Hello DFS Army members and we are now into the month of March! My name is Steve aka Mutt18. I am one of the new content contributors here at DFS Army and I’m very excited to be a part of the team! I am @mutt_18 on Twitter as well, so give me a follow for any updates on this article as I will tweet them out. A little background about me, I’ve been grinding DFS for about 5-6 years now. DFS helped me pay my way through college and I am now a full-time firefighter. I love the challenge that DFS brings and my main sports are basketball, football, and baseball. I play on both FanDuel and DraftKings and today we will be focusing mainly on DraftKings. I am also working on a Tutorial Article of how to use the RS Who’s Hot and Clock Watch tools to your advantage.
This article will be expanding into some new territory here at DFS Army as we will be looking at Value Traps. A value trap, also referred to as a land mine, are a player that jumps out either in the Domination Station or Research Station as representing value but in reality they really have no way of making value, either through inconsistent play, lack of opportunity, or they are just a bad play in general. These plays are often the ones that either make or break your lineups. My goal in this article is to dig a bit deeper and use all the great data available to us in the DS and RS and help try to identify those “Value Traps” that will destroy your lineups and end up costing you money. By identifying them my hope is to help educate you on what to look for and how to avoid these lineup killers. From there I will also be focusing on some of the lesser known tools available in the Research Station, specifically the Who’s Hot, and Clock Watch sections that can help us identify those players trending in the right direction that we can identify and use before the rest of the DFS world catches on.
If you’re also playing FanDuel tonight, the Drop Score is a new wrinkle that we can use to our advantage, for advice on using the Drop Score: PLEASE READ THIS ARTICLE!
Tonight we’ve got another split Sunday slate with a 2 game early slate, which I wouldn’t recommend playing too heavily, and a 6 game slate that locks at 6pm. I’ll give you one trap for the early games, with 2 of my picks, and a regular breakdown for the main slate. First let’s look at last night’s article:
Last Article’s Traps:
Vince Carter (20.0) – Returned solid value, but really didn’t provide any upside. You were just fine without him in your lineups.
Allen Crabbe (19.0) – This Brooklyn backcourt is simply too crowded and Russel and Dinwiddie really dominate the usage.
Josh Okogie (11.0) – Even with Wiggins out I still wasn’t high on him, as he simply isn’t a good fantasy player right now.
Now we’ll look at last article’s picks:
Bobby Portis (41.0) – 7.2x value, just what we needed.
Karl-Anthony Towns (72.0) – 6.9x value! At over 70 FPs he was the highest scorer on the slate, you needed him in your lineups if you wanted to win money last night.
Rajon Rondo (25.5) – No Ball, No Ingram and LBJ on a minutes limit and this Lakers team is now in full tank mode. I like their backups to see a lot of playing time, Rondo really didn’t seem interested last night.
Spencer Dinwiddie (44.0) – 7.9x value, guards against the Hawks…this one was easy.
CJ McCollum (41.25) – 6.8x value even with the blowout!
Now let’s dig into tonight!
Value Traps
Early Slate:
Normal Powell ($3,100) – With only 2 games on the early slate this is a bit tougher than usual. We’ve got the usual “Kawhi doesn’t play on Sunday” which opens up value for a lot of the other Raptors. Last week Jeremy Lin started and did absolutely nothing, so I would expect either OG Anunoby or Normal Powell to start. Of the two I’d prefer Anunoby as he has the higher ceiling as he gets more peripheral stats, whereas Powell only scores fantasy points if his shot is falling. In a toss up like this, I’ll take the guy with the higher ceiling all day long, especially on a 2 game slate.
Just Missed the Cut: Jeremy Lin ($3,600) – We all saw what happened on Jeremy Lin chalk day last Sunday, just don’t do it.
