Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on FanDuel. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
Since we’re playing FanDuel tpnight the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
We’ve got a very manageable 7 game slate tonight, with a little later than normal lock time of 7:30, which gives us some more time to research. There are a few landmines that are popping out at me tonight, so I’ll do my best to identify them.
Last Article’s Traps (DK Scoring since last article focused on DK):
Gordon Hayward (18.5) – My Celtics are a mess, they actually play better when Kyrie doesn’t play.
Ivica Zubac (28.75) – He saw a few additional minutes against the Knicks frontcourt, he wasn’t the center plays you wanted yesterday anyway.
Andre Drummond (43.75) – He really salvaged what would’ve been a huge dud with a strong 4th quarter and OT. He still scored the least out of the big name centers on the slate last night.
Josh Okogie (9.5) – Long term I think he’ll be a good player, but right now he’s not really playable unless both KAT and Wiggins are out.
Now we’ll look at my picks from yesterday:
Alex Len (48.75) – 15.2x value, (mic drop).
Mitchell Robinson (42.25) – 6.6x value, this kid’s going to be a stud. Target bigs against the Clippers.
DeAndre’ Bembry (23.0) – 7.7x value, easy plug and play yesterday.
Karl-Anthony Towns (55.5) – KAT actually got outperformed by Vuc, which was a bit surprising.
Pascal Siakam (38.75) – 5.5x value, he’s always a great play when Kawhi is out.
Dennis Schroder (47.5) – 8.8x value.
Hopefully you listened and crushed like I did last night! Narrowly missed out on a $333 Fantasea Ticket, needed 3 more points.
Value Traps
Pat Connaughton ($4,300) – It looks like both Brogdon and Bledsoe will return for this game, which takes Connaughton out of play for me unless we get other injury news. A lot of people are predicting a blowout, but we don’t do that, and this Suns team is actually playing a lot better lately and haven’t really been getting blown out like they were at the beginning of the year. With all those guys healthy he’ll likely see less than 20 minutes tonight, with that type of playing time it really hurts his ceiling unless he sees 24+ minutes. There are better Drop Score options.
Joe Harris ($4,900) – This Nets team is now very crowded with everyone back and healthy. They are now running 12 guys in their rotation, 6 of those guys coming off the bench played at least 12 minutes as well. You have D’Angelo Russell, Treveon Graham, Caris LeVert, Joe Harris, Spencer Dinwiddie, and Allen Crabbe. That’s too many mouths to feed for anyone of these guys to really have that high of a ceiling. Take a look:
With so many guys vying for minutes it really hurts all of them in the end as there’s just too many mouths to feed and not enough minutes to be able to feed them. Harris is losing almost 7 FPs a game since Dinwiddie came back and he’s losing almost 5 minutes of playing time. Unless 1 or 2 of these guys fall out of the rotation or get hurt it makes a lot of them unplayable, particularly Harris.
Kenrich Williams ($5,100) – KennyHustle is going to be unplayable for me when AD, E’Twaun Moore, and Darius Miller all playing. Moore is a GTD tonight, but it looks like AD and Miller will both play. If Moore ends up sitting, I’m still not a fan of Williams. The biggest issue is with all three of those guys back, is that Williams’ usage drops all the way down to 13.3%. Even with Moore off the court, his usage only bumps up to 13.5%. He’s trending downward in the RS as well:
His minutes have taken a hit, and his FP production is down as well. He’s only averaging 3.1x value over his last 3 and under 20 FPs over his last 5. When he was playing those 35+ minutes he was grabbing a ton of rebounds as well, with AD and Randle back there is much stiffer competition for those boards, and we also have had the emergence of Cheick Diallo as well. The upside just isn’t there for you with Williams. I’ll likely be staying away for the remainder of the year.
Just Missed the Cut: Kent Bazemore ($4,400) – He really just hasn’t been getting the job done since he’s come back from injury. This will be a slowdown game for the Hawks against the Heat and Bazemore doesn’t do well in slower-paced games. Trae Young has really taken over the backcourt usage on this Hawks team and I expect Bazemore to continue to be fazed out.
Who’s Trending
Rajon Rondo ($6,100) – The Lakers are scuffling, and it looks like Luke Walton is going to hang onto his job for a little bit longer. He’s said that Rondo is going to be their starting point guard moving forward. Playing alongside LeBron really elevates his play and he’s coming off a predictable down game against the Suns. He plays well against the Clippers, and he’s still trending up in the RS.
His last game against the Clippers he scored 42.1 FPs and is averaging 34 FPs over the last 3 against them. At only $6,100 he should easily net you the 6x value you’re looking for in GPPs. People won’t be as high on him after his dud against the Suns, it’s the perfect time to pounce.
UPDATE: Looks like Rondo’s starter status is in jeopardy, either him or Rondo will move to the bench. Considering we likely won’t get news until after the lock I’m pivoting to Derrick White on FanDuel. He’s been playing really well since coming back from injury.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,100) – The Knicks are not good at defending bigs, especially if DeAndre Jordan continues to be out tonight. WCS will still see the additional minutes with Bagley out and he saw over 30 minutes last game. He’s still way too underpriced on FanDuel given the matchup. He has another shot at 40+ FPs tonight which would get you over 7x value. He’s a really solid play tonight.
Lou Williams ($7,400) – Lou Williams absolutely kills the Lakers anytime he plays them. This has been a thing for awhile, he really steps his game up anytime these two teams play. This year alone he put up 43.3 DKFP’s and 50.3 DKFP’s. He’s also dudded in two smash spot matchups the past 2 games so I expect he will be lower owned than he should be. At 7.4K he has legitimate 50 FP upside if he gets hot. This is the perfect matchup for him to bust out of this mini slump.
Dwight Powell ($6,300) – Mr. Powell gets a cake matchup tonight against the Nets. It’s been our thing to roster bigs against the Nets and Powell is super efficient when he gets playing time, as I’ve mentioned before. Lately he’s averaging over 30 minutes per game over his last 5 with 33 FPs per game in that same time span. He’s trending upwards everywhere:
I’ll be hitching my wagon to a lot of Powell tonight, he has legit 40+ FP upside, I can see him returning 7x value tonight at his price point.
Jamal Murray ($6,900) – Murray has been playing really well for this Nuggets team lately, and the Spurs have been terrible against point guards over the last few weeks and I’ve been having success rostering guards against them. This Nuggets team has really made a big step forward this year and I could see them challenging Golden State in the Western Conference finals. Murray has played well in the previous games against the Spurs this year and is slightly under priced for this matchup. Love me some Murray tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Alex Len ($3,700) – If Collins is out again tonight, lock Len in and move on. He’s crushing the past 2 games and his price has barely moved. But if Collins is back tonight then it really hurts his value, but he’s still playable as a Drop Score Candidate. I don’t think he plays though, he is currently listed as doubtful.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your FanDuel coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
