Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Welcome to another wacky NBA Sunday, its still early so we’re waiting on some news, but once again I’ll break this down into the two slates, the early and the main. We’ve got 3 games on tap for the early, and 4 for the main slate.
First we’ll look at last articles traps:
Justin Holiday (17.75) – He’s brutal.
DeAndre Bembry (20.75) – Still doesn’t have that ceiling we’re looking for.
John Collins (33.75) – Still not even 5x value, but he improved.
And my picks from last night:
Joel Embiid (45.5) – What a letdown game from Joel, Simmons took over.
Tyler Dorsey (17.75) – I knew there would be fall off from the night before, still almost 6x value.
Marvin Bagley (35.75) – Had a rough first half, made up for it in the second half.
Jonas Valanciunas (48.0) – Dude is white hot right now.
Chandler Parsons (14.0) – Talk about a let down.
Now let’s dig in!!!
Value Traps
Early Slate (4:30)
Cedi Osman ($5,400) – It pains me to put him here, as Cedi the Jedi has made me good money over the past few weeks when Kevin Love and Tristan Thompson were both out. He’s projected at 5.4x value today. The problem I have with him tonight is exactly what I referred to above, both of them are back. Collin Sexton has also really come on in the past few weeks and looks to be the Cavs PG of the future. All of this has had a negative effect on Osman. Over his past 2 games with the Cavs big name guys healthy, he’s only scored 13.75 and 18.0 FPs the past two games. He’s really only playable when Love is out as his usage rate takes away from everyone else. I’ll be avoiding him today.
Thaddeus Young ($5,800) – This one is mostly matchup based as he gets a tough matchup facing off against Paul Millsap and the Nuggets, who are ranked 2nd aDvP against PFs and are ranked 10th overall in total defense efficiency. Over the last two weeks the Nuggets have also been allowing the least amount of fantasy points to PFs which makes this matchup even harder for both him and Sabonis. Run away from this matchup today.
Main Slate (7:00)
Marcus Smart ($4,400) – Let’s just take a look at his numbers over the last few games real quick:
He’s trending way down in the RS, as he’s averaging over 7 FPPG less over his last 3 and he’ll likely be out there only for defense today with Kyrie on the floor. It’s also looking like Hayward may be back today, which will take away some time from Smart’s playing time with the second unit. With all of those factors in line for today’s game, Smart’s ceiling really isn’t there unless Kyrie gets ruled out.
Davis Bertans ($3,300) – The RS is currently projecting him for 5.3x value today, as last game out Rudy Gay got into foul trouble and he saw 27 minutes off the bench. That likely won’t repeat itself today and I don’t see Bertans getting too many minutes in a big game like this, as Pop will want to rely on his starters. He also doesn’t have the ceiling we’re looking for today. I’ll be avoiding this landmine unless we get word that one of the Spurs starters is resting today.
Who’s Trending
4:30 Slate
Miles Bridges ($3,800) – Would you believe me if I were to tell you that Miles Bridges was the 2nd hottest player in our model behind James Harden? Well….believe it or not, check it out:
Something is clearly wrong with Nic Batum, as he’s now coming off the bench and Bridges is seeing significant minutes as a starter along with Dwayne Bacon. Batum has actually just been ruled out today. He’s averaging 35.3 FPPG over his last 3 and over 9x value over that same time span. I watched this Charlotte team the other night, and Bridges is all over the place with hustle plays, grabbing rebounds, etc so given his minutes spike I feel that his floor is pretty safe today. There aren’t many value plays on a 3 game slate that can get you 9x value…just saying.
Nikola Jokic ($9,900) – This should be a tight game as Indiana always keeps games competitive and he’s averaging over 50 FPPG over his last 3 and they’ll need him in this game big time if they want to come out with a win. Normally I would write up Giannis in this spot, but if he plays I don’t see anyway that the Cavs can keep that game close, which would hurt his ceiling big time. However, if Giannis is out then I would say plug and play both Khris Middleton and Eric Bledsoe. For your top pay up option however, Nikola is the guy you want on this slate.
Just Missed the Cut: Tyreke Evans ($4,300) – This one really depends on the health of Darren Collison. If Collison plays in today then it will knock Evans out of this spot as the RS is way undervaluing him, but it is also assuming that Collison will play. With Collison out, he’s seeing almost 30 MPG and averaging 27 FPPG over his last 3. If he’s out again today, Evans is another free square for us.
7:00 Slate
James Harden ($11,500) – Harden is really coming on late in the season, and he’s actually a bit underpriced right now given his recent production. Take a look at his numbers:
He’s averaging over 60 FPs over his last 10 and just under 77 over his last 3! Now they get a matchup with the Pelicans. This should be a very high scoring game and Harden always has the potential to break the slate and go for 90+. He scored 60 actual points last game and is looking to put the finishing touches and seal the deal on his MVP season. I expect another big game from him today.
Kyrie Irving ($8,800) – He’s way too underpriced on DraftKings today given the matchup against the Spurs. He’s averaging over 6x value over his last 3, and the Spurs are still not great against PGs, but they have been getting better. The big thing is that the Celtics are coming off a very disappointing loss last night and need a win badly today. I expect Kyrie to come to play today and I see this being one of his better games this year. If we get word that he is sitting out tonight, then replace this play with Terry Rozier who’s only $5,100 BUT ONLY IF IRVING IS OUT!
Just Missed the Cut: Alex Caruso ($4,100) – He’s projected at 6.2x value today and I think that is very realistic given the matchup with the Kings today. He’s averaging 28 minutes over his last 3 games and saw 34 last game and LeBron is questionable today. If he’s out, that bumps up Caruso even more as it will put the ball in his hands more. This is also a fast paced matchup against the Kings with a bunch of steal opportunities and Caruso thrives on those.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I’m your FanDuel coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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