Welcome to the DFS Army NHL Game Break!! You have to start your research somewhere, and often times going game by game thinking about matchups and key players is the first step in our process. I’m your buddy @Choppodong and you can find me on both Twitter and YouTube with supplemental commentary and teaching. But, you’ll really find me in our VIP coaching forums inside coaching and detailing plays and strategic hockey maneuvers across all our main sports. If you are looking for it, we cover it! Follow me, watch me, interact with me, I welcome it all.
NHL DFS Matchup Rankings L10 Games
Last 10 games sample size. Home teams in white, away in gray. GF = Goals For, GA = Goals Against. MU Score is a combined metric showing how one matchup tonight compares to the others on paper. Green is good, red is bad. We are looking for the best matchups of teams scoring goals facing teams allowing goals. Not exactly rocket science, so don’t overthink it.
My plan is to describe the games some and drop quality players in these lists. You will get my player pool (VIPs might get bonus plays in our coaching forums later). My cash players are those I would happily use in head-to-head formats, 5050 contests, small leagues, and even some larger leagues. They will anchor my lineups in all formats and contain a lot of value plays and/or punts. The core gets you to the dance. The slightly funky plays off your core push you into the gpp money. Your core is everything! Even gpp-only players need a core of solid production to build from.
Buffalo Sabres @ Toronto Maple Leafs
Odds – TOR -260, 6.5 o/u
Buffalo enters tonight showing us mediocre numbers, but the Eichel/Skinner combo has been productive lately. We also know the defensemen, Ristolainen/Dahlin, are depended on for scoring, too. So, we have targets. I just don’t know how much I’d stack them up being we have clearly better options tonight. Goalie – Ullmark is GPP relative being his wins have been very good, but his losses have been very bad. He’s a gamble.
5 star plays – Eichel (C), Skinner (W), Reinhart (W)
4 star plays – Ristolainen (D), Dahlin (D)
Cash gamers – Eichel
GPP Sleeper –
Toronto has the stronger paper matchup, but BUF ranks only 5th in terms of goals allowed on the slate. We are banking more on the Leafs offense here. That means Matthews, Tavares, and Rielly most times. However, the last 10-ish games show a ton of playables tonight. Goalie – You would think the -260 from Vegas would make Anderson a stronger play, but looking at his recent form, he’s been giving a lot of 3 goal games up. Tonight depends on the overall team defense of Toronto, as the win will hinge on the skaters out in front of Anderson……GPP only.
5 star plays – Matthews (C), Tavares (C)
4 star plays – Rielly (D), Marner (W), Johnsson (W), Hyman (W), Marleau (W), Kapanen (W), Nylander (W)
Cash gamers – Matthews, Rielly, Johnsson
GPP Sleeper – Getting off Matthews and Tavares is risky, but one way to set yourself apart if you want to be in the chalk offense but still unique.
Montreal Canadiens @ New Jersey Devils
Odds – MTL -145, 6 o/u
Montreal ranks up there with MU Score on the slate, but they aren’t exactly an offensive machine at the moment. A big part of this is New Jersey allowing goals lately off poor goaltending. We can strike hard here, but more in GPPs than cash games where we might want to focus on the higher MU Scores. MTL is usually lower owned, even when using their core scores of Gallagher, Weber, etc. So, we can leverage the field with a sneaky play here should it work out tonight. Goalie – Carey Price is interesting here. He lost 5 of his last 7, so I’m not super safe in predicting a win, but he has also only allowed 4 goals twice in that span, so he might not kill us either. I dont see him winning the slate for gpps, and I don’t feel too safe in the win, so he’s really just a weird flyer that the more we look at it doesn’t make a ton of sense. (Edit – Seeing Schneider opposite Price makes me feel better about that win….and stacking MTL skaters. Schneider has won 3 in a row recently, but those are quite literally his only 3 wins on the year. There are a LOT of 4s and 5s in his goal against column when he starts……he’s still a target.)
5 star plays – Gallagher (W)
4 star plays – Domi (C), Weber (D), Tatar (W), Drouin (W)
Cash gamers – Domi , Tatar
GPP Sleeper – Any stack here will be a little lower owned…..low enough to do damage should it hit hard.
