Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Ahhh gotta love NBA on the weekends, no jobs to distract us and we can relax and get a full day of research in. We’ve got another 7 game slate tonight and I see a few traps that I think will wreck your lineups, but only if you let them! Let’s get into it.
First we’ll look at last articles traps:
Michael Carter-Williams (15.75)
Landry Shamet (24.25)
Now we’ll look at last nights picks:
Delon Wright (35.75) – 7.3x value🔥🔥🔥
D’Angelo Russell (49.5) – 6x value🔥
Fred VanVleet (20.8) – Very disappointing game from him.
Kawhi Leonard (52.5) – 5.9x value🔥
Tyler Dorsey (49.75) – Just a cool 16.9x value…🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Now let’s dig in!!!
Value Traps
Justin Holiday ($4,000) – Welcome back to my list Mr. Holiday! He’s currently being projected at 5.8x value but we’re smart and we’re not going to play him! Especially with Mike Conley back tonight. Add Tyler Dorsey and Delon Wright into the mix which takes away even more usage from his sad 15.5% rate that he already has. He’s only playable if both Bradley and Conley are out, and I expect Dorsey to play big minutes after his performance last night. Holiday really just doesn’t have the ceiling that we’re looking for tonight and there’s a ton of better value out there.
DeAndre Bembry ($3,500) – Not really sure where this is coming from, but he’s currently popping in the Research Station and I’m not sure why. The Hawks are back at full strength which pushes Bembry to the bottom of the minutes pile. He’s averaging less than 20 minutes per game and over that same time he is only averaging 17 FPPG, which isn’t going to cut it for a value pick. We want guys that can get us 6-7x value with ease, and Bembry simply isn’t in a spot right now where he can do that.
Just Missed the Cut: John Collins ($7,000) – He’s trending downward at the highest clip in our model. He’s averaging over 13 FPPG less over his last 3 and he’s also playing less than 30 minutes a game. He appears to have hit an end of the season wall and the Hawks get a tough matchup against Philadelphia. I don’t see them keeping this one close, especially with Collins not playing at a high level.
Who’s Trending
Joel Embiid ($10,700) – Embiid is reddddd hot over the past few games, just take a look:
He’s AVERAGING 70 FPPG over his last 3 which is absolutely insane. Throw in the matchup with the Hawks who are ranked 30th overall aDvP against centers on the year. They really don’t have anyone who can stop him and if the Hawks can keep this one close, I can see Embiid going for another 75+ FPs in this one.
Tyler Dorsey ($3,400) – He is in another great spot tonight, and should see close to another 30 minutes in this one. Conley being back hurts him a little bit, as it will likely take a few minutes away from him but with Bradley out he’ll still get significant run. We’ve seen what his ceiling is (see last night) where he went for over 40 FPs and while I don’t expect him to do that again tonight, he should easily get you 25-30 with a bit of upside.
Marvin Bagley ($6,300) – He’s still way too cheap since coming back from injury, and he’s back to playing his full minutes. He’s trending way up in the RS:
Now he gets a primo matchup against a terrible Suns defense in one of the hammer games of the night. Play Bagley tonight and see yourself shoot up the leaderboard late at night, or wake up to some money…whichever you prefer!
Jonas Valanciunas ($6,800) – Especially if Noah is out again tonight. If that is the case, fire up JoVal and don’t look back. However, if Noah is playing that bumps him down slightly, but the matchup is still good as Minnesota is ranked 22nd against Centers as KAT is still a below average defender. He has legit 60+ FP upside again tonight, but I would be shocked if he does that again. But at 6.8K a 50 burger will still net you over 7x value.
Just Missed the Cut: Chandler Parsons ($3,700) – He’s at the top of our model averaging over 15 FPPG more over his last 3 and he’s really rounding into form and seems to be over all of his injuries. At only 3.7K he should see good run tonight and could net you 8-9x value.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I won’t be available after 3:45 today) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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