Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a nice 9 game slate on tap. A few of these games standout tonight and game selection will be extremely important! I’ve narrowed down my list and I’ve got a few guys you should avoid tonight, but first let’s look at last articles traps.
Last Article’s Traps:
Dirk Nowitzki (4.0) – He’s ice cold from the field and starting to see his minutes dwindle.
Miles Bridges (11.25) – Kaminsky being back in the rotation takes him out of play.
Reggie Bullock (4.5) – Listen to the Mutt!
3/3 in traps last article!
Now we’ll look at last article’s picks:
Ben Simmons (49.25) – At under 10K on DK he’s going to be a great play as long as Embiid is out.
Tobias Harris (18.5) – He couldn’t make a shot to save his life, the matchup and trend was there, just didn’t pan out.
Blake Griffin (31.0) – The matchup was there, and he averaged over 50 FPs against them, he looked to be more of a facilitator in this game, he also shot 4-13 from the field.
Dwight Powell (45.5) – 7.7x value, Dwight is such a stud in his new role.
Derrick White (50.5) – 9.4x value… he’s absolutely crushing right now and really come on since his injury.
Josh Hart (16.75) – The matchup and minutes were there, still only 5x value at 3.3K.
Now let’s dig into tonight!
Value Traps
Royce O’Neale ($3,300) – He tops the RS today as our projected top value at 7.3x which I don’t really see happening. Even with Rubio doubtful I don’t really like his odds tonight, as Mitchell will likely handle PG duties, thrusting either O’Neale or Korver into the starting lineup (likely O’Neale, possibly even Sefolosha). Either way, Jae Crowder and Kyle Korver will see significant minutes off the bench, and Thabo Sefolosha is back in the rotation as well, which will cap O’Neale’s minutes and upside. The RS has him projected for 35 minutes tonight, but I see it being closer to 25-30 minutes and this is a serious pace-down matchup for the Jazz at -4.20. His usage is also only 11.4% and it actually goes down to 11% with Rubio off the court. Like I’ve been harping on recently, you want value plays that have the ceiling to help you take down GPPs, and O’Neale frankly isn’t checking the boxes we’re looking for. On DraftKings he’s not worth the risk, FanDuel as a drop score candidate? Go for it.
Stanley Johnson ($3,000) – We already know that Johnson is going to come off the bench, and the only reason he’ll likely get playing time is because both Jrue Holiday and E’Twaun Moore have already been ruled out for this game. He’s projected at 6.2x value tonight but he’s honestly too volatile for me given that AD is projected to play tonight and Darius Miller will likely see his minutes increased as well. Miller will likely see over 30 minutes tonight and at the price point, I’d rather have Darius Miller for $200 more.
Andre Iguodala ($3,800) – Iguodala is standing out in the RS again today, he’s currently projected at 5.2x value with Klay Thompson questionable, but it appears that Thompson will return tonight which takes Iggy out of play for me tonight. He’s trending down in the RS as well:
The real reason I think that Iggy is a trap tonight is the recent play of Damion Lee, he’s seeing over 20 minutes per game off the bench and has really impressed Steve Kerr with his play as of late. Now throw Thompson and his 30+ minute role back in the rotation and Iggy will likely be the one getting the short end of the stick, I don’t see him playing more than 20 minutes tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Lauri Markkanen ($7,700) – He’s ice cold in the RS. He’s averaging over 12 less FPPG and in that same span he’s losing over 5 minutes per game. Otto Porter is taking away from his usage and will likely continue to do so moving forward. His price has gone down and he’s a lot cheaper than he was last week, but there’s good reason for it.
Who’s Trending
Kevin Love ($7,800) – Love played over 30 minutes for the first time in a long time, and Thompson and Zizic have both already been ruled out tonight. With both of those guys out of the picture Love and Nance will both see over 30 minutes again tonight. He’s trending up in the RS as well:
If Love is going to see 30+ minutes again at under 7.8K, I’ll sign up for that all day as he averages 1.49 FPPM and has a legit shot at another 50 burger and a really safe floor. I am high on both him and Nance tonight.
Ish Smith ($3,600) – If you’re looking for value at under 4K on DraftKings then look no further! Take a look at the RS:
Hes AVERAGING 7.9x value over his last three and seeing over 20 minutes off the bench. Chicago is also really bad at defending the PG position, as they are ranked 23rd aDvP against the position and they are ranked 25th overall in total team deficiency. There is a slight pace-up matchup tonight and I expect this to be a fairly high scoring game. (Hint: Chicago is also really bad against Centers and Drummond is only $8,800 “wink wink”)
Kemba Walker ($8,100) – Just take a look at his average against the Wizards:
The Wizards are HORRIBLE and I mean HORRIBLE on defense, and almost every game they play turns into a shootout as they’ve scored over 130 points their past two games. I expect there to be a ton of points scored in this game and Kemba is just over 8K against the 28th ranked team in overall defensive efficiency in what will likely be a shootout. Sign me up! He has the upside we’re looking for tonight.
Marc Gasol ($5,600) – THIS PLAY DEPENDS ON WHETHER GASOL STARTS! Ok now that I have your attention be watchful for the news on this one. I have a feeling that he will to matchup with AD to start the game. He’s only $5,600 on DraftKings and will likely see 30ish minutes. He has legitimate 40-50 FPs upside which would net you over 7x value with some upside as well.
Frank Kaminsky ($3,900) – He should continue to see over 20 minutes off the bench and the Wizards are ranked dead last against bigs. He’s still under $4,000 and gets a great matchup in what should be a very high scoring game. I really like him as a value play on DraftKings that should net you around 6x value and allow you to pay up for some of the guys I mentioned above. He’s the one who’s trending the most in the RS:
Just Missed the Cut: PJ Tucker ($4,000) – Kenneth Faried has already been ruled out again tonight which means Tucker will slide into that role and see over 30 minutes. Philly also has a lot of good options on offense and I expect them to put Tucker on Tobias Harris, which means Tucker should be guaranteed 35ish minutes. This should be a hard fought, fast paced game, which means that he should see a bump in his peripheral stats which is where the majority of his fantasy points come from. Any additional scoring we get is just upside.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your DraftKings coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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