New Jersey has been a nice source of value lately, and sneaky, too. Palmieri is the biggest “brand name” on the team right now, but plenty of others are still producing at somewhat solid clips for their salaries. I might focus on cash, one-off plays here before a stack. But, a value stack isn’t completely out of the question if you want to. Goalie – Schneider is a hard pass. If I’m trashing him above, I’m not rostering him below.
5 star plays – Hischier (C), Johansson (W), Palmieri (W)
4 star plays – Bratt (W), Greene (D), Wood (W), Severson (D)
Cash gamers – Bratt, Greene, Wood, Severson
GPP Sleeper – They will be sneaky, but I’m not likely heading here. If I do, I’m game stacking being Schneider will be likely allowing goals, too.
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Los Angeles Kings @ Tampa Bay Lightning
Odds – TBL -340 (opened at -315), 6 o/u (“Gambooler’s Rule” – when you see a -300+, stack against it)
I like the “Gambooler’s Rule” a lot and will contemplate it with Los Angeles tonight. But, I don’t see much in the way of how it will get done. There just isn’t a lot of ceiling in these guys. But, if I was in a large field gpp, I’d focus on the PP1 being it has the names/talent on it. Goalie – Of course, you don’t have to play Quick here just because you stack against the Lightning. Odds are this is a shootout if that happens, and it’s a long shot at that.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Kopitar (C), Kempe C), Toffoli (W), Kovlachuk (W)
Cash gamers – none
GPP Sleeper – PP1 if you dare!
Tampa Bay is our MU Score leader with a 7.1 tonight. In most cases, this is an all hands on deck scenario. However, the -300 makes me take gpp pause. I’ll load up in cash games and with solid percentage of MME builds, but I won’t focus here with single-entry or 3max type gpp game plans. I’ll opt for the fade there. Kucherov and Point are steady hands, but plenty of stacking combos abound here with plenty of upside. The smart DFS play is to get a few of these guys in your lineups if not looking for a leverage narrative. Goalie – Vasilevsky is among the leaders in wins, save pct, goals against, and is just a darned good goalie. Running him out nightly is your safest play to consistently hit the win. He’ll cost you, but he’s usually money in the bank if you can also find the value to compliment him. He’s likely the safest goalie on this slate, too.
5 star plays – Kucherov (W), Stamkos (C), Point (C)
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – Kucherov, Point
GPP Sleeper – probably not here tonight
Edmonton Oilers @ Nashville Predators
Odds – NSH -265, 5.5 o/u
Edmonton will make this easy on us tonight. There are a few cash safe one-offs here, but nothing powerful enough to stack with any reasonable expectation they will go off vs the defense-first Predators. Of course, just saying that means EDM scores 6 tonight and makes me the fool. But, in their last 10 meetings with NSH, the Oilers average a whopping 1.7 goals per game and carry a 1-8-1 record. Not good for DFS NHL targets. To reiterate, one-offs are fine, but gpps are a no go. Goalie – Nope. Next question.
5 star plays – Draisaitl (W),
4 star plays – McDavid (C) …if back, Nugent-Hopkins (C) …gets bump again if McD misses, Nurse (D)
Cash gamers – Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Nurse
GPP Sleeper – no way
Nashville is another offense we should like tonight based on MU Score. By comparison to the slate, they are one of our top 3 offenses and one we should even look to in cash formats. Roman Josi and the top line of Forsberg and Johansson are typically where we look, especially at home. Kevin Fiala offers some cheap exposure, but really hasn’t done much with the opportunity. Goalie – Rinne is expensive and prone to duds at random, but he is one of our safest options tonight being the lack of firepower EDM brings to the table. The win is likely here if we run this slate 100 times.
5 star plays – Josi (D), Forsberg (W)
4 star plays – Johanssen (W), Ellis (D)
Cash gamers – none super safe lately, but not gpp-only in this matchup either.
GPP Sleeper – probably not…i’d like to see more ceiling because they will carry ownership in this matchup
Florida Panthers @ Colorado Avalanche
Odds – COL -145, 6.5 o/u…..leaning on the over
Florida, by nature of cheap skaters, has a lot of names on this list today, too. I like them for value, but not a lot for tourney stacks. Our last two games tonight have very lackluster potential if we simulate the slate 100+ times. Your keys, though, are in play for the Panthers in Barkov, Dadanov, Yandle, etc. Goalie – GPP only with the firepower of COL coming at you.
