Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a very manageable 6 game slate with some decent value opened up. Plus we have people focusing on the start of MLB so we should get a bit less competition as well. Now let’s dig into it.
Value Traps
Kevin Huerter ($4,100) – Huerter is popping in the RS today and is currently projected to net 5.7x value tonight but I really see him being on the lower end tonight as he is still adjusting to the NBA towards the end of his rookie year. He is averaging under 20 FPPG over his last 5 and the number is slowly continuing to decline. Also, in his last matchup with Portland he only scored 7.3 FPs. Granted that was with McCollum playing, but he isn’t know for his defense, and the Hawks are at full strength in their backcourt right now which further hurts Huerter’s ceiling. DeAndre Bembry has also turned it on over the last few games which hurts his minutes a bit as well. Huerter just checks too many negative boxes for me tonight to play him with any confidence.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,000) – Just take a look at his stats right now:
…Yikes! He’s averaging almost 11 FPPG less over his last 3 and only getting you 3.1x value over those same 3 games. He’s definitely feeling the effects of the grind that is the NBA ceiling, and I see them trying to limit his minutes a bit over these last few weeks to keep him fresh for their playoff run. I’ll avoid him tonight given all the negative boxes he checks.
Gorgui Dieng ($3,300) – He’s popping again in the RS with Gibson projected to be out again tonight. I’ve covered this several times throughout my articles, and that’s finding value plays that actually have a solid ceiling and the ability to get you that 7-8x value you’re looking for, as you don’t have the luxury of the Drop Score on DraftKings. Dieng epitomizes that, as he has a few things going against him. First, he doesn’t start, which hurts him there. Next, he sees less than 15 minutes a game in his role with Gibson out, so he really isn’t even getting any good run, so that minutes amount really kills any type of ceiling he has. I’m going against the RS in this one, I’d x him out of your player pool tonight, unless you think Golden State blows them out of the water, but even that is risky.
Just Missed the Cut: Wesley Matthews ($4,000) – Bad ceiling, losing over 4 MPG over his last 3 and also only averaging 16 FPPG in that same period….I’ll pass.
Who’s Trending
Kemba Walker ($8,500) – Charlotte is still hoping to sneak into the playoffs and they basically need to win every game from here on out. Kemba has been basically trying to Will this team into the playoffs by himself, just take a look at his stats:
He’s averaging almost 65 FPPG over his last 3 and over 16 more FPPG in those same 3 games. Throw in the benefit that they’re playing the Lakers tonight who have been piss poor at defending PGs without Lonzo Ball, and we have a recipe for another big game from Kemba.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,700) – This whole Blazers starting 5 is going to have to step it up with McCollum and Nurkic both out. Aminu has picked it up his last few games and he is seeing additional minutes and scoring opportunities. He’s averaging 7.3 more FPPG since McCollum went down and the style of game the Hawks play really sets up for him to grab some extra peripheral stats and if he can grab a few extra put backs he’ll crush value. Doesn’t hurt that he also scored 40 FPs last time these teams played and that was with McCollum and Nurkic.
Trae Young ($8,300) – Trae is really making a push to challenge Luka for Rookie of the Year (not going to happen) and gets a really good matchup tonight as he’ll face off with Damian Lillard who isn’t known for his defense, and you know Trae will want to compete against one of the best PGs in the game. He’s also trending way up in the RS:
Sign me up for some Trae Trae tonight.
Just Missed the Cut: Seth Curry ($4,500) – He’s going to continue to see really good minutes tonight with McCollum still out. He also gets a cake matchup against the Hawks who can’t defend the perimeter, he’s a really good value play tonight. Damian Lillard ($10,100) – He really let me down last game, but he gets another really good matchup against the Hawks and he’ll have a ton of usage tonight. I just like Trae a bit more for the discount.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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