Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a very manageable 6 game slate with some decent value opened up. Plus we have people focusing on the start of MLB so we should get a bit less competition as well. Now let’s dig into it.
First let’s look at last article’s traps:
Kevin Huerter (22.0) – No upside here with the Hawks backcourt fully healthy.
Donovan Mitchell (49.75) – Broke out of his slump due to the help of Favors and Neto both exiting early in this game.
Gorgui Dieng (34.5) – This seriously came out of nowhere, the OT helped and the Wolves actually won this game which really surprised me. He hasn’t played over 20 minutes in forever.
Wesley Matthews (12.5) – He’s just not worth rostering right now on this team.
Now last article’s Who’s Trending:
Kemba Walker (36.0) – Talk about a let down, great matchup in a must win game, and this whole Charlotte team came out flat. He should’ve dominated in this game and last night pretty much put the nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes.
Al-Farouq Aminu (37.75) – He was awesome last night, got you 8x value.
Trae Young (48.75) – 5.9x value
Seth Curry (15.75) – Another let down, should’ve crushed against this Hawks defense.
Damian Lillard (53.25) – Knew he’d bounce back. Dame $$$.
Value Traps
Darren Collison ($5,400) – Collison really gets a tough matchup here, as Orlando has been doing a phenomenal job of defending PGs through the last 2 weeks. In fact they are actually currently ranked 1st aDvP against PGs at the moment. Over the past few weeks, Orlando is allowing 20% less FPPG to the PG position than the league average so Collison really has his work cut out for him here. I really don’t see him hitting his ceiling here, or reaching that 5.8x value that the RS is projecting him for just based on the matchup alone. Add in the fact that the Pacers are on the second half of a B2B late in the season and Collison is going to also have some very heavy legs. I’m betting he doesn’t break 25 FPs tonight.
Tyus Jones ($5,600) – Since taking over for the injured Teague, Jones has had a few solid games, but over the past couple he’s really been trending downward. He’ll also matchup against Ben Simmons and the 76ers, who are ranked 5th aDvP against PGs on the year. And just like Mr. Collison above, Jones is on the 2nd half of a B2B overtime game against the Warriors, so I expect this whole Wolves team to be a bit sluggish tonight. There’s a few mid-level guys I like better tonight that aren’t as risky as Tyus Jones is tonight.
Damyean Dotson ($5,400) – This is another tough matchup for Dotson and the Knicks, as the Heat really slow down the pace of games and play really solid defense, especially against SGs. Over the last 2 weeks they’re actually allowing the 2nd lowest FPPG to SGs, second only to Detroit. Miami is currently allowing 12% less FPPG to SGs over those same last 2 weeks. Therefore, you can tell that I’m not high on Dotson’s current status. He’s also trending down in the RS as well:
He can likely break out of his mini slump soon, but this isn’t the matchup to do it. He’s only been netting us 3.4x value over his last 3, and is projected for 5.2x today… I’ll take the risk here and pass on that kind of return.
Just Missed the Cut: Ivan Rabb ($3,400) – He’s only a trap if JoVal plays, if JoVal plays Caboclo will likely take the majority of the minutes at the 4 and Rabb will likely only see like 20ish minutes if that’s the case. If JoVal is out then they’ll have no choice but to play Rabb heavy minutes with Noah already ruled out.
Who’s Trending
Bojan Bogdanovic ($5,900) – The first Bogdanovic is trending wayyyyy up in the RS, let’s take a look shall we?
He’s up over 10 FPPG over his last 3 and averaging over 7x value over those same 3 games. Orlando has been a bit tougher on defense lately, but Bogdanovic is playing so well right now I think he’s going to have another great game as he’s really been looking to score lately. I think he easily hits 30FPs tonight and he has some solid upside at the mid-level price range.
Pascal Siakam ($7,900) – You know the drill, Kawhi is out tonight, that means lock and load Pascal. He takes on a whole new role in the Raptors offense when he is out and has legitimate 60+ FP upside tonight. Chicago is also ranked 26th aDvP against PFs on the season which just makes this matchup even juicier. I’m going to be loading up on the future most improved player in the NBA.
Bruno Caboclo ($4,800) – Caboclo is really coming along towards the end of the year and I believe he’ll continue doing that tonight. He’s trending wayyyyyy up in the RS:
He’s averaging over 35 minutes a game when Noah is out, and Noah is out again tonight. He’ll likely start at the 4 again for Memphis and the matchup is JUICYYYYYYYYY tonight against Phoenix. Over the past 2 weeks, the Suns are dead last aDvP against PFs and are allowing the most FPPG to PFs over that same time frame. They are currently allowing 28% more FPPG than the league average and we can take full advantage of that tonight, I plan on doing so.
Ben Simmons ($8,400) – Embiid is out tonight, and Simmons is always my go to when he is out. Ben SMASHESSSSSSSS when Embiid is out and the matchup today is just too good to ignore. Simmons is also only 8.4K on DK and he can easily get 50+ in this matchup. Since Tyus Jones has been filling in for the injured Jeff Teague and Derrick Rose, the Wolves are ranked 29th aDvP against PGs and they don’t have anyone that can matchup with Simmons’ height and length. This game also has a huge total at 231 O/U and I expect there to be a ton of fantasy points scored here. I’m loading up on Simmons as much as I can tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Dwyane Wade ($6,200) – It’s his last game at the Garden and you know he’ll want to put on a show. He should see some great minutes with how thin they are and I think he’s going to have a great game.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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