close. Starting with the Knicks, we know they are very hard to trust, so going there in cash games isn’t something I want to be a part of. However, they do make for some interesting GPP plays. Noah Vonleh has scored 20+ fantasy points in four of his past five games and has been getting decent minutes as of late and makes for a nice GPP play. DeAndre Jordan and Mitchell Robinson draw the best matchups, as the Pacers rank 21st against opposing centers, predicting who will get the minutes between the two is the difficult part. Dennis Smith’s price has come down a bit and could be playable here, if he gets the minutes he averages about 0.96 fantasy points per minute on the year. Damyean Dotson is also worth a flyer, he’s been getting big minutes but is a bit too volatile for cash games. The Pacers are a bit underpriced, especially on Draftkings. All of the starters draw pretty decent matchups, as the Knicks are pretty bad defensively. Domantas Sabonis returned from injury last game and was able to play 20 minutes. I would expect that number to slowly increase up to the 27-28 range. Darren Collison under $6k is a pretty nice price given the matchup. Bojan Bogdanovic has seen a bit of a price increase but has been playing extremely well lately, he’s worth a shot in tournaments. Myles Turner is kind of stuck in the no-mans land for me, the price seems a bit high and he can be volatile at times. He certainly has the upside, but I’ll likely go elsewhere in cash games. Wesley Matthews is going to play minutes into the upper 30’s and makes for a nice value option if you land on him.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Noah Vonleh, Darren Collison, Myles Turner, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Wesley Matthews
GPP Sleeper: Damyean Dotson, Dennis Smith Jr.
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -13.0
Pace: Cle +5.3
The Cavaliers see a pretty big pace up spot here against the Sixers. With Kevin Love out tonight and Larry Nance questionable, Ante Zizic is popping in the Research Station. He’s pretty close to a lock on Draftkings and probably Fanduel too if Larry Nance is ruled out tonight. Cedi Osman has been getting around 35 minutes per night, so we likely won’t see minutes increase with Kevin Love off the floor. Osman actually loses 0.8% usage with Love off the floor this season. It’s not a reason to fade him, but just in case you thought there was a huge window for Osman here. He’s still a very solid play given his price. Jordan Clarkson has been consistently scoring around the 25 fantasy point mark, if that is going to start to be his floor I’ll have a lot of interest because of the massive upside he provides. Given the difficult matchup, I’ll take a wait and see approach, but definitely something to keep an eye on. The last Cavalier I have some interest in is Brandon Knight who is becoming an interesting value play. He’s scored 27.25 and 30 fantasy points in his last two games and is close to the dead minimum on both sites. He makes for an excellent drop on FanDuel and a nice GPP value on Draftkings. From the Philly side, Jimmy Butler will be rested today, here is how the team’s usage rates play out with him off the court this season…
- Joel Embiid 35.8% usage rate; 1.69 fpm
- Ben Simmons 24.7% usage rate; 1.3 fpm
- TJ McConnell 15% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Tobias Harris 29.9% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- JJ Redick 25.4% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
The Research Station likes TJ McConnell and JJ Redick quite a bit, they will both likely see more minutes with Butler off the floor. Embiid didn’t seem to have any minutes restriction in his first game back from injury. I like him but a potential blowout worries me, as he will likely be the first guy to hit the bench. Ben Simmons is a better play on Draftkings, but too expensive on FanDuel.
