Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a decent 5 game slate which is small for a Saturday. However there are a few good games tonight, and people will be looking for value (especially in the BKN/ATL game). There’s a few guys I’m worried about, but first let’s look at yesterday’s traps:
Last Article’s Traps:
Royce O’Neal (16.75) – We talked about upside, he was super chalky last night and the guy just doesn’t have the ceiling we’re looking for.
Stanley Johnson (16.50) – No upside here either!
Andre Iguodala (20.50) – If you took down a GPP last night, I guarantee you didn’t have these guys in your lineup.
Lauri Markkanen (31.0) – 4.5x value, he didn’t kill you, but he probably didn’t win you anything either.
Now we’ll look at last article’s picks:
Kevin Love (32.5) – He killed me last night, didn’t do much, he still played over 30 minutes, it was a good play, just didn’t pan out.
Ish Smith (27.0) – 7.5x value! That’s what we’re looking for in a value play. We wanna see those flames on DraftKings, he had them last night.
Kemba Walker (37.0) – Lamb and Williams went off last night, we had the process right, just the wrong guys.
Marc Gasol (19.75) – He was brutal last night.
Frank Kaminsky (16.25) – Charlotte went off last night, just not the guys we were expecting to.
PJ Tucker (14.25) – He didn’t get the peripheral stats I was expecting.
Now let’s dig into tonight!
Value Traps
Vince Carter ($3,500) – Carter had a few good games last week, but he also had the perfect storm for that to happen. The Hawks are now back at full strength (in their backcourt at least) and Carter also announced that he plans to play next year as well, so there go his farewell Hall of Fame minutes. He’ll now be vying for minutes against Huerter, Taurean Prince, DeAndre Bembry, Kent Bazemore and now Jaylen Adams is even seeing playing time as well. He’s projected as getting you 6.2x value in the RS today, but I’m here to tell you that likely isn’t going to happen. In my experience its better on DraftKings to build a more balanced lineup than it is to go studs and duds because if you get one dud you miss the cash line.
Allen Crabbe ($3,400) – There are simply too many mouths to feed in the Brooklyn backcourt now that everyone is back and healthy. Crabbe is competing against D’Angelo Russell, DeMarre Carroll, Spencer Dinwiddie, Caris LeVert, Treveon Graham (who is out tonight), and Joe Harris for minutes. Having that many guys in the rotation really kills his ceiling, until at least 2 of those guys get hurt or taken out of the rotation, you’re basically just playing Russian Roulette with this backcourt as it’s going to be going game by game as to who gets the hot hand. Also, with Graham out again tonight it will likely push Crabbe into the starting lineup with D’Angelo Russell, who dominates the guard usage for that unit. Last game out when those two were on the floor at the same time, Crabbe scored only 9.8 FPs. He’s trending downward everywhere in the model:
Granted this Hawks team is bad and give up tons of points to guards, I see this game being better suited for DeMarre Carroll or Spencer Dinwiddie (who will run the second unit) than I would Crabbe. It’s just not worth the risk for me and I will look elsewhere for value.
Just Missed the Cut: Josh Okogie ($3,300) – I know this will be a fast paced game against the Wizards and there will be a ton of scoring, but Okogie just hasn’t flashed the upside we’re looking for at this point in his career. Even in the $3,000’s he’s only averaging 3.5x value over his last 3 games. Okogie will be the 5th option in this offense moving forward. Count me out.
Who’s Trending
Bobby Portis ($5,700) – Don’t look now but Bobby Portis is back under 6K! He’s really starting to settle into his role with the Wizards and is becoming their #2 guy behind Bradley Beal. He’s also #2 on the team in shots taken over the last few games and put up 16 shots last game (Beal put up 21 for reference). He’s also gets a really good matchup against KAT tonight, and he’ll come to play. He starts out at the 5 for the Wizards, and while KAT is starting to come along, he still needs a lot of work on defense. Take a look at his numbers:
He’s averaging over 6x value over his last 3, and at only $5,700, he has legitimate 50 FP upside on any given night.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,400) – You had to see this one coming right? The Wizards have been horrible at defending big men, and KAT is still on a heater since the All-Star break with the exception of the game against the Pistons. Washington is ranked 28th aDvP against bigs and there are going to be a ton of points scored in this game tonight. I like the idea of ping-ponging KAT and Portis together as they will be battling it out down low. He also has the highest And1 rating on the day and he is averaging over 50FPs against the Wizards this year.
Rajon Rondo ($6,700) – REVENGE GAME! He’s averaging close to 50FPs against the Celtics over the past 2 years and in the matchup earlier this year he put up over 40FPs. As a Pelican last year he scored 56 and 58.7 FPs against them as well. This game will also be nationally televised on ABC, and Rondo always shows up on national TV. Doesn’t hurt that he’s trending in the RS today either:
I like him a bit less if Kyrie is out, but he is expected to play tonight. I’d also have no problem playing both of them against each other.
Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,600) – He finally looked list himself last game, and he was really filling it up. With Treveon Graham out, it moved Crabbe to the starting lineup, which allowed Dinwiddie to have full control of the second unit. Napier has also been ruled out for this game so the second unit will really flow through Mr. Dinwiddie. Last game in this same situation he put up 45.5 FPs and I would expect him to see close to 30 minutes again today against a really bad Hawks defense. At only $5,600 he represents a great value that can put up close to 50. I’ll have a lot of shares of him tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: CJ McCollum ($6,100) – Last time out he was a trap, but that was because it was a slow paced game against Memphis with Avery Bradley guarding him. Tonight he gets a horrid Suns defense and his price only went up $100. I think he scores at least 25 actual points tonight, add in some peripherals and we’ve got ourselves a low floor, high ceiling play for this evening.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I will only be available until around 4p.m. ET today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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