Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
We’ve got a very nice 6 game slate tonight, not too much, not too little, it’s just right! I’ve got a few guys for you to keep an eye on tonight that are potential landmines. But before we get into it, just look and the domination we had last night across 3 sites!!! We had Army helmets everywhere!
Last Article’s Traps (FanDuel Scoring since last article focused on FD):
Pat Connaughton (0) – He still played over 20 minutes and put up 0 FPs…you’re welcome!
Joe Harris (15.4) – Just enough for 3.1x value, this whole backcourt is way too crowded for me.
Kenrich Williams (25.9) – He hit value, but his usage just isn’t high enough to justify playing him right now, especially when AD and Randle are playing.
Kent Bazemore (30.9) – He really surprised me last night, he picked up the slack for Len.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Derrick White (41.3) – Both he and Rondo smashed last night, given we didn’t know if Rondo was starting at lock I pivoted to White, but they both paid off!
Willie Cauley-Stein (30.9) – If you pivoted to him off of Len you had a huge advantage on the field.
Lou Williams (32.1) – The 50 burger is coming, and he’ll be unowned when it does.
Dwight Powell (35.2) – 5.6x value that would’ve been over 6x if the Mavs didn’t get blown out last night.
Jamal Murray (38.4) – If you paired him and White, you had a good night. Listen to the Mutt!
Alex Len (8.8) – That’s what you get when you hitch your wagon to Alex Len, either way he likely didn’t hurt you as he was so highly owned and was likely your Drop Score.
Value Traps
Terrance Ferguson ($3,300) – 0.52 FPPM with a 10.6% usage rate. No those aren’t typos, those are his actual stats. On a site like DraftKings that is something you really want to avoid. Yes, he’s cheap and getting a ton of minutes, the problem is he doesn’t do anything with them. He’s averaging over 35 MPG with PG13 out, who is a GTD. He’s averaged under 5x value in each of his last 8 games, yet today he’s projected to hit 5.6x. I really don’t see that happening, especially if George is back tonight. Even if I haven’t convinced you yet, keep in mind that you really need your value picks on DraftKings to have a solid ceiling, Ferguson isn’t going to get you that 7-8x value that you really want from your bargain picks.
Mike Scott ($4,000) – He’s popping as a great value in the RS today, I’m guessing its based mostly off of his last game in which he scored 22 actual points. I’ve been watching the Sixers games and basically all he does on offense is camp out around the 3-point line and wait for someone to kick it out to him. He was 6-9 from 3 in their last game and he doesn’t do much in the way of peripheral stats. If you need value at PF, I would rather roster Bolden as I believe he has the higher ceiling of the two. I’m off Scott tonight as I don’t see him hitting value unless he scores 20+ actual points again.
UPDATE: Jonah Bolden is now questionable tonight, if he sits out tonight then Mike Scott becomes a good value play, even more so if Amir Johnson doesn’t play either. Amir Johnson (if he plays) becomes a decent play as well if Bolden doesn’t play.
CJ McCollum ($6,000) – There are several reasons why I believe McCollum is a trap tonight, considering he is coming in at #2 in the value rankings on the RS. 1) This is a pace-down matchup for the Trailblazers at -3.5. 2) He is very scoring dependent and doesn’t get you much in peripheral stats, and last game out he shot 2-13 from the field and he is a very streaky shooter. 3) The Grizzlies now have Avery Bradley as their primary shooting guard, and he is a really really good defender. 4) Rodney Hood is now seeing over 20 minutes a game, I see him taking a few minutes from McCollum. For those reasons, I’m out on McCollum tonight.
Wesley Matthews ($4,100) – This play is mostly due to the fact that Tyreke Evans is back and will likely see a bit of an uptick in minutes, which will cut into Matthews’ and Cory Joseph’s minutes. I actually really like the Bulls to upset the Pacers tonight as I think they will play down to their level. I’m really not high on any of the Pacers aside from either Collison or Turner, as the Bulls are bad at defending the point guard and center positions. Bojan Bodganovic has also really been stepping up his play lately and I expect him to continue to do so tonight. Matthews also doesn’t have the ceiling I’m looking for in GPPs either.
Just Missed the Cut: Justin Holiday ($3,600) – You should already know by now….just don’t do it.
Who’s Trending
Darren Collison ($5,500) – This is going to be a tight game, and with Tyreke Evans back in the mix it actually helps Collison, as it will keep Cory Joseph’s minutes down a bit. The Bulls are ranked 26th aDvP against point guards and he’s only 5.5K on DraftKings. He’s projected as our top value at 6.8x and I like him to get close to that tonight in a cake matchup. He’s also performed well against the Bulls and is averaging 32 FPPG over his last 10. That’s would net you right around that 6x value tonight and I think he has a floor of around 25 FPs tonight. He definitely has the upside you’re looking for at his price point.
Myles Turner ($5,700) – He’s been having a down last few games, but this is a perfect get right spot for him against the Bulls. His price is simply too low on DraftKings for the type of ceiling he has. Chicago has not been good at defending the 5, and with Sabonis out again, Turner should be locked in for at least 30 minutes tonight. There just simply aren’t any options on tonight’s slate at his price point that have the type of ceiling he does. He has the potential for 9x-10x tonight with a legit shot at a 50 burger.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,200) – Vuc has been absolutely smashing over the past week, as this Magic team has really been surging as they are trying to hang on and make the playoffs.
He’s averaging 50 FPs over his last 10 games, and is still only $9,200. The RS has him projected for 32 minutes and 46 FPs, which I would say more of his floor. With Embiid off the floor Philly simply doesn’t have anyone that can hang with him. The Magic are playing their starters huge minutes as well, and have really cut down on their rotation. He’s in another smash spot tonight.
Ben Simmons ($8,400) – Just look at his numbers with Embiid off the floor:
Embiid has already been ruled out, and the Magic don’t have anyone in their backcourt that can matchup with Simmons’ size. I also expect this game to be relatively close as the Magic are going to come to play in this one. I expect another big night from Simmons and he’s slightly underpriced and should see 35+ minutes in a really good matchup.
Avery Bradley ($4,400) – I know you see the Q next to his name tonight, but he’s listed as probable, which means there’s about an 80% chance he’ll play. He’s scored over 40 FPs in 2 of his last 3, and he is white hot in our model:
He only needs around 20 FPs to hit 5x and just look at what he’s averaging over his last 3. 9.3x value! I have a feeling you’ll need him in your lineups if you want to cash tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Tobias Harris ($8,000) – Revenge game against his former team. I expect the Magic to come out firing in this game as they will really want to win in order to stay in the playoff picture. Harris is going to do everything in his power to prevent that and Embiid is still out.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your FanDuel coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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