5-star play: Ante Zizic, Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons (Draftkings), JJ Redick
4-star play: Cedi Osman, Tobias Harris, Ben Simmons (FanDuel)
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: TJ McConnell
GPP Sleeper: None
Los Angeles Lakers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.0
Pace: Chi +4.5
Starting with the Lakers, I likely won’t be touching LeBron James until his price comes down. Being on a minute restriction really hurts his ceiling potential, although he was still able to get to the 60 point mark in just 28 minutes against the Celtics. Josh Hart will likely see a good chunk of minutes with Brandon Ingram being out for the season. He’s just a 0.71 fantasy point per minute player this season, he’s a fine value on Draftkings, but far too expensive on FanDuel. I kind of like Rajon Rondo here, the Bulls rank 17th against opposing point guards on the season, he’s gone over 30 minutes in three straight games. Mo Wagner has seen over 27 minutes in his last two games, he makes for a nice value here as the Lakers may give him more run down the stretch with their playoff hopes crushed. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine is listed as doubtful for tonight. Here are how the usage rates shake out with him off the court this season…
- Lauri Markkanen 29.1% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
- Kris Dunn 28.2% usage rate; 1 fpm
- Otto Porter 27.7% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Ryan Arcidiacano 15.0% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Shaq Harrison 18.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
Nobody really sees a huge usage bump or point per minute. But Lauri Markkanen and Otto Porter should shoulder the load tonight, making them both great plays against the weak Lakers defense. LaVine missed last game as well and Arcidiacano drew the start. While he drew the start, it was actually Shaq Harrison who was the better fantasy option. Harrison scored 24 Draftkings points across 32 minutes, while Arcidiacano scored 16 fantasy points across 26 minutes. They both make for solid value options tonight.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter
4-star play: LeBron James, Rajon Rondo, Josh Hart (Draftkings), Shaq Harrison, Kris Dunn, Ryan Arcidiacano
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Shaq Harrison, Ryan Arcidiacano, Mo Wagner
GPP Sleeper: Mo Wagner
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San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total:
Vegas Spread:
Pace: SA +0.8
We don’t have a total on this game yet, as we wait on news for Luka Doncic. Starting with the Spurs, the Research Station loves all of the value guys here; being Marco Belinelli, Davis Bertans and Patty Mills. I don’t have an issue with any of them if you need a value play. DeMar DeRozan draws the best matchup here, as the Mavericks rank 23rd against opposing shooting guards on the season. In two matchups against the Mavericks this season DeRozan is averaging 46. Draftkings points per game. Meanwhile, LaMarcus Aldridge has struggled, only scoring 27.8 per game. I like DeRozan quite a bit more here but won’t blame you if you want some Aldridge. From the Mavericks, if Doncic plays he’s a phenomenal play. The Spurs have struggled all year versus opposing point guards. In two matchups with them this year, Doncic is averaging 49.8 fantasy points per game. Keep an eye on our Breaking News Feed for fantasy implications if he ends up being out tonight. I want to play Dorian Finney-Smith at $3.3k in the worst way, but he’s just not doing anything. He makes for a deep GPP value play. Tim Hardaway hasn’t been all that great since joining the team unless Doncic is ruled out I don’t see a reason to have to go with him here. Jalen Brunson has been surprisingly good lately, scoring over 30 fantasy points in his last two games. I probably won’t end up there, but if you want some exposure I won’t talk you off of him. I feel pretty similar about Dwight Powell, we’re paying a premium for him which makes me nervous, but he’s been producing.
5-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Luka Doncic
4-star play: LaMarcus Aldridge, Jalen Brunson, Dwight Powell
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Marco Belinelli, Davis Bertans, Patty Mills
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr.
Milwaukee Bucks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -9.5
Pace: Mil +0.4
The Bucks travel to New Orleans in one of the fastest games on the slate. The Pelicans have been brutal on defense, they rank 23rd or worse against every position except shooting guards. In one matchup against the Pelicans this season, Giannis Antetouknmpo scored 50 fantasy points. At his price, we will need more than that, but this is a great spot for him. Malcolm Brogdon had a very nice game against this team earlier, going for nearly 35 fantasy points, he makes for a very safe cash game play. It’s a revenge game for Mr. Nikola Mirotic, I don’t know that there is any bad blood here, but still noteworthy. He’s too volatile given his invisible minutes restriction for cash, but certainly playable for GPP. I don’t have a problem with Eric Bledsoe or Khris Middleton either, it’s a good matchup and I won’t talk you off of them. From the Pelicans, Jrue Holiday is still out, meaning Frank Jackson and Elfrid Payton should see the bulk of the back-court minutes. Payton went for 50 fantasy points in his last game while Frank Jackson has been steady around the 30-mark. Their prices have come up and it’s not the best matchup, but they’re playable. Darius Miller is a fine value play given the Bucks inability to stop the 3-ball. Julius Randle is a fine pla, but is a bit too pricey for my liking making him a 4-star for tonight.
