Donuts to Dollars

The modus operandi of the majority of my Daily Fantasy NBA articles, videos, and podcasts is to deliver compelling evidence through analytics, trends, and useful data as to why a player or team is an ideal target to invest in. In this daily column, I will point out the top value plays based on my personal DFS model and projections.

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The Chicago Bulls will be without Zach LaVine, Kris Dunn, and Otto Porter. This team was blown out last game when shorthanded and I don’t expect the Bulls to make this game worthy of attacking the Raptors side. However, the Bulls offer up significant value due to the injury riddled rotation and extra court time several of their cheaper priced players will receive.

Ryan Arcidiacono is currently the highest rated player in my Donuts to Dollars model. While his scoring ceiling is capped (just 0.76 DraftKings points per minute over the last month), minutes should be abundant. If Ryan ends up playing in the mid-30’s, he could return 8-9x value for just $3,800. Temper expectations but enjoy the salary relief.

Karl-Anthony Towns is my second highest rated player on the entire slate. He has massive potential in this matchup against the Clippers and his price tag is affordable ($10,700). I’ll have very high exposure to KAT on DraftKings on Tuesday. His 1.79 DraftKings points per minute over the last month is second to none and he should play as many minutes as he can handle. This game has a 230.0 point total and the Timberwolves are currently 2.5 point underdogs at home.

Thomas Bryant is going to be the starting center for the remainder of the season and he has back to back strong outings. Because of the extra court time, Bryant has scored 36.00 and 33.25 DraftKings points over the last two starts while playing 35 minutes in each game. He is currently my fourth highest rated player, right behind Larry Nance Jr., who I’ll have in my MME player pool but am not as confident in him as I am Bryant.

Lauri Markkanen is my fifth highest rated player using my personal model and I think Lauri has an insane ceiling if all the Bulls remain out. We saw him have a 37.6% usage rate in the last game and had scored 34.00 DraftKings points in just 26 minutes of court time. If Lauri receives 30+, like he had in the previous two games, I see no reason why he cannot explode and return 45-50 points even in a blow out. In fact, the last three times that he has had a usage rate over 30.0%, Lauri scored 35.50, 39.75, and 34.00 DraftKings points. Great price, great floor, and a tremendous ceiling. Love this play at the power forward or forward spot in the lineup.

The Celtics will be without Al Horford or Kyrie Irving, and potentially might not have Jayson Tatum either. They are very shorthanded and have a delicious matchup against the Cavaliers. Marcus Smart, Gordon Hayward, Jaylen Brown, and Terry Rozier are all in my top-20 rated players using my personal model. However, do not go crazy and just start jamming in a bunch of Bulls and Celtics value. We still need to worry about our scoring ceiling.

I personally suggest using the guys with the highest ceilings rather then just grabbing value. Rolling with Jaylen Brown and Lauri Markkanen with Ryan Arciadano as the salary saver is a great start to any single build lineup. If you’re planning on mass-multi entering (MME), then be sure to read up on my suggestions using my game notes inside the “Donuts to Dollars Spreadsheet”.

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Trae Young exploding in his last game for a massive 58.50 point DraftKings score probably will boost his ownership levels up a little bit. However, I don’t think he’ll be mega chalk or anything like that so I hope my followers do what I say and continue to NOT GET CUTE. Trae has been incredible over the last month, averaging 1.40 DraftKings points per minute (Only James Harden and Luka Doncic have averaged more at the guard position for the main slate). The Pelicans and Hawks game has a massive 240.0 point total and the spread is just 1.0 point in favor of the Pelicans.

John Collins is just $7,300 and although his minutes have been capped around 30 as of late, he is averaging 1.41 DraftKings points per minute and I like the idea of rolling out both Trae and John and running it back with Ian Clark or Frank Jackson if Elfrid Payton ends up missing the game. If not, then look to run back the 2-1 stack with Julius Randle. Outside of those options, I see no reason to go elsewhere.

Marvin Bagley is just a cheat code until his price tag is over $8,000. He has scored 36.75, 39.25, 47.50, 35.75, and 47.75 in his last five games with four of the games ending with minutes played over 29 for the youngster. Bagley should dominate the Mavs down low and his 1.35 DraftKings points per minute over the last month should get a nice boost on Tuesday after another good outing. He’s a high floor option with a strong ceiling.

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