Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a very manageable 6 game slate with some decent value opened up. Plus we have people focusing on the start of MLB so we should get a bit less competition as well. Now let’s dig into it.
First let’s look at last article’s traps:
Darren Collison (43.75) – Sometimes the RS just knows, all signs and data were pointing to a let down game.
Tyus Jones (19.75) – Good enough for 3.5x value..yuck
Damyean Dotson (11.75) – Trust the Mutt!
Ivan Rabb (16.25) – JoVal dominated this game, easy fade once JoVal was ruled in.
Now last article’s Who’s Trending:
Bojan Bogdanovic (33.25) – Had a solid game, Collison ended up outperforming him which was surprising.
Pascal Siakam (0) – We got late news that he was coming off the bench, unfortunately his ass never left that seat and the Raptors failed to just say they were resting him…beyond pissed off at this one as my lineups would’ve crushed if he played his normal minutes.
Bruno Caboclo (26.50) – Just under 6x value at his DK price point.
Ben Simmons (52.50) – This one was too easy.
Dwyane Wade (31.25) – Dion Waiters took over in this one, which hurt Wade the most in his last game at the Garden.
Value Traps
Jeremy Lamb ($5,700) – The real story here lies in his numbers in the RS:
This Hornets rotation has been jumbled up big time, with both Lamb and Batum coming off the bench and ceding minutes to both Miles Bridges and Dwayne Bacon. With the Hornets all but eliminated from the playoff race after their last loss, they really don’t have much to play for and will want to continue to develop their young guys. I see Bacon and Bridges getting the majority of playing time in this one, and Lamb playing close to only 20 minutes again. I’ll be avoiding him moving forward.
Gary Harris ($4,400) – This spot was almost Will Barton, but he’s proven me wrong every time I put him in this section, so instead, Harris gets the spotlight today. Take a look at his numbers in the RS over the past 3 games:
The Nuggets are gearing up to make a deep run in the playoffs, and they have a matchup against Golden State on Tuesday, so I see them with their eyes already on that game and I don’t think they’re going to really show up for this one and I see them playing down to Washington’s level. If I had to pick I’d go with Barton over Harris as the game is more suited to his style.
Cheick Diallo ($4,200) – Ahh it was sweet but short lived, Cheick won me a bunch of money a few weeks ago but it appears that his minutes in the rotation are in serious jeopardy with the addition of Christian Wood. Wood appears to be the new darling of this Pelicans rotation, and I expect him to continue to get solid minutes, especially if Davis is out again. Wood essentially ruin’s Diallo’s ceiling and makes him unplayable.
That’s a whole lotta red, and for that reason, I’m out.
Just Missed the Cut: Willy Hernangomez ($3,800) – Usually doesn’t play more than 15 minutes and the Hornets still have both Biyombo and Kaminsky healthy to play the 5. He only played 9 minutes last game and I don’t see him playing more than 15 today, even with the Hornets essentially with nothing to play for. He also doesn’t have the ceiling we’re looking for, which puts the final nail in his trap coffin for me.
Who’s Trending
De’Aaron Fox ($8,200) – Fox gets another juicy matchup tonight, as he has really been coming into form towards the end of the season. He put up 49.8 FPs last night in a touch matchup against CP3 and tonight he gets a juicy matchup against the Spurs who have been bleeding points to PGs throughout the year. They’ve been a bit better over the past 2 weeks, but they are still well below average at defending the PG position. He’s been crushing value as of late, and his price hasn’t budged on DraftKings:
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,900) – He’s been absolutely on a tear lately with Noah out. Noah is a GTD tonight and Conley has already been ruled out, so I think even if Noah plays JoVal still has a great matchup against the Clippers and their horrible interior defense. Take a look at his numbers:
He’s averaging just under 60 FPPG over his last 5 and 45 FPPG over his last 10. Even if he just hits his 10 game average he’s going to get you 5x value. The matchup is just a bonus as we’ve been successful attacking the Clippers with bigs all year.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,100) – Aldridge is a great play tonight against this Kings team as they can really struggle to defend stretch 4’s and Aldridge is one of the best in the league. He’s also averaging 48.3 FPPG and that includes the stinker that he put up last game. He always bounces back strong and in a fast paced game like this, he should be able to get some additional peripheral stats. Sacramento is also ranked 25th aDvP against PFs so he should have his way on the offensive end. I think Aldridge is in line for a big game tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Delon Wright ($5,500) – No Conley or Bradley again tonight and he and Dorsey should see all the minutes they can handle. The Grizzlies have been making every game competitive and I see them doing that again tonight. Both he and Dorsey are solid value plays with some nice upside.
Everyone, end of season NBA is very volatile with late scratches so please pay extra attention to Breaking News today! Stay on your toes!
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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