5-star play: Giannis Antetouknmpo, Malcolm Brogdon
4-star play: Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Elfrid Payton, Julius Randle, Frank Jackson
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Darius Miller
GPP Sleeper: Brook Lopez
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Por -2.5
Pace: Por +2.0
The Blazers travel to the City of Angels for a divine battle. The matchup is excellent for the Blazers against a Clippers team that struggles to defend. Jusuf Nurkic gets one of the best matchups on the board here as the Clippers rank 29th against centers. In their last gam,e he put up 41 fantasy points. The Clippers rank 27th against PGs, opening the door for Damian Lillard who put up 55 fantasy points in their last meeting. CJ McCollum put up 37 fantasy points last time these teams met, making him a solid option here tonight as well. Enes Kanter might not be getting a lot of minutes, but his matchup tonight is terrific and he can crush value here in just 20 minutes of game time, making him GPP viable. Maurice Harkless and Jake Layman are viable GPP targets here if Evan Turner misses the game.
On the Clippers side of things, Lou Williams is currently on a roll, putting up 66 and 43 fantasy points in his last two games. While his matchup is not the best, his current form makes him a good target tonight. Patrick Beverley will be tasked with guarding Lillard tonight, opening the door to 30+ minutes. He put up 34 fantasy points in their previous matchup, making him playable here tonight. Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell will both be needed to keep this game close, something Vegas predicts will happen. They are both playable in the right formats. Finally, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Landry Shamet will get plenty of minutes here tonight, and while the matchup is not the best, they are playable tonight.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic
4-star play: Lou Williams, CJ McCollum, Patrick Beverley
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Jake Layman, Enes Kanter
GPP Sleeper: Enes Kanter
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Den -9.5
Pace: Den +2.3
The Wolves travel to Denver tonight to take on the Nuggets. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins will be game-time decisions tonight. If Towns can suit up tonight, he is absolutely in play as he has been on a tear lately since the car accident and crushed the Nuggets last time they played to the tune of 61 fantasy points. In general, taking on the Nuggets at home is never a good idea as the Nuggets play solid defense and benefit from the altitude. That said, Dario Saric has a good matchup here tonight if he can only make good use of it. If Wiggins misses the game, Keita Bates-Diop becomes a solid candidate to pick up minutes tonight and is playable. If Towns misses this game, Taj Gibson will play a lot of minutes here tonight and is in play as well. We could also get a Gorgui Dieng sighting tonight if Towns is out. His big body could be required to battle down low with Jokic.
On the Nuggets side of the ball, Nikola Jokic makes for an excellent option here tonight, especially if Towns can’t suit up. With Towns, the Wolves have no one that can truly defend Jokic. The Wolves rank 28th against PFs, making the matchup for Paul Millsap an excellent one. He is definitely playable here tonight. Jamal Murray‘s matchup is not the best on the board, but he has a high ceiling and an excellent floor making him a good play tonight. Both Will Barton and Gary Harris will be playable here as the Wolves will struggle to defend all these weapons with all the injuries they are dealing with. Finally, Mason Plumlee could get some extended play time here if this game gets out of hand, making him an interesting value play on the slate.
5-star play: Karl-Anthony Towns, Nikola Jokic (if Towns is out)
4-star play: Nikola Jokic (if Towns plays), Paul Millsap
Deeper Value/FD Drop Candidate: Mason Plumlee, Gorgui Dieng, Keita Bate-Diop
GPP Sleeper: Gorgui Dieng
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