Main Slate:
DeAndre Bembry ($3,600) – Just take a look at what has happened to his stats with Huerter, Bazemore, and Prince all back:
He’s averaging almost 5 less FPPG and his minutes have gone down to under 20 minutes a game. Right now he’s projected to net you 5.2x value, but he’s only averaging 4.2x over his last 3 and his minutes continue to trend in the wrong direction. We like to have a more balanced roster construction on DraftKings, and I don’t think Bembry is worth the risk with his lack of upside.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($4,800) – With Hardaway in Dallas, his upside is really capped as he’s now not the primary option on offense and it has effected his fantasy point production. At 4.8K we’ll be looking for him to hit 30 FPs to hit that 6x value we’re looking for in GPPs, however, he’s only scored 30 or more FPs in 10 of his last 13 and with Luka playing I expect him to dominate usage on the offensive end along with Dwight Powell as you can attack the Rockets inside. He’s very reliant on actual scoring for his fantasy point production and I’m always hesitant to roster guys like that. We also have a legitimate blowout risk in this game as I don’t see the Mavericks hanging with the Rockets, especially after the Rockets beating the Sixers by 16, Raptors by 12, and Celtics by 9 in their last 3 games.
Just Missed the Cut: Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,500) – I expect Dennis Smith Jr. to continue to play over 30 minutes per game, especially if the Knicks actually get a shot at winning this game if both KAT and Wiggins are out tonight. This effects Mudiay the most as both Trier and Dotson are dominating the minutes at the 2 as well. I just don’t see Mudiay having one of those random 30-40 FP games he puts up once in a blue moon. He’s also averaging over 8.5 less FPPG over his last 3.
Who’s Trending
Early Slate:
Myles Turner ($6,500) – Turner is still only 6.5K and has been scorching hot over the past few games, just take a look:
He put up almost 60FPs his last game, and this is a very winnable game for the Pacers and I expect them to come to play today. Their rotation has gotten a lot tighter as well as with the playoffs are right around the corner and Turner is averaging over 33 MPG over his last 3. At only 6.5K he has serious 50+ point potential as he showed last game out. He could very well break this 2 game slate. I actually like him better if Embiid plays because Joel isn’t a great defender and they will be battling it out downlow which could lead to another Turner block party.
Pascal Siakam ($7,100) – Simply put, when Kawhi is out, play Siakam. He sees the biggest usage bump on the team at +6% and pushes him up to a 27.2% usage rate. The likely Most Improved Player of the Year can fill it up in all categories and he’s shown us when Kawhi is out he has 60+ FP upside. He’ll be chalky today but I think it’s chalk you need to eat.
Just Missed the Cut: Kyle Lowry ($7,600) – Another easy play with Kawhi already ruled out. Has 50 FP upside and sees the second biggest usage bump at +3.9% bringing him just under a 25% usage rate. Dragic is not a good defender and Lowry should take full advantage.
Main Slate:
John Collins ($7,500) – Even if we get word that he’s on a 30 minute limit again tonight, I still like Collins, especially if Dedmon is out again. Take a look at his numbers in the RS:
He’s scorching hot, and put up over 60 FPs in 29 minutes last night. The minutes limit doesn’t really worry me too much as he was playing around 30 minutes before he got injured. The Pelicans are ranked 22nd against the PF and he’ll play some 5 too if Dedmon is out. I like him more if AD is out (I think he will be) as this will be a fast paced game with a ton of scoring. Him and Trae Young are my favorite Hawks.
Frank Jackson ($4,200) – Jrue Holiday has already been ruled out tonight which means Jackson will likely start at the SG tonight and played 37 minutes. With that type of time he only needs 20 FPs to hit 5x, which should not be a problem against this Hawks defense. Remember people, play guards against the Hawks. Don’t overthink it.
Julius Randle ($8,500) – He’s a core play if AD is ruled out tonight. He will see a ton of minutes against a bad Hawks interior and has legit 60 FP upside in a fast paced game like this. He should be able to do whatever he wants to downlow.
Just Missed the Cut: Delon Wright ($4,600) – I like him more if Conley decides to take the night off, but with Avery Bradley a GTD as well I expect Delon to see significant minutes either way. He’s averaging over 8 FPPG more over his last 3 and averaging 7.6x value. He’s a core play if either Conley or Bradley are out tonight.
As always, keep your eyes peeled for updates as we get news closer to lock. All my updates will be in BOLD.
That’s all I got for today guys, any questions feel free to hit me up in the coaches forums (I am your DraftKings coach today!) or via Twitter (username is at the top of the article) Now let’s go get that money!
Come join the Army and start counting your winnings! Use code: MUTT18 for 20% off!
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