Donuts to Dollars

The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy NBA articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal DFS model and projections.

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My Personal NBA Model for DraftKings

Enes Kanter, as expected, comes in as my top rated player in my personal model. It really isn’t that close either. I have him projected at 30 minutes, which could be a conservative projection. The Bulls are a sad team right now and Kanter should absolutely dominate the paint and his 1.25 DraftKings points per minute rate highlights a massive scoring ceiling.

His DraftKings price is just $5,000 and I would expect that his ownership rate is going to be quite high on Wednesday. The main way to avoid getting trapped in a chalksplosion (good or bad) is to make sure you are either way overweight or underweight against the field. For instance, if you think Kanter is going to have a 35% ownership rate, then make sure you have 10-15% if you want to be underweight or have 65-75% if you want to be overweight. In either case, you are not moving with a herd of lineups.

I personally plan on locking him into 100% of my lineups on DraftKings. That’s right, I said “lock”. I don’t get cute with Daily Fantasy NBA and routinely preach to members in our chat that getting cute leads to sub-optimal approaches.

Deandre Ayton gets a delicious matchup against the Wizards (second worst team in the NBA against opposing centers according to rebounding rate). Ayton has a 1.1 DraftKings points per minute rate over the last month and has played 30 or more minutes in 7 of the last 9 games. His scoring has been volatile, ranging from 19.25 all the way up to 57.50. This type of volatility will likely lead to an opportunity to plug in a talented center in a good matchup at a lower ownership rate than he should have.

The great thing about DraftKings is position eligibility and flexibility by using the guard, forward, and utility spots. Kanter and Ayton both being only center eligible doesn’t hurt our MME file or single entry lineups, because we can just plug them both in at center and utility. I am going to do everything I can to get as much exposure to my top two rated players on Wednesday.

The Bulls will likely be shorthanded once again in the showdown with the Trailblazers and might not have Lauri Markkanen on top of already being without Kris Dunn, Zach LaVine, and Otto Porter. That means the bevy of value plays are still an option. Ryan Arcidiacono, Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, and Shaq Harrison all should get plenty of minutes at affordable prices. I see no reason not to plug in multiple Bulls and going heavy on my top two rated players and then filling the final couple of spots with the highest projected players on the slate.

Russell Westbrook is averaging 1.48 DraftKings points per minute over the last month and has a higher ceiling than anybody else on the slate. At the very least, he has the highest probability of hitting his ceiling. Damian Lillard is someone to stack with the plethora of Chicago Bulls players that you use in the hopes that the game stays close enough for Lillard to get a full compliment of minutes. Lastly, Devin Booker, Paul George, and Bradley Beal should round out the rest of your higher priced targets in various exposure amounts.

If you’re planning on mass-multi entering (MME), then be sure to read up on my suggestions using my game notes inside the “Donuts to Dollars Spreadsheet”.

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