Flynnie’s Forecheck for 3/7/19
We’re back!! After a long off-season of watching the greatest love story since Romeo and Juliet – obviously, I’m talking about Alex Ovechkin’s love affair with the Stanley Cup – it’s time to play some hockey. For those of you that are new to the DFS Army, my name is Rob Flynn. I’m an NHL DFS writer and coach inside the DFS Army. We have the best articles, coaching, and tools in the industry. But let me tell you, the real money is made in the Slack chat that only our VIP’s have access to. That’s where we talk through a member’s lineup construction, thought process, or just answer any DFS questions they may have. Every coach is very accessible and willing to share our own processes to help every member grow as a player.
I wrote an article describing some of my process and some tips to win. Check it out here. We also have a brand new Research Station that is only available to VIP’s but here is the tutorial, to give you guys a taste of what’s coming this season. When you sign up to become a member, use promo code PUCK to give yourself 20% off for the life of your membership.
NHL DFS is very similar to DFS MLB. The volatility can be maddening, the floor of every player is ZERO and you need stacking in all contests. In cash games you need at least two players that correlate on either the scoring line or power play, to hopefully grab the goal and an assist. In GPP’s you need to stack the entire line and hope that line goes off for multiple goals.
Take a peek at our latest winner. DFSA is on fire over NBA All Star Break and would love to help you learn the game of hockey, as well! Whether you are already a VIP or are just passing by, our coaches can teach the rookie and veteran alike. Congrats to Handleyrs for a near 300 score and over $850 in winnings!!
Without any further ado let’s dig into today’s 11-game slate.
I am primarily a cash/hybrid player but even that requires some stacking. So, I list my favorite and then I take the pieces from those stacks that fit my lineup construction. Unlike last season, I will put my stacks, D-men, and goalies in order of my preference.
NHL FORWARDS
CHI 1 – Kane, Toews, Saad: On most of these big slates we have to ask ourselves “Kuch or Kane?” Tonight it isn’t close in my opinion. This is Patrick Kane all day. Two goals on 34 shots in the last 5 games!! That is Banana Land. Kuch is in play and especially if you are MMEing this slate you should have exposure to both. This game has the highest over-under at 7.0 Check out Beat the Bookie to see if that increases and Kaner is on another level right now. Adding Brandon Saad to this line increases their floor tremendously as well as the incredible ceiling they already had when Cagguila was on this line.
BOS 1 – Marchand, Bergeron, Heinen: This is has tucked six goals in the last 10 and get a matchup against FLA who has been trending in the wrong direction in all the defensive categories. They are in the bottom half of the league in goals allowed, shots allowed and high danger chances allowed. Since Heinen hasn’t been great, I don’t mind putting Debrusk or Krejci in that stack for PP correlation. Krug is also another option. Basically, I’m saying play a lot of Boston tonight!
SJ 1 – Pavelski, Couture, Meier: They are the top line for the team with the highest ITT on the slate. I expect some fireworks here. Price is not easy to score on by any means but this line has 12 points combined over their last 5 games and MTL has good defensive peripheral numbers (shots and HD chances allowed), but they are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in goals allowed over the last 10. This makes a fantastic late night hammer stack.
Other stacks
TB 2 – Kucherov, Point, Johnson
BUF 1 – Reinhart, Eichel, Skinner
MTL 1 – Tatar, Danault, Gallagher
COL 1 – Rantanen, MacKinnon, Landeskog
STL 1 – Schenn, O’Reilly, Tarasenko
NYR 1 – Vesey, Zibanejad, Kreider
MTL 2 – Byron, Domi, Shaw
ARI 2 – Hinostroza, Richardson, Panik
NYI 1 – Lee, Nelson, Eberle
STL 2 – Thomas, Bozak, Maroon
MIN PP1 – Donato, Staal, Zucker (Spurgeon to replace a winger or make a 4 man )
OTT 1 – Tkachuk, White, Gibbons
Maybe prop bets are your thing, too? We are quickly expanding coverage into the different realms of sports betting!
DFS Studs on DEFENSE
Burns: Karlsson is out, the offense runs through him. He won’t sneak up on anyone, but don’t worry about ownership on a slate this size. Get a lot of exposure to Brent Burns in all formats and let other people make the mistakes.
Edler: Fanduel’s algorithm never seems to catch up to this guy. He is in a good spot tonight and a borderline must play in cash on FD because of that cheap price tag. He is in play on DK but I’d focus most of my ownership to FD where he is $1400 cheaper.
Gustafsson: He has found his stride again averaging almost 25 FD points a game over his last 5. This game should shoot out and Gustafsson will see ice time with both of CHI’s top 2 lines and overlap with a lot of them on the PP.
Honorable Mentions: Hedman, Klingberg, Ekman-Larsson, Krug, Schultz, Dahlin, Yandle, Ekblad, Weber, Nurse, Barrie
GOALIES Set to Bring Value
**All stats are over the last three weeks unless otherwise noted**
Rask: 4-0-1/1.75/0.932 The Panthers are the #2 team in scoring over the last 10 games but their shots are trending down and they are #28 in the league in high danger chances over that same span. I haven’t even mentioned how hot Rask and the whole team has been for over a month now. I think this leads to a lot of relatively easy saves for Tuukka tonight and a win. ALL FORMATS
Greiss: 2-2-0/1.88/0.934 He came in in relief of the ineffective and injured Lehner two nights ago and pick up a two-save win. He’s obviously going to need to do more than that tonight against this same Senators team. It wouldn’t shock me if Ottawa scored a few tonight, but Greiss has been the much better Islanders goalie of late and they need to keep beating the teams they are supposed to beat if they want to hang on to a playoff spot. GPP
Koskinen: 5-4-2/2.47/0.922 I don’t expect a lot of action in front of him tonight, VAN is among the worst in the league in goals scored, shots for and HD chances for over the last ten days. If you want to play a lot of studs tonight, Koskinen is about the cheapest I would go in net. GPP
Honorable Mentions: Kuemper, Bishop, Vasilevskiy, Allen, Varlamov
GOAL PREDICTION: Mika Zibanejad
Remember guys, always confirm the starters after Morning Skate.
I generally have this article out in the morning. If you guys have any questions reach out to me on Twitter or in our coaching forums. If not already a member, join the DFS Army today by using Promo Code PUCK to save 20% off your membership for life.