5 star plays – Barkov (C), Huberdeau (W)
4 star plays – Hoffman (W), Yandle (D), Dadanov (W), Vatrano (W), Trochek (C)
Cash gamers – Barkov, Huberdeau, Dadanov, Trochek
GPP Sleeper – very sneaky, not sure I can do it…..but Trochek/Dadanov/Hoffman has a ton of gpp-winning potential
Colorado might be finally regaining form, but they still refuse to fully reunite MacKinnon, Rantanen, and Landeskog outside of their power play. I don’t like breaking apart Landeskog and Soderberg, either, as those two were clicking. I am torn on how it will affect the value of Soderberg at his current price, and I can lay off for a bit and take a “wait and see” approach to him for awhile. Goalie – Varlamov has won three of his last four and four of his last five. On that stretch, he has a shutout and a very solid 1.4 goals against average. Hot goalies win many contests. He might not be at the top of your list, but he should be near the top.
5 star plays – none quite yet, but getting closer
4 star plays – Soderberg (C), Landeskog (W), MacKinnon (C), Nieto (W)…should he return to action
Cash gamers – Landeskog, Nieto, Soderberg
GPP Sleeper – PP1 of MacKinnon/Landeskog/Rantanen if you can afford it
Anaheim Ducks @ Vancouver Canucks
Odds – VAN -135, 5.5 o/u….leaning strong to the under (sign to avoid for DFS)
Anaheim doesn’t garner much of my attention being they just slipped back to Turdsville after showing a little sign of life. Pass all around. Goalie – also a pass.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – none
Cash gamers – Getzlaf (C)…if you really are a Ducks fan
GPP Sleeper – sure, if you enjoy watching money burn
Vancouver faces a putrid team in the Ducks, but the Canucks are pretty putrid themselves. I’m not focusing on stacks here, and I don’t see so much value here that also contains upside that I must spend time researching either team. I mean, there are some value plays to list, but you can likely do fine without even reading this far today. So, thanks to those that did. Goalie – better than the ANA option, but not great being he won’t see much shot volume to provide much of a floor. You really need the win here to make this viable, and a 1-1 game in a shootout might not be the stress relief you are looking for, either.
5 star plays – none
4 star plays – Petterson (C), Boeser (W), Horvat (C), Stetcher (D)
Cash gamers – Horvat, Stetcher
GPP Sleeper – nope
Here is a one game view of our NHL Research Station matchup page. My daily videos typically walk you through this page and point out how I quickly decipher the best plays on the slate. When you unlock access to this page, you get team stats with large and small sample sizes to pick up trends, all the basis statistics, pricing, scoring lines, power play lines, scoring production including shots and blocks, and you get it all in one easy to read view. But, you only get it as a VIP. 99% of the stats I reference are directly from this single page. Your research has never been easier!!
Favorite NHL DFS Stacks for Tonight…
What is NHL without stacking?!
TBL1 – Kucherov, Point, Johnson
TOR1 – Tavares, Hyman, Marner
BUF mini – Eichel/Skinner is consistent and productive
NSH1 – Josi, Forsberg, Johansson
GPP Sleeper stack = FLA2 – You really get a ton of upside with Hoffman, Trochek, Dadanov tonight. COL hasn’t given up a ton of goals against lately, but they went through a spell where they did…..so they are prone. To win a gpp, you need to hang it out there, and this is one of the shorter list spots I’d take my shot. For chalk stacks, sneaky stacks, and others, you will have to ask inside our coaching forums this afternoon…
Hopefully, those pointers get you started in your research. I will be bouncing in and out of our NHL coaching room all day, with the rest of our coaches, to guide anyone with questions. I plan to drop a slate video showing our research process most days, and with a little time, our VIPs request shorter, strategy videos to help them shore up fundamentals, too. All free videos can be found on my YouTube channel, but all VIP videos need the key to unlock the vault.
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I hope to see you inside soon. Have a blessed day.
