Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re playing on FanDuel as well, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got a smaller than usual 7 game slate for a Friday night, and value has opened up all around, so we have to be careful again tonight.
Last Article’s Traps:
Henry Ellenson (22.75) – He still performed decently, but there were a ton of better value options on last night’s slate that you didn’t have to go chasing Ellenson and the unpredictable Knicks.
Kyle O’Quinn (14.0) – Dudded just like we thought, unless Turner is out, O’Quinn is unplayable at this point.
PJ Tucker (11.25) – Harden took over last night, Tucker was an afterthought in this offense and didn’t have the peripheral stats, so he was basically useless.
Just Missed the Cut: James Harden (95.25) – Well….that’s what I get for doubting the Beard. He took over that game last night and his shots were really falling. Lesson learned, always keep him in the player pool.
Now we’ll look at my picks from last article:
Darren Collison (33.25) – Hit for 5.5x value and was a great cash play. The surprising thing was Cory Joseph going off for over 40 last night. Collison was still a good play.
Karl-Anthony Towns (70.25) – KAT SMASH!!! He’s been on a tear since the All-Star Break. Looks like that car accident put the fear of god in him and he’s taking it out on everyone on the hardwood.
Bam Adebayo (26.75) – He was an easy plug and play and hit over 6x value, just what we’re looking for.
Klay Thompson (26.25) – Hopefully you paid attention to my notes yesterday in the coaches forums, I switched off Klay to Mitchell as a core play with the Rubio and Neto news, he dudded in this matchup though.
Tobias Harris (48.75) – 6.7x value and almost a 50 burger. Loved Harris last night.
Derrick Favors (36.75) – 8.2x value, he was an easy value pick last night.
Jonah Bolden (20.75) – He looked good against Adams last night, if he saw a few more minutes he would’ve likely crushed even more. He’s 10x better than Mike Scott.
Alright, lets get into today!
Value Traps
DeMarre Carroll ($3,800) – He’s been the one who’s been most effected by LeVert and Crabbe coming back. He’s now playing less than 20 minutes per game, and with that little playing time he doesn’t have the upside we need in a value pick. We also have news that Dinwiddie is back tonight which further muddies this Nets rotation. I’m staying away from him tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($5,900) – My Celtics are a mess right now, and Tatum has been playing horribly as a result. He’s trending downward everywhere:
The Wizards are ranked in the bottom 3rd of the league in defense, but this Celtics team really is a mess right now, and if anyone is going to get them headed in the right direction, it’s likely going to be Kyrie. I’m not a fan of playing Tatum unless Kyrie is out and at his current price, I don’t see him hitting value tonight with the C’s at full strength. I’d rather pay down for Marcus Morris.
Josh Jackson ($5,000) – Jackson’s production has fallen off a cliff lately:
Jackson has stepped into the starting role lately, moving Mikal Bridges into the 6th man role. Bridges has been playing over 30 minutes off the bench in that role, which has effected Jackson the most. As you can see, he’s averaging over 10FPs less per game and his minutes are trending downward big time, he’s losing over 6 minutes of playing time per game over his last 3. Keep an eye on the Devin Booker news, he’s a GTD tonight and if he sits out then Jackson would be bumped out of this list and be a solid play. But Booker played 33 minutes last game and I expect him to play tonight, making Jackson one of my traps.
Just Missed the Cut: Ed Davis ($4,200) – I’m not going to be paying over 4K for him with the Nets back to full health. If he was under 4K I would maybe consider him, but he’ll likely see less than 20 minutes, and where you can’t afford value to bust on DK, Giles at $3,100 makes wayyyyy more sense.
Who’s Trending
DraftKings has some softtttttttt pricing on a bunch of guys in good spots tonight, and we can take full advantage!
Harry Giles ($3,100) – With Bagley out, that opens up some additional minutes for Giles tonight. He see’s solid usage at 23% with the second unit and he’s a solid FPPM producer at over 1 FPPM:
I don’t expect him to take over Bagley’s role, I expect he and WCS will split those minutes and even Harrison Barnes to get a few extra minutes, so don’t expect him to jump to over 30 minutes tonight. I think realistically he see’s 20-25 minutes tonight and which gives us a range of 21-27 FPs as his floor, which is still over 6x value already. He showed last game with Bagley going down that he can produce, as he went off for 30 FPs in only 17 minutes. Giles has the upside we’re looking for tonight especially in GPPs. He’s trending up as well averaging 7x value over his last 3:
And who are they playing tonight? That’s right…..the Clippers, and we know they can’t defend bigs. It’s gonna be hard for me not to have him in all my lineups tonight.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($4,500) – You had to see this one coming after Giles right? He played over 30 minutes last game (went to OT) and Bagley wasn’t injured until the end of the 3rd quarter. Him and Giles should split those minutes so he should get close to, if not a little more than 30 minutes tonight against the weak Clippers interior. He definitely have 50 point upside tonight, which would get you over 10x value. I’ll have a lot of lineups with WCS and Giles tonight. He will be highly-owned though, so make a few lineups without him in case he busts.
Moe Harkless ($3,800) – Harkless has quietly been tearing it up since the All-Star Break and has had his minutes increased as a result. Take a look at his numbers in the model:
That’s a lot of green, and his ownership will be a lot lower than both Giles and WCS tonight. People will also flock to Bembry who’s min priced, I’m not as high on as everyone else tonight. Harkless is averaging over 5 additional minutes per game and over 12 FPPG over his last 3. This will be a competitive game and the Blazers will likely give their starters a few additional minutes tonight as they will want to beat Toronto.
Tyler Johnson ($5,000) – TyJo is really starting to settle into his role in Phoenix, and has been playing really well actually. The Suns have been experimenting at PG all year and Melton and Okobo aren’t the answer, which is why they went out and got Johnson. His play hasn’t gone unnoticed and he is seeing over 30 MPG and gets a cake matchup against the defensive liability that is Elfrid Payton. Just take a look, he’s really picked it up since joining the Suns (Payton is also trending, but I like TyJo slightly better tonight as you get a slight discount):
I think you can even get creative and play both of them tonight as the Suns can’t defend guards either. Jrue will be on a minutes limit and they’ll likely task with guarding Booker, so I’m looking for TyJo to have a great game tonight.
LeBron James ($11,400) – With all the soft pricing on DraftKings tonight, you’re gonna have plenty of salary to pay up for some studs tonight, and the King has been invigorated since the All-Star break and will continue to try to will his team into the playoffs. I like him over Giannis tonight, who seems to be having some knee issues, and I’ll be all in on LBJ if we get word that Giannis will have his minutes monitored again tonight, especially on DK where we have the late swap flexibility and he is $200 cheaper.
In a premier hammer game against the Eastern Conference’s best team, LBJ will come out firing and will want to make a statement. You can definitely go stars and scrubs on DK tonight as there is a ton of value. I expect LeBron to have the highest FP total on the night.
Other Guys I Like Tonight: Trae Young ($8,100) – He’s really come on and is white hot tonight. He’s also playing 40 minutes a game and averages 1.16 FPPM. That puts him right over 5x value with 60 point upside. Julius Randle ($8,000) – With AD on his minutes limit, Randle has been making the most of it, should play around 35 minutes against a pitiful Suns defense tonight.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your FanDuel coach for tonight!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
